On June 5th Golden State voters selected Lieutenant Governor Democrat Gavin Newsom and businessman and Republican John Cox to face off in the fall gubernatorial election. Renée Van Vechten writes that Newsom is boldly liberal, even for a deep blue state like California. Only a new slate of more moderate state Democrats, she argues, will be able to rein in his tendencies which otherwise might prove too liberal – and expensive – for most Californians

Van Vechten, Renée

LSE Research Online

This	year’s	mid-term	election	results	will	test	just	howliberal	California	really	isOn	June	5th	Golden	State	voters	selected	Lieutenant	Governor	Democrat	Gavin	Newsom	andbusinessman	and	Republican	John	Cox	to	face	off	in	the	fall	gubernatorial	election.	Renée	VanVechten	writes	that	Newsom	is	boldly	liberal,	even	for	a	deep	blue	state	like	California.	Only	a	newslate	of	more	moderate	state	Democrats,	she	argues,	will	be	able	to	rein	in	his	tendencies	whichotherwise	might	prove	too	liberal	–	and	expensive	–	for	most	Californians.Just	how	“liberal”	is	too	liberal	for	Californians?	A	fresh	crop	of	elected	officials	will	test	their	limits	after	the	roiling2018	November	midterm	election	waters	have	calmed.For	eight	years	Governor	Jerry	Brown,	a	pragmatic	intellectual,	has	navigated	the	“blue”	waters	by	keeping	thesupermajority	Democratic	legislature	in	check,	often	saying	“no”	to	redundant	laws	and	big-ticket	items	such	asuniversal	health	care	that	could	jeopardize	the	budget,	using	multi-year	surpluses	to	pay	off	public	debt,	andchampioning	large-scale	infrastructure	projects	that	he	considers	necessary	to	meet	the	needs	of	40	millionresidents,	such	as	high-speed	rail	and	a	water	tunnels	project	(“CalFix”)	to	ensure	reliable	water	delivery	for	thirstysoutherners.	Brown’s	grand-vision	projects	have	been	roundly	criticized	as	exorbitant,	and	his	opponents	also	lamentskyrocketing	housing	prices	and	new	gas	taxes	for	road	repairs	that	squeeze	real	dollars	from	household	budgets.Republicans	are	also	incensed	by	environmental	regulations	that	they	say	make	the	state	less	business-friendly	andassail	pro-immigrant,	“sanctuary	state”	laws	that	place	California	at	the	vanguard	of	anti-Trump	politics.Republicans	are	only	25	percent	of	registered	voters	in	California,	their	levels	having	dropped	even	below	that	of	“noparty	preference”	voters,	or	registered	independents,	who	number	just	above	25	percent.	Nearly	45	percent	identifyas	Democrats,	meaning	that	California’s	state	government	is	overwhelmingly	“blue”	because	most	independents	voteDemocratic	even	as	they	reject	partisan	labels.	Unless	Republicans	can	persuade	virtually	all	independent-mindedvoters	plus	some	Democrats	to	join	them,	the	tide	will	favor	Democrats	in	the	2018	state	elections	and	the	new	crewis	likely	to	steer	the	ship	of	state	into	deeper	liberal	waters.Former	San	Francisco	mayor	and	now	Lieutenant	Governor	Gavin	Newsom	will	be	at	the	helm.	Having	bested	26other	candidates	and	captured	the	top	spot	on	the	ticket	with	a	third	of	the	statewide	vote	(Democrats	collected	62percent	overall),	he	endorses	paid	family	leave,	minimum	wage	hikes,	marriage	rights	for	all,	and	most	daringly,universal	healthcare—virtually	all	of	which	are	opposed	by	the	Republican	gubernatorial	contender,	John	Cox,	whoearned	second	place	in	the	primary	with	just	over	25	percent.	Because	of	California’s	“top	two”	primary	system	thatenables	the	two	candidates	with	the	most	votes	to	face	off	in	the	general	election,	the	Republican	Party	was	indanger	of	being	washed	out	of	the	race	as	former	Democratic	Assembly	Speaker	and	Los	Angeles	Mayor	AntonioVillaraigosa	fought	Cox	for	the	second	spot.	Now	Cox	has	the	chance	to	make	his	case	that	California	is	adrift	andcan’t	afford	yet	more	liberal	politics.	But	a	majority	of	the	public	is	not	on	his	side.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: This year’s mid-term election results will test just how liberal California really is Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-06-26Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/06/26/this-years-mid-term-election-results-will-test-just-how-liberal-california-really-is/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/“Lieutenant	Governor	of	California,	Gavin	Newsom	and	Jennifer	Siebel,	SF	Pride	2015”	by	Thomas	Hawk	is	licensed	under	CC	BYNC	2.0President	Trump’s	recent	endorsement	of	Cox	hardly	provides	a	hook	to	bring	independents	on	board.	An	opinionpoll	of	likely	voters	conducted	in	May	2018	by	the	Public	Policy	Institute	of	California	(PPIC)	shows	that	while	75percent	of	Republicans	approve	of	the	way	Trump	is	handling	his	job	as	president,	merely	36	percent	of	the	state’sindependents	and	10	percent	of	Democrats	do.	Overwhelming	majorities	of	Democrats	and	independents	believeimmigrants	are	a	benefit	the	state,	whereas	most	Republican	voters	do	not.	Californians	are	also	pro-environmentand	have	taxed	themselves	to	breathe	easier	and	drink	cleaner	water,	voting	to	retain	the	state’s	climate	change	law(AB32)	and	to	endorse	a	single-use	plastic	bag	ban.	Republicans	generally	regard	these	laws	as	regulatoryoverreach.There	are	limits	to	voters’	embrace	of	pro-social	policies	and	their	tolerance	for	taxes,	however.	Excluding	CaliforniaRepublicans	who	reject	the	very	idea	of	state-managed	health	care	by	two-thirds,	a	majority	of	adults	favor	such	aplan,	but	their	support	drops	by	more	than	twenty	points	if	it	requires	raising	taxes.	With	a	new,	single-payer	systemthat	would	cost	upwards	of	$400	billion	according	to	a	state	legislative	committee	analysis—twice	the	amount	of	theannual	state	budget—Newsom’s	initiatives	may	be	bold,	but	he	is	headed	toward	uncharted	waters.Democrats	are	likely	to	maintain	their	supermajority	status	in	the	state	Assembly	and	also	may	regain	it	in	the	upperhouse,	potentially	giving	Newsom	the	unfettered	chance	he	needs	to	pursue	his	policy	agenda.	Buoyed	by	fellowDemocrats,	in	office	he	will	put	his	campaign	slogan	to	the	test:	“Courage.	For	a	change.”That’s	where	the	top-two	primary,	combined	with	districting	effects,	may	start	to	matter	in	a	new	and	different	way.Although	legislative	scholars	haven’t	found	much	evidence	that	the	top-two	primary	has	moderated	the	legislaturemarkedly,	which	was	a	principal	goal	of	political	reformers,	they	have	noted	that	more	Democratic	moderates	areserving	in	the	legislature.	Those	representatives	benefit	from	the	support	of	anti-Trump	independent	voters.	With	thehelp	of	Governor	Jerry	Brown	and	his	veto	pen,	for	the	most	part	they	have	kept	extremism	at	bay.	For	instance,	only7.6	percent	of	197	bills	labeled	“job	killers”	by	the	California	Chamber	of	Commerce	from	2011	to	2017	became	law.That’s	a	pretty	good	score.With	an	emboldened	liberal	Democrat	as	governor	come	December	2018,	a	moderate	(but	still	left-of-center)	bloc	inthe	legislature	may	have	the	chance	to	emerge	as	the	greater	check	on	fellow	Democrats	who	want	to	shift	theagenda	even	further	leftward,	playing	the	role	Brown	once	did.	California	government	may	be	deep	blue,	but	thestate’s	electorate	is	a	far	lighter	hue.	Moderating	forces	have	kept	the	ship	of	state	from	sinking,	and	looking	past2018,	Democratic	leaders	might	find	out	the	hard	way	that	ideological	extremism—perceived	or	real—is	not	a	tidethat	will	lift	all	boats.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.													USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: This year’s mid-term election results will test just how liberal California really is Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-06-26Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/06/26/this-years-mid-term-election-results-will-test-just-how-liberal-california-really-is/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Note:		This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USApp–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	nor	ofthe	London	School	of	Economics.Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	http://bit.ly/2tFq9JsAbout	the	authorRenée	Van	Vechten	–	University	of	RedlandsRenée	Bukovchik	Van	Vechten	earned	her	doctorate	in	Political	Science	from	the	University	ofCalifornia,	Irvine.	She	is	a	professor	of	Political	Science	at	the	University	of	Redlands	in	southernCalifornia,	where	she	specializes	in	teaching,	researching,	and	writing	about	US	and	California	politics,with	particular	focus	on	legislative	processes.	Her	text,	California	Politics:	A	Primer,	is	in	its	fifth	edition(CQ	Press,	2019),	and	presages	a	more	comprehensive,	forthcoming	textbook	(The	Logic	of	CaliforniaPolitics).USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: This year’s mid-term election results will test just how liberal California really is Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-06-26Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/06/26/this-years-mid-term-election-results-will-test-just-how-liberal-california-really-is/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

This year's mid-term election results will test just how liberal California really is

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This year's mid-term election results will test just how liberal California really is

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