The rise of Beppe Grillo and the political resilience of Silvio Berlusconi were two of the main stories to emerge from last week’s Italian election. As Duncan McDonnell and Giuliano Bobba argue, however, the Grillo and Berlusconi headlines should not disguise the stark position of the Italian centre-left. The Partito Democratico has now lost over three million voters in five years

Bobba, Giuliano

McDonnell, Duncan

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blo gs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/03/06/italy-elections-analysis-bersani-centre-left/Italy has passed a no-confidence verdict in the centre-leftby Blog AdminThe rise of Beppe Grillo and the political resilience of Silvio Berlusconi were two of the mainstories to emerge from last week’s Italian election. As Duncan McDonnell and GiulianoBobba argue, however, the Grillo and Berlusconi headlines should not disguise the starkposition of the Italian centre-left. The Partito Democratico has now lost over three millionvoters in five years. Devon Loch in 1956, Greg Norman over several decades, AC Milan in 2005 and PierluigiBersani in 2013. Spot the connection. Although we wrote here a f ew weeks ago that thePartito Democratico (PD – Democratic Party) was stalling in the election campaign, we didn’tthink we’d f ind ourselves including Bersani in a list of  f amous chokers – those who havethrown away leads which looked unassailable. Nor did any of  Italy’s pollsters whowere predicting a gap of  around f ive points between Bersani’s and Silvio Berlusconi’scoalit ions. This was less than the 10-15 points which had separated them in previousmonths, but it was still considered enough to ensure that, whether alone or in a post-election coalit ion with Mario Monti’s centrist group, the PD-SEL alliance would be taking itsplace in government and Bersani would be prime minister.Whether that will happen is of  course now very much in the balance. Rather than speculating about whatthe f uture holds, however, here we want to ref lect on what actually happened in the election – somethingwhich much of  the media coverage, with its f ocus on Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo’s Movimento Cinque Stelle(M5S – Five-Star Movement), has not done particularly well. As we see it, there are f our main points ofinterest regarding the centre- lef t:1) In contrast to what we had thought f or at least the past two years, the PD is not Italy’s undisputedleading party. The centre- lef t coalit ion with 29.5% f inished 0.3 percentage points ahead of  the centre-rightin the Chamber of  Deputies vote, thus claiming the majority seat bonus (see f igure 1). However, as we cansee f rom f igure 2, the PD was surpassed as the top individual party by the M5S.Figure 1: Party Seats in the Chamber of DeputiesNote: All data is based on that provided bythe Ministero dell’Interno. It does not include the‘Italians abroad’ and Valle D’Aosta constituencies.Figure 2: Party vote shares in the Chamber of DeputieselectionNote: As above.In the Senate (f or which voters must be 25 or over), the PD was the top party and its coalit ion placed f irst.However, because of  Italy’s bizarre 2005 electoral law which awards the seat bonus in the Senate accordingto how coalit ions f are in individual regions rather than nationally (as is the case f or the Chamber), thecentre- lef t f ailed to secure a majority and Monti’s coalit ion did so poorly that an alliance with it would stillnot be enough to f orm a viable government.Figure 3: Party seats in the SenateNote: As above2) In terms of  both vote share and the actual number ofpeople who voted f or it, the PD perf ormed worse than inthe last two general elections. As we can see f rom Figures 4and 5 below, the decline on its 2008 result – especially inabsolute numbers – is very signif icant. The PD has lostover three million voters in f ive years.Figure 4: PD votes (absolute numbers) in the 2006,2008 and 2013 general electionsNote: For 2006, we have calculated the PD’s voteas that  of  the Ulivo. Figures relate only to theChamber of  Deputies. Data does not include the‘Italians abroad’ and Valle D’Aosta constituencies.Figure 5: PD vote share in 2006, 2008 and 2013general electionsNote: As above3) It is misleading to f rame the result as somehow aBerlusconi victory over the centre- lef t. There hasbeen much written to this ef f ect in the media. A NewYork Times editorial even asserted that ‘Berlusconi’sslate won the largest number of  Senate seats’ – whichis just plain wrong. Those claiming a Berlusconi‘success’ should also consider that his PDL lost oversix million voters and circa 16 percentage pointscompared to its 2008 result. And that the centre- lef tand the PD f inished ahead of  the centre-right and thePDL respectively in both the Chamber of  Deputies andSenate elections.4) The PD, as we have seen above, lost in theChamber election to the M5S which enjoyed the mostsuccessf ul debut general election in recent decades inWestern Europe. In terms of  who voted f or the M5S,there are two elements of  concern f or the PD. Firstly,according to an Istituto Cattaneo study in variouscit ies, a signif icant share of  M5S voters in 2013 hadvoted f or the PD in 2008 (with 58% in Florence the topf igure). Second, the M5S is clearly more attractive toyounger voters than the PD. We can see this if  we look at the dif f erences in the votes f or the two partiesin the Chamber of  Deputies (f or which voters must 18 or over) and the Senate (f or which voters must be 25or over). While of  course it is possible that some over-25s voted dif f erently in the Chamber election thanthey did in the Senate one, the gap is such that it is logical to assume that the M5S did much better thanthe PD among 18-24 year olds.Figure 6: PD and M5S votes in the 2013 general electionNote: all data is based on that  provided by the Ministero dell’Interno. It  does not includethe ‘Italians abroad’ and Valle D’Aosta constituencies.Finally, three other brief  general ref lections: First, although it has anomalous elements, what seems to havepassed commentators by is the f act that, in one sense, this election is entirely in line with those elsewhere:the parties which had supported Monti’s government – the PD, PDL and UDC – all lost votes compared to2008. We have seen this happen to governing parties in almost all general elections in Western Europeduring the crisis.Second, rather than labelling the M5S result as a ‘protest vote’, the centre- lef t would do well to rememberthat many of  the movement’s themes (anti-corruption laws, polit ical system ref orm, the environment,universal unemployment benef it, local ref erendums on large public works) are dear to their own supporters(and potential supporters) too.Last, but not least, amid all the conf usion of  the past week, we have been provided with one salutaryreminder: Italian democracy’s f ate is not solely in the hand of  the markets, the European Union or editorialwriters of  international newspapers. Af ter the suspension of  party government in Italy f or over a year, thecit izens have f inally spoken. What they have said obviously doesn’t please The Economist or Germany’sSocial Democrat leader Peer Steinbrueck, but the Italian centre- lef t would do well now to listen to thoseactually in Italy. They might just learn something that would help them avoid choking next t ime.This is a contribution to Policy Network’s work on Liberal democracy under stress.Please read our comments policy before commenting.Note:  This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics andPolicy, nor of the London School of Economics.Shortened URL for this post:  http://bit .ly/WsK5vk _______________________________About the AuthorsDuncan McDonnell – European University Institute, FlorenceDuncan McDonnell is Marie Curie Fellow in the Department of  Polit ical and Social Sciencesat the European University Institute in Florence. He is the co-editor of  Twenty-First CenturyPopulism (Palgrave, 2008), the 2012 ‘Polit ica in Italia/Italian Polit ics’ yearbook and hasrecently published on the Lega Nord, Outsider Parties and Silvio Berlusconi’s personalparties. He is currently working with Daniele Albertazzi on a book entit led ‘Populists inPower’ which will be published by Routledge. He tweets at @duncanmcdonnell.Giuliano Bobba -  University of TurinGiuliano Bobba is a Lecturer at the Department of  Culture, Polit ics and Society in theUniversityof  Turin. His research interests include: polit ical communication and electioncampaigns; the evolution of  polit ical parties and leadership in Western democracies; theEuropean integration process and the development of  a European public sphere. He haspublished in particular on media and polit ics in Italy and France. He is the manager ofthe Polit ical Communication Observatory website in Turin.Related posts:1. Far f rom being a disaster, the results of  the Italian election could be a turning point f or Italy and theEurozone. (16.2)2. The Italian centre- lef t is stalling in the campaign, but (probably) not in the election (19.7)3. In the 2013 Italian elections the centre- lef t coalit ion is almost certain to win a majority in the Chamberof  Deputies, but is very unlikely to win a majority in the Senate. (16.3)

Italy has passed a no-confidence verdict in the centre-left

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