Most observers expect Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU to win Sunday's federal election in Germany, but the outcome of the vote will still have a major impact on the composition of the next government and the future direction of both Germany and the European Union. We asked four of our contributors for the key stories to watch as the results come in

Göpffarth, Julian

Henkel, Imke

Miethke, Lars

von Weitershausen, Inez

LSE Research Online

German	election	preview:	Four	things	to	look	out	foras	Germany	goes	to	the	pollsMost	observers	expect	Angela	Merkel’s	CDU/CSU	to	win	Sunday’s	federal	election	in	Germany,	but	the	outcomeof	the	vote	will	still	have	a	major	impact	on	the	composition	of	the	next	government	and	the	future	direction	ofboth	Germany	and	the	European	Union.	We	asked	four	of	our	contributors	for	the	key	stories	to	watch	as	theresults	come	in.Imke	Henkel:	While	other	states	slip	into	the	politics	of	emotion,	Germany	has	showcased	thepolitics	of	rationalityJulian	Göpffarth:	All	eyes	are	now	on	who	will	succeed	Merkel	as	CDU	leader	and	chancellorLars	Miethke:	The	foreign	ministry	remains	the	major	wild	cardInez	von	Weitershausen:	Forget	the	talk	of	another	boring	victory	for	Merkel	–	this	is	a	crucialelection	for	both	Germany	and	Europe	Imke	Henkel:	While	other	states	slip	into	the	politics	of	emotion,	Germany	has	showcasedthe	politics	of	rationalityWatching	the	German	election	campaign	has	been	fascinating.	Contrary	to	the	stereotypicalcomplaint	that	the	campaign	has	lacked	any	spark,	it	has	displayed	an	alternative	model	of	politics.What	we	have	witnessed	recently	in	Britain	and	in	the	United	States	(also	up	to	a	point	in	France)	isthe	politics	of	emotion.	In	Germany,	what	we	are	witnessing	is	the	politics	of	rationality.The	German	campaign	has	been	called	boring	because	it	lacks	the	escapist	entertainment	of	personal	rivalries(such	as	that	between	Cameron	and	Johnson),	the	nail-biting	drama	of	close	opinion	polls	(as	between	Clintonand	Trump,	Leave	and	Remain,	and	for	some	time	around	Marine	Le	Pen’s	Front	National),	or	outrageouslymendacious	claims	(as	in	both	the	British	and	the	US	campaigns	and	also	from	Le	Pen).	What	we	have	hadinstead	is	a	sober	TV	debate	between	the	chancellor	and	her	challenger	that	resembled	a	seminar	discussionbetween	two	academics	rather	than	a	clash	between	two	politicians.It	has	become	a	common	trope	in	German	political	commentary	to	call	Angela	Merkel	a	politician	withoutconvictions	or	any	visionary	powers.	But	pundits	overlook	that	while	Merkel’s	core	belief	may	be	technocratic,	italso	a	reassuring	one:	the	chancellor	aims	simply	for	the	German	people	to	live	comfortably	and	in	safety.	Assoporific	as	this	may	sound,	it	amounts	to	the	most	difficult	task	for	any	leader	of	any	state,	and	indeed	sums	upwhat	should	be	the	ultimate	aspiration	of	any	democracy.	The	American	president,	the	British	prime	minister,	andthe	last	French	president	all	struggled	significantly	to	achieve	it.	In	contrast,	80	per	cent	of	Germans	declarethemselves	content	with	their	situation.	Managerial	politics	has	succeeded.Yet	this	overwhelming	German	contentment	only	tells	one	part	of	the	story.	There	is	a	different	story	of	aGermany	that	has	one	of	the	largest	low-wage	sectors	in	Europe:	23	per	cent	earn	less	than	£9.30	an	hour.OECD	figures	show	that	inequality	in	Germany	has	increased	more	than	in	other	industrial	states.	The	country’sstrict,	austere	fiscal	policy	has	produced	a	budget	surplus,	but	also	underinvestment	in	areas	such	as	education	–and	it	has	harmed	its	European	neighbours.	Surprisingly,	Germans	do	not	appear	to	be	interested	in	theseissues.	Merkel’s	challenger,	Martin	Schulz,	got	nowhere	when	he	tried	to	address	them.Germany	stands	on	the	brink.	A	rich,	broadly	well-managed,	increasingly	powerful	country,	it	demonstrates	thatrational	politics	can	contain	(right-wing)	populism.	But	it	still	will	need	to	find	a	way	to	address	its	contradictions.The	truly	riveting	spectacle	will	commence	after	24	September:	the	negotiations	to	form	a	new	coalition	will	beobliged	to	tackle	what	has	so	far	been	kept	quiet	during	the	campaign.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: German election preview: Four things to look out for as Germany goes to the polls Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-09-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/22/german-election-preview-four-things-to-look-out-for-as-germany-goes-to-the-polls/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Imke	Henkel	–	University	of	LincolnImke	Henkel	is	a	Senior	Lecturer	in	Journalism	at	the	University	of	Lincoln.	She	also	writes	about	British	politicsfor	Zeit	Online.	Between	2004	and	2014	she	was	the	London	correspondent	for	the	German	newsmagazine	Focus.	Before	that	she	covered	the	British	economy	and	British	businesses	for	Süddeutsche	Zeitung.	___________________________________________Julian	Göpffarth:	All	eyes	are	now	on	who	will	succeed	Merkel	as	CDU	leader	and	chancellorIt	might	seem	strange	to	think	about	Merkel’s	successor	when	her	re-election	appears	imminent.However,	it	is	certain	that	Merkel	will	not	run	for	a	fifth	term.	Her	succession	is	thus	likely	to	be	acentral	question	of	the	next	term,	but	it	is	still	far	from	clear	who	in	the	CDU	could	follow	her	into	thechancellery.Two	names	have	been	frequently	mentioned:	Jens	Spahn,	and	Annegret	Kramp-Karrenbauer,	the	successfulminister	president	of	the	German	state	of	Saarland.	Spahn	is	omnipresent	in	the	media,	eloquent	and	young.	Atonly	37,	he	is	already	a	member	of	the	CDU’s	leadership	and	represents	a	new	conservatism	that	supports	samesex	marriage,	but	doesn’t	shy	away	from	populist	stances	against	Islam,	Brussels	and	cosmopolitan	hipsters.	Hewould	be	a	risky	choice	and	a	clear	break	from	Merkel’s	sober	and	calm	style	of	politics.	Yet,	he	has	the	supportof	influential	party	factions	and	Wolfgang	Schäuble,	the	current	finance	minister	and	political	heavyweight,	is	oneof	his	biggest	fans.	Not	everyone	has	taken	to	his	boastful	persona,	however,	and	he	has	proven	disloyal	toMerkel	on	several	occasions.Only	Kramp-Karrenbauer,	aka	AKK,	has	a	more	influential	fanbase	inside	the	CDU	than	Spahn.	Recurrentrumours	suggest	that	Merkel	is	planning	to	position	her	as	the	party	leader	in	2018	to	prepare	her	for	thechancellery.	She	is	said	to	be	close	to	Merkel	and	her	success	in	recent	state	elections	has	further	strengthenedher	position.	Contrary	to	Spahn,	AKK	would	stand	for	a	continuation	of	Merkel	–	liberal,	centrist	and	quiet,	thoughperhaps	too	silent	as	she	is	still	largely	unknown.	Many	Germans	cannot	even	remember,	let	alone	pronounceher	last	name.But	of	course,	there	are	other	possible	candidates.	Current	defence	minister	Ursula	von	der	Leyen	has	long	beenseen	as	‘the	crown	princess’,	while	interior	minister	Thomas	de	Maizière	has	been	dubbed	the	‘chancellor	inreserve’.	However,	both	either	have	little	party-support	and/or	have	had	recent	struggles	to	endure.	Youngercandidates	include	Julia	Klöckner,	Daniel	Günther	and	David	McAllister.	Even	if	Klöckner	lost	an	important	stateelection	last	year,	she	remains	one	of	the	CDU’s	key	young	talents	and	is	already	well-known.	Günther,	incontrast,	was	one	of	the	surprise	winners	of	this	year’s	state	elections,	but	is	still	largely	unknown.	McAllister,	onthe	other	hand,	is	a	gifted	politician,	but	lost	an	important	election	in	lower	Saxony	in	2013	and	has	been	largelyabsent	from	German	politics	since.One	surprise	in	this	year’s	general	election	campaign	has	been	the	comeback	of	former	defence	minister	Karl-Theodor	zu	Guttenberg.	Although	a	highly	popular	and	talented	individual,	he	was	forced	to	step	down	in	2011when	his	doctoral	thesis	was	proven	to	contain	plagiarism.	Even	if	he	is	now	a	successful	consultant	in	the	US,his	reappearance	on	the	political	scene	can	be	read	as	a	sign	of	a	possible	return	to	the	political	frontline.AKK	and	Spahn	might	appear	to	be	the	main	contenders	at	present,	but	the	ambitions	and	future	possibilities	ofall	of	the	politicians	listed	here	remain	unclear.	What	is	sure	is	that	most	are	likely	to	become	important	politicalplayers	in	the	CDU	following	the	election.	Even	if	they	fail	to	become	chancellor,	they	will	be	the	key	figures	towatch	in	the	coming	years.Julian	Göpffarth	–	LSEJulian	Göpffarth	is	a	PhD	candidate	at	the	London	School	of	Economics.	He	holds	a	degree	in	European	Studiesfrom	Sciences	Po	Paris	and	the	London	School	of	Economics	and	Political	Science.	Prior	to	his	PhD,	he	workedfor	the	European	Parliamentary	Research	Service.	His	research	interests	include	nationalist	ideologies,radicalisation,	European	politics	and	philosophy.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: German election preview: Four things to look out for as Germany goes to the polls Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-09-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/22/german-election-preview-four-things-to-look-out-for-as-germany-goes-to-the-polls/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/	___________________________________________Lars	Miethke:	The	foreign	ministry	remains	the	major	wild	cardAs	Germany	heads	to	the	polls	this	weekend,	nobody	expects	Angela	Merkel’s	CDU/CSU	to	loseout	against	her	challenger,	Martin	Schulz.	However,	the	make-up	of	the	next	German	government	isfar	from	a	done-deal.	Various	coalition	arrangements	are	being	debated	and	with	them	the	secondmost	sought-after	position	in	the	German	government,	that	of	foreign	minister.	Most	of	the	time,	thetitle	comes	with	that	of	vice-chancellor	and	is	taken	up	by	the	leader	of	the	junior	partner	in	thegoverning	coalition.Taking	the	latest	polling	data	into	account,	four	different	candidates	could	potentially	become	Germany’s	nextforeign	minister.	Should	the	CDU/CSU	and	the	SPD	continue	their	coalition	government	(they	will	almost	certainlyreceive	the	required	votes	to	do	so)	the	SPD	would	put	forward	one	of	two	possible	candidates.	If	Schulzmanages	to	improve	upon	the	SPD’s	previous	election	results	he	will	have	strengthened	his	position	within	theparty	and	would	likely	take	over	the	role	of	vice-chancellor	and	foreign	minister	from	the	incumbent,	SigmarGabriel.	Should	the	SPD	lose	support	though,	or	only	marginally	improve	upon	the	last	election’s	results,	Schulzwill	likely	take	the	blame,	resign,	and	leave	Gabriel	at	the	head	of	the	ministry	and	in	charge	of	coalitionnegotiations.Another	potential	candidate	is	Christian	Lindner,	the	head	of	the	German	liberal	party.	If	he,	together	with	theCDU/CSU,	attracts	enough	votes	to	join	a	government	(if	necessary,	maybe	with	the	help	of	the	Green	party),	hewould	likely	become	the	next	foreign	minister.	His	controversial	statement	earlier	this	summer	advocating	arenewal	of	the	European-Russian	relationship	despite	the	illegal	annexation	of	Crimea	is	indicative	of	what	wouldbe	a	pro-active	ministry	that	is	willing	to	challenge	the	next	Chancellor	on	foreign	policy.Less	likely,	and	a	true	wild	card	by	German	standards,	would	be	the	nomination	of	Sahra	Wagenknecht.Representing	the	far-left	party,	Die	Linke,	she	could	theoretically	become	foreign	minister	in	a	cabinet	led	bySchulz	together	with	the	Green	party,	a	potential	coalition	Schulz	has	so	far	declined	to	rule	out.	RenouncingGerman	NATO-membership	is	just	one	of	her	party’s	policy	suggestions	for	this	election,	but	one	that	is	highlyrepresentative	of	her	foreign	policy	agenda.	Ultimately,	Germany’s	next	foreign	minister	will	be	determined	by	theparty	Germans	trust	most	to	cooperate	with	and	challenge	the	future	chancellor	–	something	that	will	only	beknown	when	the	results	come	in.Lars	Miethke	–	LSELars	Miethke	is	a	PhD	candidate	at	the	London	School	of	Economics.	His	research	interests	include	Europeanforeign	and	defence	policies,	and	the	future	of	sovereignty.	___________________________________________Inez	von	Weitershausen:	Forget	the	talk	of	another	boring	victory	for	Merkel	–	this	is	acrucial	election	for	both	Germany	and	EuropeAs	the	programmes	of	the	mainstream	parties	show	strong	similarities	in	many	areas,	and	as	thelatest	polls	suggest	that	Chancellor	of	12-years,	Angela	Merkel,	might	lead	yet	another	Grandcoalition,	one	might	assume	that	not	much	is	at	stake	in	this	year’s	election.	Yet	this	conclusion	isnot	only	false,	but	potentially	dangerous	as	it	could	lead	to	a	low	turnout,	which	is	generally	to	theadvantage	of	parties	at	the	extremes	of	the	ideological	scale.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: German election preview: Four things to look out for as Germany goes to the polls Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-09-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/22/german-election-preview-four-things-to-look-out-for-as-germany-goes-to-the-polls/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/It	is,	therefore,	crucial	to	acknowledge	that	a	continuation	of	the	status	quo	as	well	as	the	formation	of	a	newcoalition,	would	have	major	implications	both	for	Germany	and	Europe.	For	instance,	a	left-leaning	government,including	another	Grand	Coalition,	may	show	a	higher	propensity	to	“pick	up	the	tab”	in	the	Eurozone,	but	is	alsomore	likely	to	avoid	the	structural	reforms	that	are	so	urgently	needed	to	ensure	the	longevity	of	the	Europeanintegration	project.Similarly,	if	they	were	to	be	returned	to	office,	the	ruling	parties	might	have	little	incentive	to	address	the	growingsocial	imbalance	which	has	become	a	key	issue	in	the	country.	A	failure	to	reform	crucial	areas	such	as	pensions,healthcare	or	education	will,	however,	in	the	medium	to	long-run	result	in	growing	voter	disenchantment	and	thefurther	rise	of	parties	on	the	extreme	left	and	right.Finally,	there	is	a	risk	that,	depending	on	the	outcome	of	these	elections,	Germany	may	appear	in	the	eyes	of	itspartners	as	an	overly	self-confident	and	ever-powerful	actor.	While	a	growing	role	in	the	world	may	provideGermany	with	the	ability	to	shape	events	in	line	with	its	preference	for	multilateralism	and	cooperation,	it	will	alsoexpose	Berlin	to	new	demands	and	potential	criticism.On	24	September,	the	German	electorate	will,	therefore,	engage	in	no	less	than	a	Richtungsentscheidung	(adecision	on	the	basic	direction	of	the	country).	Hopes	remain	that	this	insight	will	be	reflected	in	the	turnout,support	for	democratic	parties	and,	subsequently,	the	commitment	of	the	new	government	to	address	thecountry’s	most	pressing	issues.Inez	von	Weitershausen	–	Massachusetts	Institute	of	TechnologyInez	von	Weitershausen	is	a	Researcher	at	the	Massachusetts	Institute	of	Technology	(MIT).	She	was	formerly	ateacher	on	the	LSE100	course	and	completed	her	PhD	in	the	LSE’s	Department	of	International	Relations.	She	isalso	one	of	the	editors	of	The	Brexit	Reader	on	Security	&	Defence.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	and	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy,nor	of	the	London	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	Nibe181	(CC	BY-NC	2.0)_________________________________LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: German election preview: Four things to look out for as Germany goes to the polls Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-09-22Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/22/german-election-preview-four-things-to-look-out-for-as-germany-goes-to-the-polls/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

German election preview: four things to look out for as Germany goes to the polls

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

LSE Research Online