Although the Tories gained back votes from UKIP in 2017, their hard Brexit rhetoric also lost them votes to Labour. But if the party softens on Brexit to gain those back, they could once again bleed voters to a resurgent UKIP. Heinz Brandenburg and Anders Widfeldt explain the data behind this dilemma

Widfeldt, Anders

LSE Research Online

UKIP	giveth	and	UKIP	taketh	away:	why	Brexit	mayprove	an	electoral	dead	end	for	the	ToriesAlthough	the	Tories	gained	back	votes	from	UKIP	in	2017,	their	hard	Brexit	rhetoricalso	lost	them	votes	to	Labour.	But	if	the	party	softens	on	Brexit	to	gain	those	back,they	could	once	again	bleed	voters	to	a	resurgent	UKIP.	Heinz	Brandenburg	andAnders	Widfeldt	explain	the	data	behind	this	dilemma.If	everything	had	gone	to	plan,	the	main	story	of	the	2017	General	Election	wouldhave	been	how	the	Conservatives	increased	their	majority	in	the	House	of	Commons	by	taking	votes	from	UKIP.But	the	voters	had	other	ideas,	and	we	are	now	faced	with	the	second	hung	parliament	of	the	decade.UKIP	did	of	course	lose	lots	of	votes,	and	are	at	the	moment	leaderless.	Still,	there	are	two	key	questions	aboutthe	party,	which	have	been	somewhat	drowned	by	other	political	developments.	One	is	where	the	UKIP	voteswent,	now	that	the	Tories	saw	their	majority	reduced.	The	other	is	what	the	future	holds	for	UKIP,	after	losingmore	than	8	in	10	votes	compared	to	2015.In	and	of	itself	the	core	Conservative	election	strategy	–	to	target	UKIP	voters	with	their	hard	Brexit	rhetoric	–	wasa	resounding	success.	Ashcroft	polls	conducted	around	polling	day	suggest	that	57%	of	former	UKIP	votersswitched	to	the	Tories.	In	addition,	we	ran	a	simple	regression	analysis	relating	UKIP	losses	to	the	change	inConservative	vote	share	across	all	English	and	Welsh	constituencies	(in	constituencies	where	UKIP	did	not	standin	2017,	the	loss	was	measured	as	their	2015	share	of	the	vote	in	the	same	constituency).	We	found	that	forevery	percentage	point	that	UKIP	lost	in	a	constituency,	the	Conservatives	gained	0.95	of	a	percentage	point,	i.e.almost	all.The	problem	was	that	the	Tories	also	lost	votes	to	other	parties,	mostly	Labour.	On	average	over	6%	of	Toryvoters	in	each	constituency	went	elsewhere.	We	estimate	that	for	every	two	voters	they	gained	from	UKIP,	theConservatives	lost	one	of	their	own	to	Labour.	So,	if	the	attempt	to	woo	UKIP	voters	was	successful,	it	looks	like	ithad	unintended	side-effects.The	fact	that	so	many	UKIP	voters	did	go	to	the	Tories	was	not	as	such	unexpected,	with	the	governing	party’semphasis	on	a	“hard	Brexit”	before	and	during	the	campaign.	But	the	shift	from	UKIP	to	the	Tories	was	not	merelydriven	by	short-term	factors,	as	supported	by	research	we	conducted	about	UKIP’s	support	base	2010-2015.Analysing	respondents’	feelings	towards	the	British	parties,	we	found	that	UKIP’s	main	competitors	forsympathies	and	votes	were	the	Conservatives.	The	BNP	was	also	a	viable	alternative	for	many	UKIP	supporters,while	Labour	was	hardly	in	the	picture.	The	latter	may	be	surprising	given	that	roughly	1	in	5	newly	recruited	UKIPvoters	had	defected	from	Labour,	before	or	after	2010.	But	for	most	Labour	defectors,	a	return	to	Labour	hadbecome	inconceivable,	as	illustrated	in	Figure	1:British Politics and Policy at LSE: UKIP giveth and UKIP taketh away: why Brexit may prove an electoral dead end for the Tories Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ukip-and-why-brexit-may-prove-a-dead-end-for-the-tories/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Figure	1	reports	how	likely	defectors	from	Tories	and	Labour	to	UKIP	think	it	is	that	they	would	ever	vote	for	theirold	party	again.	(These	are	so-called	Propensity	to	Vote.	The	survey	question	is	“How	likely	is	it	that	you	wouldever	vote	for	each	of	the	following	parties?”.	Asking	this	question	about	their	former	party	to	respondents	who	hadmoved	from	Labour	or	Conservatives	to	UKIP,	we	get	a	measure	of	the	likelihood	of	a	return	to	the	erstwhilefavourite	party.)The	data	are	taken	from	the	British	Election	Study	Internet	Panel	study.	We	only	selected	those	who	voted	eitherLabour	or	Conservative	in	2005,	but	UKIP	in	2015.	The	solid	lines	report	their	answers	just	after	the	2015election,	in	which	they	voted	UKIP;	the	dashed	lines	are	from	December	2016,	i.e.	when	the	intentions	of	theConservative	government	to	favour	a	hard	Brexit	had	become	apparent.Figure	1	shows	that	ex-Tory	voters	could	easily	imagine	themselves	moving	back,	while	Labour	defectors	to	UKIPhave	closed	the	door	on	their	former	party.	The	trend	grows	stronger	the	further	away	we	move	from	the	2015election.	While	three-quarters	of	Labour	defectors	consider	it	unlikely	to	ever	move	back	(scoring	<5	on	the	10-point	scale),	almost	50%	exclude	the	possibility	altogether	(scoring	0).	Meanwhile,	three-quarters	of	Torydefectors	think	it	more	likely	than	not	to	move	back	(scoring	>5).	Most	notably,	these	Tory	defectors	consistentlysaw	a	return	as	a	distinct	possibility	–	there	is	virtually	no	difference	between	the	two	blue	lines.	Theirs	was	not	achange	in	party	allegiance,	but	more	of	a	strategic	vote.The	future	of	UKIP	is	thus	very	much	in	the	balance.	The	party’s	raison	d’être	has	hardly	disappeared.	The	Brexitprocess	is	in	progress,	but	is	not	certain	to	reach	a	conclusion	approved	by	UKIP	supporters.	If	they	regard	theeventual	Brexit	as	too	soft,	those	who	now	moved	back	from	UKIP	to	the	Conservatives	could	just	as	quicklyreturn.	The	softer	the	Brexit,	the	more	likely	a	UKIP	resurgence.But	that	is	not	the	only	possible	scenario.	UKIP’s	support	base	also	includes	many	who	have	moved	from	BNP(or	from	Labour	via	non-voting	and/or	BNP).	The	party	thus	has	two	main	choices.	One	is	to	aim	for	the	positionas	a	mainstream	guardian	of	Brexit,	reclaiming	mainly	Tory	voters	unhappy	with	the	route	Brexit	may	take.	Thealternative	is	to	consolidate	the	smaller	base	of	more	radical	supporters,	some	of	whom	have	in	the	pastsupported	BNP.British Politics and Policy at LSE: UKIP giveth and UKIP taketh away: why Brexit may prove an electoral dead end for the Tories Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ukip-and-why-brexit-may-prove-a-dead-end-for-the-tories/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/For	the	Tories,	there	may	be	problems	ahead.	Gaining	votes	from	UKIP	did	not	help	secure	an	outright	majoritybecause	it	meant	losing	votes	to	Labour.	These	voters	may	not	easily	come	back,	at	least	not	as	long	as	theTories	stick	to	the	hard	Brexit	agenda.	If,	on	the	other	hand,	the	government	party	softens	on	Brexit,	they	couldbleed	voters	again	to	UKIP.______About	the	AuthorsHeinz	Brandenburg	is	Senior	Lecturer	in	Politics	at	the	University	of	Strathclyde.		Anders	Widfeldt	is	Lecturer	in	Nordic	Politics	at	the	University	of	Aberdeen.			British Politics and Policy at LSE: UKIP giveth and UKIP taketh away: why Brexit may prove an electoral dead end for the Tories Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-07-04Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ukip-and-why-brexit-may-prove-a-dead-end-for-the-tories/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/

UKIP giveth and UKIP taketh away: why Brexit may prove an electoral dead end for the Tories

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