Despite currently being banned from holding office, Silvio Berlusconi is well placed to have a key role in the Italian general election in March. Fabio Bordignon outlines the factors behind his latest comeback, and how his Forza Italia party could play a central part in the formation of the next Italian government

Bordignon, Fabio

LSE Research Online

Silvio	is	back:	Understanding	Berlusconi’s	latestrevival	ahead	of	the	Italian	general	electionDespite	currently	being	banned	from	holding	office,	Silvio	Berlusconi	is	well	placed	to	have	a	key	role	inthe	Italian	general	election	in	March.	Fabio	Bordignon	outlines	the	factors	behind	his	latest	comeback,and	how	his	Forza	Italia	party	could	play	a	central	part	in	the	formation	of	the	next	Italian	government.In	the	past	when	we	Italian	scholars	of	political	science	met	our	colleagues	at	international	conferences,it	was	always	the	same	question:	why	Berlusconi?	How	could	a	media	tycoon,	facing	multiple-trials	andallegations,	an	unlikely	politician	later	known	for	his	‘bunga	bunga’	parties,	have	become	the	leading	figure	in	one	ofthe	largest	western	democracies?	The	astonishment	of	the	international	observer	was	particularly	acute	in	2011,when	Berlusconi,	hit	by	personal	scandals	and	by	the	Eurozone	debt	crisis,	resigned	as	prime	minister.Now	the	world	has	changed,	and	it’s	full	of	Berlusconi-style	politicians.	But	at	a	time	when	political	leaders	seem	tofade	as	fast	as	they	rise,	Berlusconi	is	still	there.	The	‘Eternal	Leader’	has	survived	the	collapse	of	his	lastgovernment,	a	ban	from	the	Italian	Parliament,	and	a	seemingly	irreversible	electoral	(and	personal)	decline.	Andnow	the	81-year-old	leader	is	ready	for	a	new	comeback.	He	cannot	be	a	candidate,	but	he	still	leads	(owns)	hispersonal	party,	Forza	Italia.	And	he	could	win	with	his	centre-right	coalition	at	the	Italian	general	election	in	March.Why	Berlusconi?There	are	at	least	five	different,	but	related	explanations	for	Berlusconi’s	return,	which	at	the	same	time	show	theextent	(and	limits)	of	what	he	can	hope	to	achieve	this	time	around.	First,	there	are	the	failures	of	the	governingcoalition	led	by	the	centre-left	Democratic	Party	(PD).	This	began	as	a	grand	coalition,	but	it	progressively	shrankafter	Berlusconi’s	party	left	(in	2013)	and	then	broke	his	pact	with	the	PD	prime	minister	Matteo	Renzi	in	2015.	Onceconsidered	a	young,	left-wing	Berlusconi,	Renzi	lost	his	gamble	on	the	constitutional	referendum	held	in	2016,suffered	an	internal	split	involving	the	PD’s	left	wing,	and	the	party	now	holds	a	weak	position	in	the	polls	(below	thedisappointing	25%	obtained	by	the	PD	in	2013).Second,	the	PD	has	(incredibly)	backed	(together	with	Forza	Italia	and	Lega)	a	mixed	electoral	law,	in	which	onethird	(36%)	of	the	seats	are	assigned	in	single-member	plurality	districts	(and	the	remaining	part	with	proportionalrepresentation).	This	electoral	system	clearly	favoured	the	re-unification	of	a	strongly	divided	centre-right:Berlusconi’s	Forza	Italia	has	been	able	to	reach	an	agreement	with	the	radical-right	populist	Lega	led	by	MatteoSalvini,	as	well	as	with	Giorgia	Meloni’s	Brothers	of	Italy,	and	other	minor	parties.	On	the	other	side	of	the	politicalspectrum,	the	PD	has	a	significantly	lower	coalition	potential.	In	such	a	situation,	the	“psychological	effect”	connectedto	the	expectations	of	a	centre-right	success	could	be	even	more	important	than	the	“technical	effect”	induced	by	theelectoral	law.	And	Berlusconi	is	a	master	at	pulling	political	levers	of	this	kind.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Silvio is back: Understanding Berlusconi’s latest revival ahead of the Italian general election Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-01-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/01/22/silvio-is-back-understanding-berlusconis-latest-revival-ahead-of-the-italian-general-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Credit:	European	People’s	Party	(CC	BY	2.0)Third,	Italian	politics	is	no	longer	a	centre-right	vs	centre-left	game.	The	rise	of	the	Five	Star	Movement	(M5S)	hasbrought	the	country	into	a	tri-polar	era,	in	which	both	Berlusconi	and	Renzi	have	chosen	Luigi	Di	Maio,	the	Five	StarMovement’s	candidate	for	prime	minister,	as	their	(main)	competitor.	Both	leaders	aim	to	present	themselves	as	themoderate	barrier	against	the	populist	wave.	Even	Bill	Emmott,	former	editor	of	The	Economist,	who	in	2001described	Berlusconi	as	being	‘unfit’	to	lead	Italy,	now	thinks	he	could	save	a	country	confronted	with	the	(bigger)threat	represented	by	the	M5S,	which	leads	the	polls	with	close	to	30%	of	support.	Berlusconi	has	been	very	activerecently	in	trying	to	strengthen	Forza	Italia’s	position	inside	the	European	People’s	Party,	and	some	say	thePresident	of	the	European	Parliament	(and	member	of	Forza	Italia),	Antonio	Tajani,	could	be	one	of	Berlusconi’scandidates	for	the	Italian	premiership.Fourth,	Berlusconi’s	current	role	highlights	several	contradictions	given	he	has	traditionally	been	considered	aprominent	populist	figure	in	his	own	right.	Moreover,	his	main	ally,	Matteo	Salvini,	is	a	clear	expression	of	theEuropean	populist	radical	right.	Salvini	has	transformed	a	once	localist	(and	even	secessionist)	party	into	anationalist,	Eurosceptic,	and	anti-immigration	political	force.	The	League	has	grown	in	the	polls	and	even	assumed,during	this	legislature,	the	position	of	leading	centre-right	party.	No	one	has	so	openly	challenged	Berlusconi’sleadership	over	the	centre-right	in	the	same	way	as	Salvini	has	managed	to	do:	even	the	new	political	symbol	of	theLeague	states	he’s	running	for	the	premiership.The	early	stages	of	the	electoral	campaign	have	shown	continuous	clashes	between	(the	moderate)	Berlusconi	and(the	radical)	Salvini.	This	is	part	of	an	old	role-playing	between	Forza	Italia	and	the	(once	Northern)	League:	and	ithas	often	worked	in	the	past,	at	least	in	terms	of	their	ability	to	attract	support.	But	pundits	stress	the	two	centre-righttraditional	partners	have	never	been	so	divided	on	central	issues,	and	wonder	if	they	will	eventually	be	able	to	governtogether.	After	the	(partial	and	pragmatic)	reconciliation	between	Berlusconi	and	Salvini,	Forza	Italia	is	faring	better	inthe	polls	(with	about	15-17%	of	support)	and	the	party	is	again	slightly	ahead	of	the	League	(which	holds	around	13-14%):	the	real	balance	within	the	centre-right	after	the	next	election	will	be	crucial	to	what	happens	next.Finally,	Berlusconi	and	Salvini	are	not	necessarily	destined	to	govern	together.	Actually,	with	the	new	electoral	law,	acoalition	or	a	party	needs	to	win	at	least	40%	of	the	proportional	seats	and	70%	of	the	single-member	plurality	seatsto	reach	a	majority	in	Parliament.	Hence,	it’s	highly	likely	that	the	2018	election	(just	like	the	2013	election)	will	notproduce	a	clear	winner.	Even	in	this	case,	the	strength	of	Berlusconi	is	that	he	has	a	plan	B:	forming	a	new	grandcoalition	government	with	the	PD.	Indeed,	many	suspect	that	may	have	been	his	intention	all	along.	Both	Berlusconiand	Renzi	have	firmly	and	repeatedly	denied	this.	But	the	words	of	the	electoral	campaign	are	often	written	in	thesand	in	Italy,	while	the	necessity	of	a	convergence	between	left	and	right	appears	to	be	an	emerging	trend	in	Europe.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Silvio is back: Understanding Berlusconi’s latest revival ahead of the Italian general election Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-01-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/01/22/silvio-is-back-understanding-berlusconis-latest-revival-ahead-of-the-italian-general-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/These	five	points	explain	why	Berlusconi	is	once	again	so	central	to	Italian	politics.	His	party	model	does	notenvisage	succession.	The	same	holds	for	his	idea	of	the	centre-right:	a	political	arena	which	seems	doomed	to	be(eternally)	stuck	in	Berlusconism.	This	time	round	he	cannot	be	a	candidate,	due	to	his	ban	from	Parliament	(even	ifhe	has	appealed	to	the	European	Court	of	Human	Rights).	However,	he	is	still	there,	just	like	in	1994:	with	hisoptimism	and	his	tax-cuts,	his	amazing	promises	and	his	justice	problems.	The	leader	who	once	defined	himself	asbeing	“anointed	by	God”	seems	destined	to	revive	and	manifest	himself	always	in	the	same	person	for	all	eternity.And	Berlusconi	could	yet	end	up	as	kingmaker	following	the	next	election.	As	Woody	Allen	once	said:	“Eternity	is	avery	long	time.	Especially	towards	the	end”.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy,	norof	the	London	School	of	Economics._________________________________About	the	authorFabio	Bordignon	‒	University	of	Urbino	Carlo	BoFabio	Bordignon	teaches	Political	Science	at	the	University	of	Urbino	Carlo	Bo.	He	tweets	@fabordLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Silvio is back: Understanding Berlusconi’s latest revival ahead of the Italian general election Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-01-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/01/22/silvio-is-back-understanding-berlusconis-latest-revival-ahead-of-the-italian-general-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Silvio is back: understanding Berlusconi's latest revival ahead of the Italian general election

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