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Why the Republicans will retain the House in 2016...and 2018...and 2020

Abstract

At this stage of the 2016 election cycle, which party will control the White House and the US Senate come January 2017 seems to be very much up in the air. The US House of Representatives on the other hand, is almost certain to remain in the hands of the Republican Party, a situation which is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Anthony J. McGann , Charles Anthony Smith , Michael Latner and Alex Keena argue that the GOP’s continued control of the House is down to the gerrymandering of Congressional districts by Republican-controlled state legislatures. They write that in certain states like Pennsylvania, this gerrymandering leads to an asymmetry between the number of seats the Democrats gain and their vote share, reducing their share of US House seats

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