Disillusionment with the second centre-left government of Michelle Bachelet will likely see the return of the conservative right, write Roland Benedikter (EURAC Research, COHA, University of Wroclaw) and Miguel Zlosilo (Artool, Chile) in the second of a two-part series on Chile's 2017 presidential election

Benedikter, Roland

Zlosilo, Miguel

LSE Research Online

Chile’s	2017	presidential	election:	who	will	win	andwhy?Disillusionment	with	the	second	centre-left	government	of	Michelle	Bachelet	will	likelysee	the	return	of	the	conservative	right,	write	Roland	Benedikter	(EURAC	Research,COHA,	University	of	Wroclaw)	and	Miguel	Zlosilo	(Artool,	Chile)	in	the	second	of	atwo-part	series	on	Chile’s	2017	presidential	election.•	Read	part	one:	Evaluating	the	second	Bachelet	governmentOpinion	polls	carried	out	before	the	elections	revealed	unambiguous	discontent	with	Bachelet’s	politics	andaspects	of	the	wider	political	system.	Paradoxically,	amongst	those	disappointed	are	those	who	benefited	mostfrom	Bachelet’s	second	term,	such	as	women’s	movements	and	environmentalists.Indeed,	this	is	a	key	feature	of	the	2017	elections:	even	those	whose	basic	demands	have	been	met	byBachelet’s	second	government	disagree	so	strongly	with	other	aspects	of	her	tenure	–	or	are	so	upset	withscandals	and	the	informal	“second	sphere”	operating	behind	Chile’s	institutionalised	politics	–	that	they	still	favoura	change	of	direction.Discontent	with	Bachelet’s	second	term	has	led	to	a	proliferation	of	candidates,	but	who	willprevail?	(myeviajes,	CC0)The	basic	pattern	reaffirms	what	analysts	have	long	called	Chile’s	“adolescent	democracy”,	which	ischaracterised	by	mood	swings	between	great	expectations	and	rapid	disappointment,	producing	a	persistentzigzagging	between	left	and	right	parties.One	partial	exception	is	the	novel	presence	of	a	segment	of	the	population	that	seeks	outsiders,	newcomers,	orcritics	of	the	current	political	system	outside	of	the	left-right	scheme,	including	candidates	with	a	strong	populistflavour	–	just	as	has	occurred	in	recent	European	and	US	elections.	The	worry	in	Chile’s	post-authoritariandemocracy	is	that	anti-democratic	forces	could	emerge	into	the	political	sphere	on	the	back	of	this	global	populistmomentum.The	candidatesLSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: who will win and why? Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-11-19Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/19/chiles-2017-presidential-election-who-will-win-and-why/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Disillusion	with	the	Bachelet	years	is	reflected	in	a	variety	of	factors,	not	least	the	proliferation	of	candidates.	Forthe	first	time	since	the	transition	to	democracy,	the	number	of	candidates	has	nearly	doubled;	this	has	oftenoccurred	elsewhere	in	South	America,	but	not	in	Chile.The	2017	presidential	candidates	can	be	divided	into	three	groups	based	on	the	likelihood	of	their	reaching	thedecisive	second	round:1.	Strong	contendersBillionaire	former	president	(2010-14)	Sebastián	Piñera,	supported	by	the	Chile	Vamos	alliance,	stands	a	goodchance	of	being	the	first	conservative-right	candidate	to	be	re-elected	since	Jorge	Alessandri	(1958-64).	Hispolitical	comeback	has	also	taken	considerably	less	time	and	effort	than	that	of	his	predecessor.Despite	being	linked	to	two	conservative	parties,	Piñera	tries	to	maintain	an	independent	profile,	citing	Christian-Democrat	Patricio	Aylwin	(1990-94)	–	Chile’s	first	democratically	elected	president	after	Salvador	Allende	–	as	hismain	reference	point.Aylwin	aimed	to	forge	agreements	between	social	classes	to	achieve	as	much	as	was	possible	given	conflictinginterests.	Piñera	is	promising	to	follow	in	his	footsteps	and	focus	on	equity	and	participation,	which	is	in	starkcontrast	to	the	neoliberal	past	of	his	party	alliance.Piñera	knows	that	growing	inequality	is	Chile’s	most	pressing	problem,	especially	for	the	middle	classes.		Bytargeting	it	he	hopes	to	gain	command	the	centre	ground	which	will	decide	the	election.67-year-old	Piñera	also	claims	to	be	the	“Anti-Jaime	Quintana”,	referring	to	the	president	of	the	leftist	party	Partyfor	Democracy,	17	years	his	junior	and	meant	here	as	a	symbol	of	continuity	for	the	governing	New	Majoritycoalition.Beyond	the	favourite,	one	of	the	strongest	candidates	to	reach	the	second	round	is	Alejandro	Guillier.The	64-year	old	senator	is	one	of	Chile’s	most	prominent	journalists,	known	for	his	role	on	leading	politicalprogrammes	such	as	Tolerancia	0	and	Factor	Guillier.	Guillier	is	a	sociologist	turned	politician	who	was	by	hisown	admission	dragged	towards	candidacy	by	public	opinion.He	was	nominated	as	an	independent	candidate	without	primaries,	representing	the	leftist	party	spectrum	ofRadicals,	Socialists,	Communists,	the	Party	for	Democracy,	MAS	Región	and	Citizen	Left	in	the	senate.Like	every	outsider	he	suspected	that	the	subtle	dilution	of	support	by	the	party	coalition	after	his	candidacy	wasintentional,	aiming	to	remove	him	from	coalition	and	party	in-fighting	at	a	time	when	public	perceptions	ofBachelet’s	second	term	make	continuation	in	power	seem	unlikely.Guillier	failed	to	produce	a	governmental	programme	before	the	elections	and	presented	only	a	vague	summary.Yet,	popular	reaction	suggests	that	this	may	turn	out	to	be	a	strength,	as	many	Chilean	voters	are	fed	up	withelaborate	platforms	that	are	ignored	once	their	proponents	achieve	power.2.	OutsidersAmongst	those	with	a	poorer	chance	of	reaching	the	second	round	is	Beatriz	Sánchez	(46),	also	a	prominentbroadcast	journalist.	She	is	the	candidate	of	the	Broad	Front,	an	association	of	leftist,	liberal,	and	civil-societyinitiatives	that	claims	to	offer	an	alternative	to	the	usual	dualism	of	left	(New	Majority)	and	conservative	right(Chile	Vamos).The	weakness	of	Sánchez’s	candidacy	stems	from	chronic	tensions	within	her	coalition	which	have	contributed	toa	sharp	drop	in	her	appeal.	Her	apparent	lack	of	preparation	also	reinforced	the	perception	that	she	hadbeen	chosen	as	something	of	a	guinea	pig	for	an	election	that	the	Broad	Front	knows	it	cannot	win.	Someconsider	that	the	long-term	goal	of	the	Broad	Front	is	to	promote	their	leading	faces,	such	as	Gabriel	Boric	andGiorgio	Jackson.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: who will win and why? Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-11-19Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/19/chiles-2017-presidential-election-who-will-win-and-why/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Such	internal	conflicts	have	not	been	adequately	resolved.	Most	notably,	much	tension	was	generated	by	leadingsociologist	and	political	analyst	Alberto	Mayol’s	choice	to	stand	as	a	candidate	in	the	same	district	of	Santiago	asGiorgio	Jackson,	the	former	president	of	an	important	student	union	and	spokesman	for	the	Chilean	Federation	ofStudents	(CONFECH).Another	outside	bet	is	Carolina	Goic	Boroevic	(45),	a	social	worker	and	activist	for	the	Christian-DemocraticParty	(PDC).	She	emerged	from	a	party	in	crisis	and	lacks	broad	support	from	its	base	or	clear	backing	from	itsfigureheads.	This	has	created	the	perception	that	she	is	the	least	dangerous	contender,	an	image	reinforced	byher	somewhat	desperate	decision	to	request	support	from	Guillier	despite	having	previously	attacked	him.Then	there	is	José	Antonio	Kast	Rist	(51),	often	dubbed	the	Chilean	Trump.	He	is	supported	by	parts	of	theextreme	right	and	some	sections	of	the	military.	He	has	at	times	presented	a	homophobic,	nationalist	discourse,including	justifications	of	past	violations	of	human	rights.	Kast	opposes	serious	reform	and	rejects	the	notion	thatthe	neoliberal	model	has	only	served	to	incubate	tensions	in	Chile	since	the	transition	to	democracy.Nevertheless,	like	Trump	in	the	US	he	could	become	the	surprise	package	of	this	election,	with	growing	inequalityand	fears	of	national	decline	fuelling	a	modest	rise	of	the	populist	right.Finally,	there	is	Marco	Enríquez-Ominami	(known	as	MEO,	44).	A	filmmaker	and	former	Socialist	congressman,he	is	the	phoenix	of	this	election.	After	being	linked	to	national	and	international	corruption	cases,	he	has	risenfrom	the	ashes	as	an	option	of	the	left.	In	the	final	week	of	the	campaign	he	was	even	invited	to	inaugurate	ahospital	together	with	the	leading	leftist	candidate	Guillier,	which	was	interpreted	as	a	strategic	call	for	left	unity.MEO	could	be	the	left’s	surprise	package,	though	he	has	almost	no	chance	of	reaching	the	second	round.3.	No-hopersLast	but	not	least,	there	are	candidates	with	no	chance	whatsoever	of	reaching	the	second	round.	The	mostprominent	amongst	them	is	Eduardo	Artés	(66),	a	secretary	general	of	the	Communist	party	and	president	of	thePatriotic	Union	(UPA).Who	is	going	to	win?Polls	commissioned	by	supporters	and	opponents	alike	suggest	that	the	winner	will	be	Sebastián	Piñera.	The	bigquestion	is	whether	he	will	be	able	to	win	in	the	first	round.If	not,	history	suggests	there	is	a	high	probability	of	the	leftist	coalition	taking	its	candidate	to	the	second	round,	atwhich	point	the	wider	left	will	have	the	option	of	establishing	a	broad	(and	essentially	instrumental)	anti-right	pact,as	has	happened	in	the	past.Here	the	main	driver	could	be	the	Broad	Front,	as	long	as	it	is	able	to	use	these	elections	to	distinguish	itselfpublicly	as	a	new	political	force	for	the	future.	Its	hopes	of	scaling	the	heights	of	Chilean	politics	alone	have	fadedafter	problems	in	its	primaries.The	bigger	questionsEven	if	we	see	the	polls	as	reliable	–	no	longer	self-evident,	as	elections	the	world	over	have	shown	of	late	–	thequestion	of	who	will	win	is	not	the	most	important.	There	are	three	fundamental	questions	with	greatersignificance	for	the	future:1.	 How	will	participation	evolve	in	terms	of	socio-demographic	profile	and	what	variables	will	mobilise	whoseparticipation?2.	 Will	a	new	configuration	emerge	with	the	aim	of	reforming	the	Chilean	political	system	or	will	the	status	quobe	strengthened?3.	 Will	the	differences	between	the	traditional	left	and	right	coalitions	be	strong	enough	to	break	the	hold	of“shadow	government”	by	closed-door	“family	politics”?LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: who will win and why? Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-11-19Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/19/chiles-2017-presidential-election-who-will-win-and-why/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/The	2017	elections	will	begin	to	provide	us	with	insights	into	how	Chilean	society	will	shape	its	answers	to	thesevital	questions	in	the	coming	years.Notes:•	The	views	expressed	here	are	of	the	authors	and	do	not	reflect	the	position	of	the	Centre	or	of	the	LSE•	Please	read	our	Comments	Policy	before	commentingRoland	Benedikter	–	EURAC	Research,	COHA,	University	of	WroclawRoland	Benedikter,	Dr.	Dr.	Dr.,	is	Co-Director	of	the	Center	for	Advanced	Studies	of	EuracResearch,	Senior	Research	Affiliate	of	the	Center	for	Hemispheric	Affairs	(COHA)	Washington	DC,and	Research	Professor	of	Multidisciplinary	Political	Analysis	in	residence	at	the	Willy	Brandt	Centreof	the	University	of	Wroclaw.	He	is	co-author	of	Chile	in	Transition:	Prospects	and	Challenges	ofLatin	America’s	Forerunner	of	Development	(Springer	International,	2015).	Contact:rbenedikter@eurac.eduMiguel	Zlosilo	–	Artool	(Chile)Miguel	Zlosilo,	MA,	is	Partner	of	leading	big-data	company	Artool	in	Santiago	de	Chile.	He	is	co-author	of	Chile	in	Transition:	Prospects	and	Challenges	of	Latin	America’s	Forerunner	ofDevelopment	(Springer	International,	2015).		Contact:	mzlosilo@artool.clLSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: who will win and why? Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2017-11-19Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/19/chiles-2017-presidential-election-who-will-win-and-why/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/

Chile's 2017 presidential election: who will win and why?

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