Publicly condoning military action and using economic sanctions to provoke it will only exacerbate Venezuelan suffering and further damage the tattered reputation of the US on democracy and human-rights issues in the Western Hemisphere, writes Timothy M. Gill (University of North Carolina, Wilmington)

Gill, Timothy M.

LSE Research Online

Opposition	leader	María	Corina	Machado	meetsGeorge	W.	Bush	in	2005	(Eric	Draper,	publicdomain)US	encouragement	of	a	military	coup	in	Venezuela	isdangerous	for	both	countriesPublicly	condoning	military	action	and	using	economic	sanctions	to	provoke	it	will	only	exacerbateVenezuelan	suffering	and	further	damage	the	tattered	reputation	of	the	US	on	democracy	and	human-rights	issues	in	the	Western	Hemisphere,	writes	Timothy	M.	Gill	(University	of	North	Carolina,Wilmington).Since	the	election	of	former	Venezuelan	President	Hugo	Chávez	in	1998,	the	US	and	Venezuela	havebeen	at	odds.US	state	elites	repeatedly	condemned	Chávez	and	his	socialistpolicies,	met	with	opposition	leaders	in	Washington,	and	failed	torecognise	the	electoral	success	of	both	Chávez	and	his	successorthe	current	president	Nicolás	Maduro.Chávez,	meanwhile,	aligned	himself	with	several	US	foes	(suchas	Iran	and	Russia),	routinely	lambasted	US	imperialism,	expelledthe	US	ambassador,	and	ultimately	blamed	the	US	for	the	2002coup	d’état	which	temporarily	removed	him	from	power.The	Trump	administration’s	approach	on	Venezuelaand	Latin	AmericaLike	Iran	and	North	Korea,	Venezuela	has	remained	a	top	foreign-policy	priority	for	the	new	Trump	administration.	While	certainelements	within	it	have	pushed	for	a	harsh	response	to	PresidentMaduro,	other	individuals	–	recently	retired	Under	Secretary	TomShannon,	for	example	–	have	discouraged	the	application	of	moredramatic	measures	like	a	ban	on	oil	imports	from	Venezuela,which	the	administration	has	been	seriously	considering.While	US	administrations	from	Clinton	to	Trump	via	Bushand	Obama	have	made	no	secret	of	their	disdain	for	Venezuela’ssocialist	government,	only	the	Trump	government	has	publicly	signalled	its	support	for	a	military	coup	in	the	country.Speaking	at	the	University	of	Texas	before	his	recent	tour	of	Latin	America,	Secretary	of	State	Rex	Tillerson	statedplainly	that	he	believed	“there	will	be	a	change	[in	Venezuela],”	and	that	the	Venezuelan	military	would	ultimatelycarry	it	out.Tillerson	also	claimed	that:[in]	the	history	of	Venezuela,	and,	in	fact,	the	history	in	other	Latin	American	and	South	Americancountries,	oftentimes	it’s	the	military	that	handles	that.	When	things	are	so	bad	that	the	military	leadershiprealizes	they	just	can’t	serve	the	citizens	anymore,	they	will	manage	a	peaceful	transition.He	even	declared	the	Monroe	Doctrine,	which	established	US	imperial	domination	over	the	Western	Hemisphere,	“asuccess”	and	asserted	that	it	remains	“as	relevant	today	as	it	was	the	day	it	was	written.”	If	anyone	doubtedTillerson’s	familiarity	with	the	nature	of	that	document,	he	went	on	to	say	that	Latin	America	did	“not	need	any	newimperial	powers”	like	China	and	Russia	exerting	their	influence	in	the	region,	clearly	implying	that	Latin	America	isalready	currently	subject	to	the	imperial	power	of	the	US.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: US encouragement of a military coup in Venezuela is dangerous for both countries Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-02-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2018/02/22/us-encouragement-of-a-military-coup-in-venezuela-is-dangerous-for-both-countries/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Secretary	of	State	Tillerson	(US	EmbassyLondon,	CC	BY-ND	2.0)Indeed,	throughout	the	twentieth	century,	the	US	activelysupported	military	coups	all	across	Latin	America,	fromGuatemala	and	Nicaragua	in	Central	America	to	Argentina	andChile	in	the	Southern	Cone.	But	these	coups	led	to	nothingremotely	approaching	“peaceful	transition”.The	Guatemalan	military,	for	instance,	committed	what	manyconsider	genocide	against	local	indigenous	populations,	whereasthe	Chilean	regime	disappeared	tens	of	thousands	of	left-wingactivists.	These	governments	safeguarded	US	economic	andsecurity	interests,	but	only	by	terrorising	their	own	citizens.Much	depends	on	how	the	Venezuelan	military	views	President	Nicolás	Maduro	(Xavier	GranjaCedeño,	CC	BY-SA	2.0)The	threat	of	oil-related	sanctions	and	the	2018	electionsAs	well	as	voicing	support	for	a	military	coup,	Tillerson	also	indicated	that	the	Trump	administration	is	weighing	upthe	nuclear	option	of	banning	oil	imports	from	Venezuela.The	severely	debilitated	Venezuelan	economy	relies	almost	exclusively	on	oil	exports	for	foreign	exchange,	much	ofwhich	continues	to	come	from	sales	to	refineries	on	the	US	Gulf	Coast.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: US encouragement of a military coup in Venezuela is dangerous for both countries Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-02-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2018/02/22/us-encouragement-of-a-military-coup-in-venezuela-is-dangerous-for-both-countries/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Despite	Maduro’s	claims	that	Venezuela	would	survive	any	embargo,	in	reality	this	would	doubtless	provecatastrophic	for	the	Venezuelan	economy,	intensifying	the	already	significant	suffering	of	citizens	all	across	thecountry.	It	is	hard	to	envision	a	means	of	compensating	for	the	loss	of	this	foreign	exchange,	which	is	desperatelyneeded	to	service	foreign	debt	and	cover	the	imports	that	keep	a	minimum	of	goods	on	Venezuelan	shelves.In	response,	Maduro	would	also	amplify	his	anti-imperialist	rhetoric	and	shore	up	nationalist	sentiment.	Yet,	if	theTrump	administration	wants	to	scare	military	members	into	moving	against	the	government,	there	is	no	better	moveto	make.There	is	no	denying	that	Venezuela	faces	a	serious	political-economic	crisis	with	no	end	in	sight:Oil	production	and	prices,	which	together	provided	the	government	with	the	windfall	of	foreign	exchange	thatunderpinned	its	heavy	social	spending,	have	both	plummeted;hyperinflation	has	left	the	local	currency	virtually	worthless;homicide	rates	are	among	the	highest	in	the	hemisphere	–	if	not	the	world;President	Maduro	remains	deeply	unpopular	throughout	the	country.Though	Maduro	did	overcome	former	governor	Henrique	Capriles	in	a	2013	election	generally	considered	free	andfair,	he	has	since	sought	to	maintain	his	rule	through	a	host	of	authoritarian	manoeuvres:	sidelining	the	opposition-controlled	National	Assembly,	establishing	a	parallel	legislative	body,	and	jailing	or	disbarring	political	adversaries.Yet,	historically	the	opposition	hasn’t	played	by	the	rules	either.	In	2002,	some	opposition	members	supported	amilitary	coup	and	a	transitional	government	that	temporarily	displaced	Hugo	Chávez.	Opposition	groups	thenorchestrated	a	months-long	strike	that	paralysed	the	country	by	shutting	down	the	vital	oil	industry.	And	since	2014the	opposition	has	periodically	called	for	the	ouster	of	Maduro	through	nationwide	protests	that	have	resulted	in	thedeath	of	dozens	of	Venezuelans,	amongst	them	security	forces,	opposition	activists,	and	government	supportersalike.Elements	of	the	opposition	have	recently	sought	to	negotiate	with	the	Venezuelan	government	to	work	out	the	manymessy	details	surrounding	imminent	presidential	elections.	But	several	rounds	of	mediated	negotiations	in	theDominican	Republic	have	ended	in	a	standstill,	with	the	two	sides	unable	even	to	achieve	a	temporary	resolution	oftheir	many	differences.Nonetheless,	presidential	elections	are	now	slated	for	22	April	2018,	and	Maduro	is	undoubtedly	aware	of	hisown	unpopularity.	Should	the	government	tamper	with	election	results	in	an	attempt	to	prolong	its	rule	illegitimately,the	international	community	–	and	particularly	Venezuela’s	neighbours	–	would	be	right	to	condemn	these	acts.But	encouraging	a	military	coup	by	threatening	“to	make	the	economy	scream”	will	only	exacerbate	Venezuelansuffering	and	further	damage	the	tattered	reputation	of	the	US	when	it	comes	to	democracy	and	human	rights	in	theWestern	Hemisphere.Notes:•	The	views	expressed	here	are	of	the	authors	and	do	not	reflect	the	position	of	the	Centre	or	of	the	LSE•	Please	read	our	Comments	Policy	before	commentingTimothy	M.	Gill	–	University	of	North	Carolina,	WilmingtonDr	Timothy	M.	Gill	is	an	Assistant	Professor	of	Sociology	at	the	University	of	North	Carolina	atWilmington.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: US encouragement of a military coup in Venezuela is dangerous for both countries Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2018-02-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2018/02/22/us-encouragement-of-a-military-coup-in-venezuela-is-dangerous-for-both-countries/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/

US encouragement of a military coup in Venezuela is dangerous for both countries

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US encouragement of a military coup in Venezuela is dangerous for both countries

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