After yesterday’s long awaited speech by David Cameron on the future of the UK in Europe, Simon Usherwood offers an analysis of its implications. He suggests that the Prime Minister’s speech will intensify, rather than placate, demands from the right-flank of the party

Usherwood, Simon

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LSE Research Online

blo gs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/po liticsandpolicy/archives/30118As much as Cameron has been pushed by his backbencherson Europe, his instincts as a politician have prevailedAfter yesterday’s long awaited speech by David Cameron on the future of the UK in Europe,Simon Usherwood offers an analysis of its implications. He suggests that the PrimeMinister ’s speech will intensify, rather than placate, demands from the right-flank of the party.For months, academics, polit icians and the blogosphere have discussed both the contentand the timing of  David Cameron’s intervention on Europe. For a speech with so muchhype and trailing, this was always going to be a disappointment and in that respect it didnot f ail. Even my own delight that an ‘ever closer union’ was discussed is scant consolation. The textitself  divides into an analysis of  the current situation, some principles f or action and implications f or theUK. Of  these, the f irst two represent f airly mainstream thinking across national chancelleries, even ifthey might not care to admit it. It is the third section that is distinctively Brit ish.As much as Cameron has been pushed by his backbenchers, who have been the key drivers of  EU policyin this Parliament, his more prof ound instincts as a polit ician have prevailed. This means keeping optionsopen and working with what is possible. Thus the language throughout the speech is not def init ive, oreven particularly limiting. Let’s unpack that f or a moment.Current government policy (and law) is that new treaties require a ref erendum. Thus, all that has changedis that Cameron will push f or a new treaty and treat the ref erendum as in/out. But it also requires that hewins the next election, which won’t be f ought on the EU issue; as William Hague showed in 2001,wrapping oneself  in the f lag is all well and good, but it ’s a sure-f ire vote winner. It also requires Cameronto secure a majority of  member states to open an intergovernmental conf erence, no small f eat in itself ,especially when even the musings of  Angela Merkel on ref orms to eurozone institutions have beengreeted with groans. Recall that the Constitutional Treaty/Lisbon Treaty process took almost a decade.Taken together, that’s a very incremental step – in keeping with his previous changes in policy – and a bigset of  hurdles to be overcome.As such, it is not going to satisf y most people, since it looks a bit too much like what it is: a f udge andcan-kicking. For sceptics, there will be a natural desire to see this as an opening of f er, an admission byCameron that he can be moved (if  slowly). But also f or pro-EU elements, the surprisingly posit ive f ramingof  EU membership might encourage them to become more vocal and to f uel the debate, sensing (or atleast hoping) that they can turn the tide, much as happened in 1975.Both these views are optimistic, at best, and delusional, at worse. The entire speech does serve tohighlight that the Union is just that, a Union, and that such discussions need to involve others. Forinstance, what happens if  the price of  securing Cameron’s concessions is the break-up of  the internalmarket? What happens if  the UK votes yes in a ref erendum, but another country votes no? Neither ofthese is impossible – indeed, are quite likely – but to pretend that they don’t af f ect the UK is unhelpf ul.This should serve to underline that membership is not just about your own country, but about building aUnion that serves everyone, which in turn requires some give-and-take.In an ideal world, today’s speech would have closed down discussion, by producing a policy or statementof  intent that would have given enough people something to take home. Given that this would never havebeen possible, then it had to be about a f orm of  words that gave balm to the many: read the f irst two-thirds and it could have been a f airly bland contribution f rom a continental f oreign minister. But it is thejarring disconnect of  the of f er to renegotiate that sticks out, the ‘red-meat’. Unf ortunately, f or Cameron,f or too many people, that red meat will turn out to be horse, not beef . With a Labour party that isstepping back f rom matching his of f er, he will f ind that the pressure to ‘close down UKIP’ and to satisf yhis backbenchers will only continue. Expect more speeches.Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the British Politics and Policy blog, norof the London School of Economics. Please read our comments policy before posting.About the authorDr Simon Usherwood is Senior Lecturer in Politics and Deputy Head of the School of Politics, University ofSurrey. After study at the College of Europe and the LSE’s European Institute, his work has focused oneuroscepticism, both in the UK and more widely across the EU. He is coordinator of the UACESCollaborative research Network on Euroscepticism (www.uaces.org/euroscepticism) and co-author of TheEuropean Union: A Very Short Introduction (OUP).You may also be interested in the following posts (automatically generated):1. Like John Major bef ore him, David Cameron has pragmatically managed his party’s dissensionsover Europe without addressing their f undamental sources (28.9)2. Cameron’s self - imposed isolation is of  lit t le surprise given the history of  the UK’s troubledrelationship with Europe. (23.7)3. Recent events in Europe and the Middle East have challenged the coalit ion government to revisitits engagement with Europe. (21.6)4. The EU Ref erendum rebellion has lef t David Cameron with litt le room to manoeuvre and is pickingapart his liberal conservative project (16.9)

As much as Cameron has been pushed by his backbenchers on Europe, his instincts as a politician have prevailed

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