At last the Home Office has ‘good news’ to report on lower net migration figures. Don Flynn asks whether this is a measure of successful policies, or just a measure of how deep the economic mire we are all in

Flynn, Don

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LSE Research Online

blo gs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/po liticsandpolicy/archives/26504Pho to : mckib il lo  (Flickr — Cre ative  Co mmo ns NC/ND)Immigration statistics: Is the tanker turning around?At last the Home Office has ‘good news’ to report on lower net migration figures. DonFlynn asks whether this is a  measure of successful policies, or just a measure of howdeep the economic mire we are all in. With party conf erence season just around the corner it is not surprising that ministersin the Home Of f ice would want to big up the news of  adrop in net migration f igures during the year endingDecember 2011.The Home Of f ice claims that f igures f rom the Of f icef or National Statistics (ONS) published last weekshowing an estimated the drop in net migration216,000 f rom the previous year ’s 252,000 are theresult of  a“raf t of  recent ref orms to the immigrationsystem.”Maybe. But a big chunk of  this reduction– 11,000people – actually came f rom an increase in the numberof  people leaving the UK rather than numbersentering.  In 2010 an estimated 339,000 people lef t thecountry to live abroad; in 2011 this rose to 350,000.At the same time that more Brits are seeing the sluggishness of  the UK’s recovery f rom recession as areason to ‘get on their bikes’ it does seem to be the case that there is a drop in the numbers wanting towork and study in the country.Skilled migrantsWe’ve know f or a long time that the much-vaunted Points-Based System has been turned into somethingclose to a disaster zone as route f or skilled migrants coming to the UK, with employers recruit ing onlyaround 50% of  the allocation of  the 20,700 Tier Two work permits.There seems to have been a slight recovery here, with the ONS reporting a 4% increase in the number ofhighly skilled visas being issued. But the gap in terms of  what the skilled labour market needs and what itis getting is still very wide.The new ONS suggests that the struggle to attract ‘the brightest and the best’ to the UK workf orcemight be continuing, with a 7% drop in the number of  work-related visas issues in the 12 months up toJune 2012.This snubbing of  employment opportunit ies in the UK is also likely to be extending to groups of  non-Brits who don’t require work permits – namely EU nationals. Figures f or the issue of  new NationalInsurance numbers to people f rom abroad in the 12 months up to March 2012 are reported to have f allenby a staggering 15%.Students, family visas and moreThe growth in the lucrative business of  providing education services to f oreigners seems to have beenf irmly arrested by Home Of f ice policies, with 30% less visas being awarded to international students inthe year ending June 2012.Family visas are also down by 10% in the year to June 2012, ref lecting a longer term downward trend butalso the ef f ect of  tougher rules on language now required of  spouses and partners, which are likely tobe amplif ied by the recent adoption of  a minimum earnings threshold of  £18,600 f or people wanting tosponsor their loved ones.The immigration minister, Damian Green, appeared on the BBC Radio ‘Today’ programme this morningclaiming that the statistics showed that the Home Of f ice was f inally ‘turning round the tanker ’ ofincreasing immigration numbers and bring things back in the direction of  the promises made by thecoalit ion back in 2010, of  net migration in the ‘tens, rather than hundreds of  thousands.’Hold the celebrationsThese are all f igures that will be picked over in great detail in the coming weeks and months to determinetheir signif icance, but even at this early stage it appears to be the case that the government is claimingits greatest successes in precisely the areas where we would most want it to be cautious in driving downf igures. Lower labour migration can be read as due to a growth in the unattractiveness of  employmentopportunit ies that exist in the UK, which would be consistent with the news that more Brits are leavingthe country as well as immigrants f ailing to arrive.The crowing about reduced student numbers is irrational at just about every level, given that it is likely tojeopardise earnings of  £2 – 3 billion a year to the UK economy. The news last week that the existence ofone London university has been threatened by the loss of  its trusted sponsor status is likely to increasethe sense which already exists in international student networks that the UK represents a high risk f oranyone planning to invest anything f rom £13, 000 to £20,000 a year in a university level education.In the short- term the immigration minister will probably f eel that he has good news to report to theConservative Party conf erence when it meets in Birmingham in early October. The dominant anti-immigration mood that exists in the party will doubtless applaud the news that the tanker might beshowing signs of  turning around. But the rest of  us will be wondering if  the only ef f ect is to put us all oncourse f or hitt ing the rocks.This art icle f irst appeared on the Migrants’ Rights Network blog.Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the British Politics and Policy blog, norof the London School of Economics. Please read our comments policy before posting.About the authorDon Flynn is the MRN Director, leads the organisation’s strategic development and coordinates MRN’spolicy and project work.You may also be interested in the following posts (automatically generated):1. A memorable Olympic Games has given us the opportunity to ref lect on London as a city ofimmigration (16.4)2. Immigration and identity: An open letter to Labour (15.7)3. Polit icians who genuinely seek to build trust between communities and in the polit ical system willget nowhere by casting immigration as a threat (15.2)4. Capping immigration – the Tories win out. But will economic considerations sof ten the policy f orbusiness and universit ies? (15.1)

Immigration statistics: is the tanker turning around?

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