Jungherr, Andreas

Mader, Matthias

Schoen, Harald

Wuttke, Alexander

LSE Research Online

For	free	trade,	but	against	TTIP:	public	opinion	andthe	backlash	against	globalisationTrade	policy	has	reemerged	in	the	headlines.	Politicians	and	activists	from	the	right	and	the	left	of	the	politicalspectrum	challenge	the	idea	that	free	trade	benefits	everyone.	Negotiations	about	new	trade	agreements	fail	andexisting	agreements	are	suspended.	It	even	seems	like	trade	policy	might	develop	into	a	wedge	issue	in	nationalpolitics	and	international	relations.	This	raises	the	importance	of	understanding	how	the	public	thinks	about	trade.We	examined	this	question	in	a	recent	study	financed	by	the	Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung	and	the	ArbeitgeberverbandGesamtmetall.	Both	the	study	and	the	underlying	survey	data	are	publicly	available.	The	survey	was	conducted	inSpring	2016	and	asked	a	sample	of	8388	German	citizens	about	their	opinions	on	the	principle	of	free	trade	and	aspecific	trade	agreement,	the	Transatlantic	Trade	and	Investment	Partnership	(TTIP).	To	identify	the	drivers	of	theseattitudes	we	asked	an	extensive	set	of	additional	questions.	TTIP	was	at	the	center	of	public	discourse	at	the	time,which	means	that	we	took	a	snapshot	of	what	was	on	citizens’	mind	at	the	time	when	these	questions	were	currentand	decisions	imminent.The	first	finding	of	our	study	raised	more	questions	than	it	answered.	We	found	that	while	a	majority	supported	freetrade,	only	one	in	five	respondents	supported	TTIP.	The	largest	group	in	the	sample	combined	a	positive	attitudetowards	free	trade	with	a	negative	attitude	towards	TTIP.	So	what	explains	this	difference	in	attitudes?	Did	citizensthink	that	free	trade	had,	by	and	large,	positive	economic	implications	but	this	particular	agreement	was	economicallydisadvantageous?	Or	were	different	reasons	responsible	for	coming	to	such	different	conclusions	about	thedesirability	of	free	trade	on	the	one	hand	and	this	specific	trade	agreement	on	the	other?Table	1.	Cross-tabulation	of	attitudes	towards	free	trade	and	TTIPNote:	Reported	are	cell	percentagesLSE Business Review: For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation Page 1 of 5		Date originally posted: 2018-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/04/for-free-trade-but-against-ttip-public-opinion-and-the-backlash-against-globalisation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/Our	study	shows	that	economic	considerations	were	neither	important	in	evaluating	free	trade	nor	TTIP.Respondents	assessed	the	general	principle	of	free	trade	in	line	with	their	predispositions	toward	an	open	societyand	international	collaboration.	While	these	were	relevant	to	some	extent	for	the	assessment	of	TTIP	as	well,	mostimportant	for	this	evaluation	were	their	attitudes	towards	the	partner	country,	USA,	and	topics	at	the	centre	ofGerman	public	discourse	on	the	agreement,	such	as	the	perceived	influence	of	interest	groups	in	societies	and	theneed	for	regulation	for	consumer	protection.	These	issues	are	not	directly	related	to	trade	as	such.	Nonetheless,knowing	a	respondent’s	position	on	these	object-specific	issues	tells	us	more	about	her	likely	assessment	of	TTIPthan	her	opinion	on	free	trade	in	general.	Conversely,	attitudes	towards	free	trade	had	little	influence	on	supportingthe	specific	instance	of	free	trade	manifested	in	TTIP.Figure	1.	Determinants	of	attitudes	toward	free	trade	and	TTIPLSE Business Review: For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation Page 2 of 5		Date originally posted: 2018-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/04/for-free-trade-but-against-ttip-public-opinion-and-the-backlash-against-globalisation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/Note:	Reported	are	OLS	coefficients	and	95%	confidence	intervalsLSE Business Review: For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation Page 3 of 5		Date originally posted: 2018-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/04/for-free-trade-but-against-ttip-public-opinion-and-the-backlash-against-globalisation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/To	understand	public	support	or	opposition	to	specific	contemporary	trade	agreements	it	is	thus	not	enough	tounderstand	what	drives	attitudes	toward	free	trade.	It	is	necessary	to	account	for	the	topics	salient	in	the	particularpublic	discourse	about	the	agreement	in	question	—	this	discourse	may	revolve	around	topics	as	diverse	as,	e.g.,straightforward	economic	implications,	special	interests	superseding	democratically	legitimised	decisions,	andconcerns	over	consumer	protection.	To	some	extent	the	public	will	pick	up	this	discourse	and	echo	it.	The	reasonswhy	citizens	support	or	oppose	any	given	trade	agreement	can	thus	only	be	understood	in	context.Shaping	public	opinion	on	a	specific	trade	agreement,	thus,	demands	engagement	with	the	arguments	alreadypresent	in	public	discourse	or	making	an	effort	to	redefine	how	citizens	are	thinking	about	the	agreement.	It	is	amistake	to	assume	that	the	public	always	interprets	an	agreement	as	an	expression	of	trade	in	general,	equating	theformer	and	the	latter.	Put	differently,	in	the	public	mind	there	is	no	natural	connection	between	the	principle	of	tradeand	specific	agreements.	This	connection	has	to	be	made	explicit,	by	communicating	actively	about	the	agreement	inquestion.Our	findings	point	to	a	central	challenge	in	understanding	the	current	backlash	against	economic	globalisation.Citizens	may	support	or	oppose	the	principle	of	free	trade	and	specific	agreements	for	different	reasons.	If	we	fail	torealise	this	we	run	the	risk	of	misunderstanding	public	opinion.	Measures	taken	by	decision	makers	that	are	based	onthese	misunderstandings	might	then	lead	to	unintended	outcomes.	In	a	time	of	loose	talk	about	trade	wars,	Brexit,and	widespread	public	opposition	toward	trade	agreements	like	TTIP	and	CETA—a	time	when	internationalintegration	has	come	under	attack	from	the	right	and	the	left	side	of	the	political	spectrum—a	precise	understandingof	this	opposition	is	crucial.♣♣♣Notes:This	blog	post	is	based	on	the	authors’	paper	Context-driven	attitude	formation:	The	difference	betweensupporting	free	trade	in	the	abstract	and	supporting	specific	trade	agreements.	Review	of	International	PoliticalEconomy,	2018,	25(2):	215-242.	This	post	gives	the	views	of	its	authors,	not	the	position	of	LSE	Business	Review	or	the	London	School	ofEconomics.Featured	image	credit:	Photo	by	Tom	Driggers,	under	a	CC-BY-2.0	licenceWhen	you	leave	a	comment,	you’re	agreeing	to	our	Comment	Policy.Andreas	Jungherr	is	an	assistant	professor	at	the	Department	of	Politics	and	Public	Administration	atthe	University	of	Konstanz.	His	work	focuses	on	political	communication	and	the	effects	of	digitaltechnology	on	politics.	He	also	examines	the	use	of	digital	trace	data	in	the	social	sciences.	He	is	theauthor	of	Analyzing	political	communication	with	digital	trace	data:	The	role	of	twitter	messages	insocial	science	research	(Springer:	2015).Matthias	Mader	is	a	research	associate	at	the	University	of	Mannheim.	His	researchinterests	include	political	psychology,	foreign	policy,	and	party	politics.	He	co-authored	Old	friends	in	troubled	waters:	Policy	principles,	elites,	and	U.S.-Germanrelations	at	the	citizen	level	after	the	cold	war	(Nomos:	2016).	Harald	Schoen	is	a	professor	of	political	science	at	the	University	of	Mannheim.	His	research	focuseson	political	behaviour,	political	psychology,	and	public	opinion.	He	has	published	widely	on	thesetopics	in	articles	and	books.	LSE Business Review: For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation Page 4 of 5		Date originally posted: 2018-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/04/for-free-trade-but-against-ttip-public-opinion-and-the-backlash-against-globalisation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/Alexander	Wuttke	works	for	the	German	Longitudinal	Election	Study	(GLES).	His	research	focuseson	the	link	between	political	participation	and	psychological	theories	of	motivation.		LSE Business Review: For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation Page 5 of 5		Date originally posted: 2018-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/04/for-free-trade-but-against-ttip-public-opinion-and-the-backlash-against-globalisation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/

For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation

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For free trade, but against TTIP: public opinion and the backlash against globalisation

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