The last general election brought a number of new voters into the electorate, especially younger ones who having voted for the first time, are more likely to turn out in future contests. Anja Neundorf and Thomas J. Scotto argue that although Labour cannot take their support for granted, for many of them the Conservative option is permanently off the menu

Neundorf, Anja

Scotto, Thomas J.

LSE Research Online

Young	voters	and	their	“never	Tory”	mindset:	themaking	of	a	Labour	generation?The	last	general	election	brought	a	number	of	new	voters	into	the	electorate,	especiallyyounger	ones	who	having	voted	for	the	first	time,	are	more	likely	to	turn	out	in	futurecontests.	Anja	Neundorf	and	Thomas	J.	Scotto	argue	that	although	Labour	cannottake	their	support	for	granted,	for	many	of	them	the	Conservative	option	is	permanentlyoff	the	menu.Beyond	the	tallying	of	votes,	elections	serve	as	important	events	which	heighten	the	importance	of	politics	in	theminds	of	many	citizens.	For	young	people,	the	event	of	their	first	election	can	leave	behind	an	endurable	mark	ontheir	future	voting	behaviour.	Given	the	apparent	increased	mobilisation	and	massive	Labour	support	amongyoung	voters,	we	speculate	here	about	what	to	expect	from	this	generation	in	future	elections.The	2017	election	and	young	voters:	a	recapWho	gets	mobilised	by	specific	elections	varies	considerably.	Emerging	polling	data	from	the	2017	generalelection	paints	a	picture	that	a	segment	of	young	voters	were	very	much	motivated	by	Jeremy	Corbyn’s	anti-austerity	message.	Estimates	of	turnout	for	18-24	year	olds	varies	between	58%	(YouGov)	and	73%	(Ashcroft),far	surpassing	the	40%	that	became	the	norm	from	2001-2015.The	second	striking	preliminary	result	of	the	2017	election	is	the	distribution	of	votes	for	different	age	groups.According	to	YouGov,	about	64%	of	18-29	year	olds	voted	for	Labour	and	just	1	in	5	voted	Tory.	In	2015,	the	splitbetween	the	two	main	parties	was	36%	versus	32%	in	favour	of	Labour	among	this	age	group.	Due	to	cheapmembership	fees	and	an	anti-austerity	message	that	resonated	with	students,	Jeremy	Corbyn’s	Labour	Partybrought	many	into	the	political	fold	and	to	the	polls	for	the	first	time.	Seeing	a	surge	of	young	voters	will	haveconsequences	for	the	voting	behaviour	of	this	generation	in	future	elections.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Young voters and their “never Tory” mindset: the making of a Labour generation? Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-03Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge17-and-the-making-of-a-labour-generation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Loosing	the	youth:	the	consequencesThe	stark	difference	in	support	for	Labour	over	the	Tories	in	2017	will	serve	to	magnify	the	folly	of	the	PrimeMinister’s	decision	to	call	an	early	election	–	an	election	than	could	actually	mark	the	making	of	a	new	Labourgeneration,	or	at	the	very	least	of	an	anti-Tory	generation.Our	own	work	in	the	field	of	voting	behaviour	suggests	the	election	will	serve	as	a	formative	event	for	youngervoters.	In	both	the	United	States	and	the	United	Kingdom,	research	suggests	that	voting	is	habitual.	Work	bypolitical	scientist	David	Cutts	and	his	colleagues	theorizes	that	once	people	realise	how	easy	it	is	to	get	to	thepolls	and	cast	a	ballot,	psychological	barriers	to	voting	decline	dramatically.	Voters	with	records	of	activity	alsoare	easier	to	mobilise	via	contact	in	subsequent	campaigns,	and	this	may	be	particularly	true	for	Labour	whosedirect	membership	numbers	continue	to	grow.	Once	an	individual	makes	the	choice	to	go	to	the	ballot	box,	theyare	more	likely	to	do	the	same	in	future	elections.Will	the	youth	remain	loyal	to	Labour?Churchill	famously	said	that	“If	you’re	not	a	liberal	when	you’re	25,	you	have	no	heart.	If	you’re	not	a	conservativeby	the	time	you’re	35,	you	have	no	brain.”	Voters	who	enter	the	electorate	at	different	ages	bring	to	the	ballot	boxdifferent	concerns	and	this	affects	the	menu	of	parties	they	are	willing	to	consider.	A	student	who	votes	at	18	mayhave	university	tuition	rates	first	on	their	mind	and	would	consider	voting	for	Labour	and	the	Greens.	A	first	timehomeowner	who	is	36	may	favour	the	Tories	and	fear	Labour.	The	issues	citizens	feel	to	be	important	changeover	the	course	of	the	life	cycle,	but	identification	and	non-identification	persists	much	as	the	players	on	a	footballteam	change	but	fans’	loyalty	to	the	team	does	not.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Young voters and their “never Tory” mindset: the making of a Labour generation? Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-03Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge17-and-the-making-of-a-labour-generation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Traditionally,	researchers	view	partisan	identification	as	an	affective	orientation	to	a	particular	party,	but	ourresearch	shows	that	many	Britons	move	into	and	away	from	identification	with	a	party.	Empirical	results	from	ourresearch	using	data	from	the	British	Household	Panel	Study	from	the	early	1990s	to	early	2000s	shows	that	fewerthan	half	of	all	people	who	said	they	supported	Labour	at	one	point	in	time	did	so	every	time	they	were	asked	theparty	support	question.	Many	moved	in	and	out	of	having	an	affinity	for	the	Labour	Party	but	the	most	commontemporary	move	away	from	Labour	in	this	group	was	to	no	identification	at	all.What	we	do	not	witness	is	many	of	these	floating	Labour	supporters	moving	towards	any	type	of	support	for	theConservative	Party.	We	call	this	“bounded	partisanship”.	In	short,	people	are	more	likely	to	be	stable	in	tellingsurvey	researchers	which	political	party	they	will	never	support	than	consistent	supporters	of	a	particular	politicalparty.An	outlookAlthough	it	is	an	oversimplification	to	frame	the	2017	General	Election	as	solely	a	contest	between	the	young	andold,	Theresa	May	and	her	campaign	team	badly	underestimated	the	appeal	of	Jeremy	Corbyn’s	message	toyoung	voters.	Labour	seemed	to	have	a	leader	who	proved	to	have	a	passion	and	talent	for	mobilizing	the	young.The	gamble	the	Prime	Minister	made	in	calling	an	early	election	will	likely	have	ramifications	for	the	ConservativeParty	that	go	well	beyond	the	loss	of	their	parliamentary	majority.The	implications	of	the	research	cited	above	suggests	that	the	action	likely	brought	a	number	of	voters	into	theelectorate.	Not	only	are	more	18-24	year	olds	coming	into	the	electorate	than	ever	before,	our	work	also	suggeststhat	many	are	doing	so	with	a	“never	Tory”	mindset.	These	voters	may	move	to	new	parties	or	to	non-identification,	which	means	that	Labour	cannot	take	their	support	for	granted,	but	for	most,	the	Conservativeoption	is	permanently	off	the	menu.______About	the	AuthorsAnja	Neundorf	is	Associate	Professor	in	the	School	of	Politics	and	International	Relations	at	theUniversity	of	Nottingham.		British Politics and Policy at LSE: Young voters and their “never Tory” mindset: the making of a Labour generation? Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-03Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge17-and-the-making-of-a-labour-generation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Thomas	J.	Scotto	is	Head	of	the	School	of	Government	and	Politics	at	the	University	ofStrathclyde.		Image	credit:	Andy	Miah,	Flickr/CC	BY-NCBritish Politics and Policy at LSE: Young voters and their “never Tory” mindset: the making of a Labour generation? Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-07-03Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge17-and-the-making-of-a-labour-generation/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/

Young voters and their "never Tory" mindset: the making of a Labour generation?

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