Whilst the people and the government of Bangladesh have set a shining example for the world in terms of offering sanctuary to the Rohingya, David Lewis assesses the potential repercussions on the immediate area and beyond for this act of generosity

Lewis, David

LSE Research Online

The	view	from	Cox’s	Bazar:	assessing	the	impact	ofthe	Rohingya	crisis	on	BangladeshWhilst	the	people	and	the	government	of	Bangladesh	have	set	a	shining	example	for	the	world	in	termsof	offering	sanctuary	to	the	Rohingya,	David	Lewis	assesses	the	potential	repercussions	on	theimmediate	area	and	beyond	for	this	act	of	generosity.Since	August	2017	hundreds	of	thousands	of	people	from	the	Rohingya	minority	have	been	forced	toflee	Myanmar	into	the	Cox’s	Bazar	area	of	south-eastern	Bangladesh,	following	a	horrific	campaign	ofgovernment-led	violence	that	the	UN	Commissioner	for	Human	Rights	has	warned	could	be	judged	a	case	ofgenocide.This	recent	event	has	been	by	far	the	largest	movement	of	Rohingya	into	Bangladesh,	but	the	issue	is	far	from	new.The	need	for	Bangladesh	to	provide	shelter	to	refugee	Rohingya	has	been	a	recurrent	one	at	least	since	the	1962military	coup	that	brought	the	army	to	power	in	Burma.	Smaller	influxes	have	taken	place	in	1978,	1991-2	and	2012.There	is	an	uneasy	relationship	between	these	culturally	related	yet	distinct	incomers	and	the	wider	Bangladeshpopulation.	But	the	people	and	the	government	of	Bangladesh	have	set	a	shining	example	for	the	world	in	terms	ofoffering	sanctuary	to	the	Rohingya,	whose	condition	and	stories	of	state-sponsored	violence	are	reported	to	haveshocked	even	Bangladesh’s	hardened	border	guards	as	they	entered	the	country.Recently,	attention	has	rightly	been	mainly	focused	on	the	plight	of	these	almost	a	million	forcibly	displaced	people,now	living	in	makeshift	shelters	near	the	town	of	Cox’s	Bazar,	a	small	fishing	community	and	Bangladesh’s	mainbeachside	tourist	destination.As	the	recent	House	of	Commons	International	Development	Committee	report	points	out,	the	conditions	of	violence,squalor	and	insecurity	being	endured	by	the	Rohingya	people	(now	the	inhabitants	of	what	is	probably	the	world’slargest	refugee	camp)	will	become	even	worse	unless	proper	preparations	are	made	for	the	coming	monsoon	rains.These	threaten	to	destroy	their	makeshift	shelters,	many	of	which	are	located	on	recently	deforested	hill	slopes.But	the	Rohingya	crisis	also	raises	some	worrying	issues	for	Bangladesh’s	own	fragile	politics	economy	and	society.Few	observers	now	believe	that	there	is	any	realistic	chance	for	the	refugees	to	return	to	Myanmar	in	the	foreseeablefuture,	as	was	confirmed	by	Ursula	Mueller,	the	UN	Assistant	Secretary-General	for	Humanitarian	Affairs	on	a	recentvisit	to	Myanmar.	Moreover,	there	are	many	people	who	increasingly	believe	they	will	never	be	able	to	do	so.A	Rohingya	youth	walks	along	the	outskirts	of	Balukhali	camp,	Cox’s	Bazar.	Photo	credit:	David	Lewis.South Asia @ LSE: The view from Cox’s Bazar: assessing the impact of the Rohingya crisis on Bangladesh Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-04-11Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2018/04/11/the-view-from-coxs-bazar-assessing-the-impact-of-the-rohingya-crisis-on-bangladesh/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/One	of	many	Sheikh	Hasinabanners	around	Cox’s	Bazar.Photo	credit:	David	Lewis.First	is	the	economy.	While	international	support	has	cushioned	some	of	the	initial	costs	to	the	government	of	hostingthe	refugees,	the	longer	they	stay	the	more	of	these	costs	the	government	will	have	to	shoulder.	The	extent	will	onlybecome	apparent	when	the	hundreds	of	foreign	aid	workers	and	organisations	have	moved	on.	Furthermore,	thepresence	of	the	Rohingya	is	impacting	dramatically	on	the	local	economy	of	the	area.	As	aid	money	and	internationalhumanitarian	personnel	have	poured	in	to	the	area,	the	price	of	essential	goods	(such	as	basic	foodstuffs)	in	the	localmarket	has	skyrocketed.	At	the	same	time,	local	wages	have	become	depressed,	with	Rohingya	willing	to	work	forhalf	or	even	one	third	of	the	local	daily	unskilled	wage	rate.There	are	also	fears	that	the	Bangladesh’s	increasingly	important	tourist	industry	–	which	is	centred	on	Cox’s	Bazarbeach	not	far	from	the	Rohingya	camps	–	could	easily	become	vulnerable	if	the	local	area	becomes	unstable.	Thisfear	stands	in	stark	contrast	to	Myanmar’s	own	tourist	industry,	which	appears	to	be	largely	unaffected	by	the	crisis.Second	are	the	reports	of	growing	problems	of	crime	and	security.	The	government	and	army	have	been	widelypraised	for	their	efficient	work	in	dealing	with	the	crisis,	and	achieving	a	measure	of	order	and	stability	in	animpressively	short	time.	But	there	are	reports	of	growing	problems	both	inside	and	outside	the	camps.	Occasionalcases	of	intra-Rohingya	violence	have	led	to	the	need	for	additional	policing	being	put	in	place.	The	camps	serve	asa	magnet	for	people	smugglers,	sex	traffickers,	and	drug	dealers.A	major	worry	is	the	possibility	that	Rohingya	youth,	traumatised	and	with	little	to	do,	who	are	not	allowed	into	localschools,	and	who	have	recently	suffered	violent	discrimination	on	the	basis	of	their	religion,	could	be	easy	fodder	forlocal	and/or	international	Islamist	recruiters.	Bangladesh	is	still	recovering	from	its	own	recurrent	militancy	problemsthat	flared	up	again	during	2016	with	several	attacks,	including	an	unprecedented	murderous	attack	on	a	restaurantin	Dhaka’s	diplomatic	zone.There	are	already	a	few	reports	of	Rohingya	leaving	the	camps	other	parts	of	the	country,	such	as	Rohingya	arrestedin	Khulna	for	trying	to	illegally	obtain	a	Bangladesh	passport.Third,	there	are	the	political	risks.	Prime	Minister	Sheikh	Hasina’s	ruling	Awami	League	party	is	criticised	by	manycitizens	as	having	become	increasingly	authoritarian	in	its	determination	to	hold	onto	power.	Some	have	accused	hergovernment	of	having	undermined	democratic	institutions,	appeased	both	military	and	religious	interest	groups,	aswell	as	of	narrowing	the	space	for	independent	civil	society	and	press.There	is	now	a	severely	weakened	political	opposition	and	its	main	leader	KhaledaZia	recently	jailed	on	corruption	charges.	With	a	general	election	due	to	be	held	bythe	end	of	the	year,	the	country	is	braced	for	more	of	the	instability	that	has	oftencharacterised	elections.There	are	international	dimensions	to	these	political	risks	too,	with	India	andBangladesh	at	loggerheads	over	a	common	border	characterised	as	one	of	theworld’s	worst	in	terms	of	smuggling,	trafficking	and	killings	by	Indian	borderguards.	The	Indian	government,	worried	about	the	presence	of	militant	groups	onits	borders,	will	also	be	concerned	that	some	Rohingya	have	been	caught	illegallyentering	India	through	Bangladesh.Despite	ongoing	negotiations	between	the	governments	of	Bangladesh	andMyanmar,	it	was	recently	announced	that	fewer	than	400	Rohingya	have	beengiven	permission	by	the	Myanmar	regime	to	return	(though	it	was	not	confirmedwhether	these	people	actually	wished	to	return).	With	no	realistic	prospect	forthese	refugees	to	go	home,	many	pressing	questions	remain	unanswered	forBangladesh.	Will	the	Rohingya	continue	to	be	forced	to	remain	in	the	camps?	Willthe	government	need	to	accept	that	they	are	in	all	probability	in	the	country	tostay?	Who	will	pay	the	bill?	Should	the	Rohingya	now	be	dispersed	around	thecountry	and	absorbed	into	Bangladesh’s	own	population	of	163	million	people?Bangladesh	Prime	Minister	Sheikh	Hasina’s	spectacular	act	of	generosity	to	the	Rohingya	brings	high	risks	for	asmall	South	Asian	country	that	has	a	fragile	economy,	a	brittle	political	system,	one	of	the	highest	populationdensities	in	the	world,	and	remains	massively	vulnerable	to	the	damaging	effects	of	global	climate	change.South Asia @ LSE: The view from Cox’s Bazar: assessing the impact of the Rohingya crisis on Bangladesh Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-04-11Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2018/04/11/the-view-from-coxs-bazar-assessing-the-impact-of-the-rohingya-crisis-on-bangladesh/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	the	South	Asia	@	LSE	blog,	nor	of	the	LondonSchool	of	Economics.	Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	posting.About	the	AuthorDavid	Lewis	recently	visited	Cox’s	Bazar.	He	is	professor	of	Social	Policy	and	Development	at	theLondon	School	of	Economics	and	a	member	of	the	faculty	advisory	group	of	the	LSE	South	AsiaCentre.	David	is	also	regular	contributor	to	the	South	Asia	@	LSE	blog.	View	more	of	his	posts	here.South Asia @ LSE: The view from Cox’s Bazar: assessing the impact of the Rohingya crisis on Bangladesh Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-04-11Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2018/04/11/the-view-from-coxs-bazar-assessing-the-impact-of-the-rohingya-crisis-on-bangladesh/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/

The view from Cox's Bazar: assessing the impact of the Rohingya crisis on Bangladesh

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The view from Cox's Bazar: assessing the impact of the Rohingya crisis on Bangladesh

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