Opinion polls suggest six parties will enter the Bundestag in Germany's election on Sunday, two more than crossed the electoral threshold in the last elections in 2013. But what does this apparent fragmentation of the German party system mean for the diversity of candidates, particularly in terms of the fair representation of women and minority groups? Paul C. Bauer and Julia Schulte-Cloos present a detailed analysis of the numbers of women and foreign-born candidates on each party’s candidate list. They find that parties on the left/libertarian end of the scale are more inclusive of women, but that the left-wing Die Linke and right-wing AfD have the highest percentage of foreign-born candidates

Bauer, Paul C.

Schulte-Cloos, Julia

LSE Research Online

Measuring	the	diversity	of	each	party’s	candidatesin	the	German	electionOpinion	polls	suggest	six	parties	will	enter	the	Bundestag	in	Germany’s	election	onSunday,	two	more	than	crossed	the	electoral	threshold	in	the	last	elections	in	2013.	Butwhat	does	this	apparent	fragmentation	of	the	German	party	system	mean	for	thediversity	of	candidates,	particularly	in	terms	of	the	fair	representation	of	women	andminority	groups?	Paul	C.	Bauer	and	Julia	Schulte-Cloos	present	a	detailed	analysisof	the	numbers	of	women	and	foreign-born	candidates	on	each	party’s	candidate	list.They	find	that	parties	on	the	left/libertarian	end	of	the	scale	are	more	inclusive	of	women,	but	that	the	left-wingDie	Linke	and	right-wing	AfD	have	the	highest	percentage	of	foreign-born	candidates.Ahead	of	Germany’s	federal	election	on	Sunday,	opinion	polls	indicate	that	the	next	parliament	will	be	composedof	six	parties.	In	addition	to	the	Liberals	(FDP),	who	surprisingly	failed	to	surpass	the	five	percent	threshold	fouryears	ago,	the	future	parliament	is	likely	to	feature	a	populist	radical	right	party,	the	Alternative	für	Deutschland(AfD),	which	is	unprecedented	in	Germany’s	post-war	history.As	chances	are	that	six	parties	will	move	into	parliament,	the	pool	of	party	lists	and	candidates	has	substantiallygrown	compared	to	the	last	election.	The	total	number	of	candidates	has	grown	by	8.5	percent	as	compared	tothe	2013	election.	This	poses	the	question	whether	the	growth	in	numbers	is	accompanied	by	an	increase	indiversity.	Research	shows	that	the	diversity	of	candidates	is	important	in	1)	encouraging	political	participation	and2)	the	future	political	activism	of	minorities,	a	finding	which	is	equally	valid	for	female	candidates	as	well	ascandidates	from	ethnic	minorities.We	analyse	the	German	candidates	for	the	upcoming	election	by	considering	the	distribution	of	women	andcandidates	not	born	in	Germany	across	parties	and	regions.	We	rely	on	a	list	of	4,828	candidates	provided	by	thefederal	returning	officer	of	Germany.	Our	primary	focus	is	on	parties	that	have	a	high	probability	of	getting	into	theBundestag	as	predicted	by	zweitstimme.org.While	our	findings	confirm	expectations	regarding	the	gender	balance	across	parties,	namely	that	it	is	highestamong	left-libertarian	parties,	the	distribution	of	foreign-born	candidates	does	not	follow	this	pattern.	Instead,	theanti-immigration	party	AfD	has	the	second	highest	share	of	candidates	born	in	a	foreign	country,	after	Die	Linke.Figure	1:	Women	across	partiesLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 1 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Compiled	by	the	authors.Among	all	candidates	running	in	the	federal	election,	only	every	third	candidate	is	a	woman	(29%).	The	party	withthe	lowest	share	of	female	candidates	is	the	AfD	with	around	12%	(see	Figure	1).	The	AfD	is	also	the	only	partywhose	share	of	female	candidates	has	decreased	compared	to	2013	(see	Figure	2).	In	stark	contrast,	almostevery	second	Green	candidate	is	female	(ca.	47%).Figure	2:	Women	across	parties,	across	timeLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 2 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Compiled	by	the	authors.In	the	German	mixed	electoral	system,	voters	have	two	votes:	the	first	to	choose	among	direct	candidates	fromtheir	electoral	district,	the	second	to	choose	among	party	lists,	both	of	which	are	listed	on	the	state-specific	ballot.The	party	lists	mention	the	top	five	list	candidates.	As	most	voters	do	not	have	information	on	the	share	of	femalecandidates	among	parties,	the	first	five	candidates	on	party	lists	may	present	a	relevant	cue.	As	shown	in	Figure3,	among	the	top	five	positions	across	the	party	lists	of	the	six	biggest	parties	across	all	states	(N	=	477),	theshare	of	women	decreases	when	moving	from	left	to	right	along	the	political	left-right	spectrum.Figure	3:	Women	among	top	five	party	state-list	positionsLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 3 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Compiled	by	the	authors.Rather	than	just	focusing	on	the	top	five	positions	on	party	lists,	Figure	4	visualises	the	average	share	of	womenamong	all	top	five	party	list	candidates	and	all	direct	candidates	(N	=	1,851)	per	party	per	state.	In	other	words,we	measure	the	share	of	female	candidates	mentioned	on	ballots	per	state	per	party.	These	are	all	candidateswho	either	directly	run	for	office	in	one	of	the	299	German	electoral	districts	and/or	run	among	the	top	five	on	theparty	lists	within	the	states.Interestingly,	in	addition	to	the	strong	variation	across	parties,	we	also	find	strong	regional	variation	within	parties.The	share	of	women	among	candidates	on	voting	ballots	of	the	Green	party	ranges	from	below	20%	to	more	than50%.	The	CDU/CSU,	another	party	with	strong	regional	variation,	has	a	high	share	of	female	candidates	in	theformer	GDR	states	–	this	share	includes	the	candidacy	of	current	chancellor	Angela	Merkel.	In	SouthernGermany,	in	contrast,	the	share	drops	below	20%.Figure	4:	Women	across	parties,	across	states	(proportion,	click	to	enlarge)LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 4 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Compiled	by	the	authors.The	candidacies	of	ethnic	minorities	may	encourage	other	minority	members	to	cast	a	vote	on	Election	Day	orengage	in	politics	as	well.	While	it	is	challenging	to	collect	data	on	the	migrant	background	of	candidates	whoseparents	or	grandparents	have	migrated	to	Germany,	the	official	data	of	the	Federal	Election	Commissionerinclude	candidates’	places	of	birth.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 5 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/In	other	words,	as	a	rough	approximation	of	migration	background	we	consider	whether	candidates	were	born	ina	foreign	country	and	migrated	to	Germany.	By	automatically	geocoding	the	place	of	birth	of	all	4,828	candidates,we	obtain	a	variable	indicating	the	country	of	origin.	The	overwhelming	majority	of	candidates	running	for	office	inthe	2017	federal	election	were	born	in	Germany,	4,530	out	of	4,828	candidates.	As	shown	in	Figure	5,	the	largestgroups	of	foreign-born	candidates	are	from	Turkey,	Poland,	Austria,	Romania,	Russia,	France,	and	a	few	othercountries.Figure	5:	Countries	of	origin	across	all	foreign-born	candidatesNote:	Compiled	by	the	authors,	total	N	=	298.Figure	6	illustrates	that	the	highest	share	of	candidates	born	in	a	foreign	country	can	be	found	among	candidatesof	Die	Linke.	Surprisingly,	the	anti-immigration	party	AfD	features	the	second	greatest	share	of	candidates	notborn	in	Germany.Figure	6:	Foreign-born	candidates	by	partyLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 6 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Compiled	by	the	authors.Figure	7	provides	a	more	refined	view	and	illustrates	that	in	contrast	to	Die	Linke,	which	features	mostlycandidates	from	Turkey,	candidates	in	the	AfD	instead	originate	from	Central	and	Eastern	European	countries.The	AfD’s	foreign-born	candidates	stem	from	countries	like	Poland,	Romania	and	the	Czech	Republic.	Generally,however,	the	share	of	candidates	not	born	in	Germany	is	low	across	all	parties.Figure	7:	Countries	of	origin	across	partiesLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 7 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Compiled	by	the	authors.Commentators	expect	a	fragmentation	of	the	political	parties	represented	in	the	19th	German	Bundestag.	Thenumber	of	candidates	and	party	lists	running	on	Sunday	has	grown.	Focusing	on	two	key	aspects	ofrepresentation,	namely	gender	and	migration	background,	this	blog	post	highlights	the	variation	across	and	withinparties.Our	findings	confirm	expectations	of	a	greater	gender	balance	among	left-libertarian	parties,	which	may	stemfrom	the	fact	that	they	embrace	gender-equal	politics.	We	assume	that	this	gender-balance	is	sustained	by	a	self-reinforcing	“role-model	effect”	that	mobilises	future	political	activists.	In	terms	of	country	of	origin,	the	pattern	isless	systematic	across	parties.	While	our	analyses	do	confirm	an	intuition	of	greater	diversity	of	candidatesamong	Die	Linke	and	the	Greens,	the	anti-immigration	party	AfD	features	the	second	greatest	share	ofcandidates	that	were	not	born	in	Germany.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 8 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics._________________________________About	the	authorPaul	C.	Bauer	–	Mannheim	Centre	for	European	Social	ResearchPaul	C.	Bauer	is	a	research	fellow	at	the	Mannheim	Centre	for	European	Social	Research	(MZES).His	areas	of	research	include	political	sociology	and	research	methods.	He	tweets	@p_c_bauerJulia	Schulte-Cloos	–	European	University	InstituteJulia	Schulte-Cloos	is	a	PhD	candidate	with	a	specialisation	in	comparative	politics	atthe	European	University	Institute	(EUI),	Florence.	Her	research	interests	includeelectoral	behaviour,	party	politics,	and	quantitative	research	designs.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Measuring the diversity of each party’s candidates in the German election Page 9 of 9		Date originally posted: 2017-09-21Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/21/measuring-the-diversity-of-each-partys-candidates-in-the-german-election/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Measuring the diversity of each party's candidates in the German election

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