As the nation heads to the polls, the balance sheet of Michelle Bachelet's second government is negative, write Roland Benedikter (EURAC Research, COHA, University of Wroclaw) and Miguel Zlosilo (Artool, Chile) in the first of a two-part series on Chile's 2017 presidential election

Benedikter, Roland

Zlosilo, Miguel

LSE Research Online

Chile’s	2017	presidential	election:	evaluating	thesecond	Bachelet	governmentAs	the	nation	heads	to	the	polls,	the	balance	sheet	of	Michelle	Bachelet’s	secondgovernment	is	negative,	write	Roland	Benedikter	(EURAC	Research,	COHA,University	of	Wroclaw)	and	Miguel	Zlosilo	(Artool,	Chile)	in	the	first	of	a	two-partseries	on	Chile’s	2017	presidential	election.•	Read	part	two:	Who	will	win	and	why?On	Sunday	19	November,	Chile	goes	back	to	the	ballot	box,	with	presidential	and	general	elections	likely	toproduce	another	change	of	course	in	the	nation’s	young	democracy.	But	after	nearly	four	years	of	the	secondmandate	of	the	centre-leftist	government	of	Michelle	Bachelet	(since	March	2014),	the	mood	of	Chilean	voters	isnegative,	and	recent	polls	reveal	a	majority	unsatisfied	with	the	development	of	the	nation.Having	served	two	terms,	Michelle	Bachelet	bids	farewell	to	the	presidency	in	2017	(AlexProimos,	CC	BY	2.0)Changing	perceptions	of	the	Bachelet	governmentsBachelet’s	first	term	(2006-10)	ended	in	March,	2010,	with	record	popular	support	of	84	percent,	according	to	theSantiago-based	polling	firms	Adimark	GfK,	CEP	Chile,	and	CADEM.	At	the	start	of	her	second	term	in	March2014,	Bachelet	had	an	approval	rating	of	65	percent,	but	this	decreased	to	24	percent	at	the	end	of	2015	and	hadsunk	to	21	percent	in	August	2017.	Disapproval	of	Bachelet	was	higher	than	for	any	other	president	since	2000when	it	hit	56	percent	in	the	same	month.Adimark	and	CEP	found	in	August	2017	that	69	percent	of	Chileans	considered	the	country	to	be	in	a	state	ofstagnation,	while	just	16	percent	believed	that	it	was	progressing	and	14	percent	saw	it	in	decline.	These	are	themost	negative	figures	of	any	recent	president.Moreover,	approval	of	Bachelet’s	government	decreased	to	19	percent	in	August	2016,	rising	slightly	during	herfinal	year	in	tenure	to	reach	35	percent	in	August	2017.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: evaluating the second Bachelet government Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-11-18Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/18/chiles-2017-presidential-election-evaluating-the-second-bachelet-government/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/In	sum,	public	opinion	polls	shortly	before	the	elections	revealed	clear	discontent	with	Bachelet’s	politics,	as	wellas	with	most	parts	of	Chile’s	political	system.Understanding	shifts	in	voter	perceptionsAs	usual	in	post-dictatorship	Chile,	the	mood	curve	of	voters	mirrored	developments	in	the	governing	politicalalliance.		Chile’s	leftist	and	rightist	party	alliances	often	start	out	with	great	pathos,	but	serious	divisions	betweentheir	constitutent	groups	soon	emerge.Bachelet’s	mandate	was	a	constant	struggle	against	dissolution	of	her	alliance,	which	required	the	daily	forging	ofcompromises	and	a	consistently	brave	face	on	difficult	circumstances.	This	led	to	a	succession	of	lukewarmpositions	which	could	satisfy	neither	the	political	nor	the	public	sphere,	since	they	were	in	stark	contrast	to	thebold	moves	promised.Without	doubt,	the	process	of	reform	promised	by	Bachelet	faced	many	headwinds.	The	fall	of	copper	prices,	thetemporary	stagnation	of	emerging	economies,	and	a	hesitant	recovery	of	major	trade	partners	certainly	did	nothelp.However,	the	failure	of	Bachelet’s	second	political	project	was	due	mainly	to	internal	problems	rather	thanexternal	influences.	There	was	a	constant	crisis	of	Bachelet’s	reform	project,	both	in	terms	of	popular	support	andof	the	political	unity	of	her	alliance	at	the	institutional	level.		None	of	which	is	to	deny	that	her	efforts	did	generatepartial	success	and	a	symbolic	legacy	in	certain	domains,	not	least	gender	emancipation	and	the	environment.The	overall	judgement	of	Chilean	academics,	commentators,	and	intellectuals	appears	to	be	that	Bachelet’ssecond	government	failed	because	it	breached	her	five	fundamental	promises:1.	 A	tax	reform	that	would	reduce	inequality	and	collect	3%	of	GDP	to	finance	free	education	for	all	withoutputting	a	brake	on	economic	growth.2.	 An	educational	reform	that	would	end	profit	in	education,	provide	universal	free	education,	and	improve	itsquality.3.	 A	constitutional	reform	that	would	produce	a	new	constitution	with	the	meaningful	participation	of	Chileancivil	society	and	in	full	respect	of	current	institutions.4.	 A	labour	market	reform	that	would	end	the	growing	asymmetry	between	the	economic	power	of	employersand	workers,	as	well	as	promoting	unionisation.5.	 A	pension	reform	that	would	raise	pensions	via	a	better	structure	of	inter-generational	solidarity	andbring	the	state	into	the	pension	market	to	increase	competition,	lower	costs,	and	boost	benefits	forpensioners.All	of	these	reform	goals	fell	short	of	the	expectations.Bachelet’s	balance	sheet	on	five	fundamental	reformsBachelet’s	tax	reform	was	quickly	modified	and	became,	in	its	ultimately	half-hearted	incarnation,	a	perceivedcause	of	the	lax	growth	of	the	economy.	The	reform	was	widely	criticised	due	to	the	complexity	of	its	application,particularly	by	SMEs.	Before	it	passed	congress,	it	saw	higher	approval	than	disapproval	rates.	But	once	the	lawwas	passed,	the	trend	reversed	and	rejection	rose	to	twice	the	level	of	consent.The	educational	reform	failed	to	offer	universal	free	education	for	all	students.	It	did	not	end	profit-makingin	higher	education,	and	it	introduced	few	concrete	measures	to	improve	the	quality	of	education.	It	wasopposed	by	the	Chilean	Council	of	Rectors	and	by	the	main	private	universities.	After	several	protests	marches	in2015	public	disapproval	rate	of	this	reform	effort	reached	70%.		Disapproval	peaked	at	72%	shortly	afterBachelet’s	Higher	Education	Reform	in	2016	and	declined	in	2017	to	52%.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: evaluating the second Bachelet government Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-11-18Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/18/chiles-2017-presidential-election-evaluating-the-second-bachelet-government/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/The	constitutional	reform	failed	to	generate	an	official	document	that	included	agreements	achieved	from	town-council	meetings.	The	constituent	process	and	concrete	form	of	the	proposed	Magna	Carta	were	never	clarified.The	reform	process	failed	to	define	a	strategy	to	generate	substantial	changes	in	the	constitution	and	was	notable	to	specify	the	legal	form	of	carrying	them	out.Bachelet’s	labour	reform	largely	displeased	the	unions,	which	represent	a	significant	portion	of	her	constituencyand	governing	majority.	Rather,	the	reform	provoked	deep	disputes	over	the	legitimacy	of	leadership.	It	criticisedthe	business	community	and	SMEs:	the	first	because	of	its	profits	and	the	second	because	of	disparities	in	thefiscal	treatment	of	large	firms,	SMEs,	and	workers.	Even	union	leaders	felt	the	reform	was	tailored	to	suit	theneeds	of	the	banks	rather	than	the	man	in	the	street.	Public	approval	of	the	labour	reform	declined	consistentlyuntil	the	end	of	2016,	when	it	bounced	back	a	little.Finally,	the	pension	reform	failed	to	become	a	bill,	despite	the	persistence	of	the	executive.	The	closest	it	came	torealisation	was	the	so-called	Bravo	Commission,	which	failed	to	reach	a	consensus	between	those	in	favourof	raising	the	retirement	age	and	those	favouring	a	so-called	solidarity	pillar,	including	private	pension	insurance.This	reform	project	also	saw	higher	rates	of	public	disapproval	than	approval.Overall,	Bachelet	has	proved	unable	to	capitalise	on	her	20%	percent	winning	margin	in	December	2013’ssecond	round	and	move	forward	with	her	reform	project.	Despite	enjoying	an	unprecedented	majority	in	bothchambers,	she	did	not	properly	build	support	for	her	structural	reforms.	She	also	committed	serious	errors	in	theselection	of	her	main	collaborators	at	the	level	of	ministers	and	advisers,	not	to	mention	the	involvement	of	herson	Sebastián	Dávalos	in	a	real-estate	corruption	scandal	involving	parts	of	the	political	and	financial	elite.Critics	were	able	to	play	up	failings	at	the	social	level,	but	also	at	the	macroeconomic	level.	During	Bachelet’ssecond	mandate	neighbouring	Peru	outperformed	Chile	in	direct	foreign	investment,	threatening	Chile’s	dominantposition	in	the	copper	market	that	is	so	central	Chile’s	commercial	base.Thus,	the	distance	between	concrete	results	and	the	ambitious	objectives	outlined	at	the	start	of	her	tenuremeans	that	the	second	Bachelet	government	has	to	be	seen	as	a	failure.	Whatever	the	outcome	of	the	2017presidential	election,	the	new	government	would	do	well	to	learn	from	Bachelet’s	missed	opportunities.	Notes:•	The	views	expressed	here	are	of	the	authors	and	do	not	reflect	the	position	of	the	Centre	or	of	the	LSE•	Please	read	our	Comments	Policy	before	commentingRoland	Benedikter	–	EURAC	Research,	COHA,	University	of	WroclawRoland	Benedikter,	Dr.	Dr.	Dr.,	is	Co-Director	of	the	Center	for	Advanced	Studies	of	EuracResearch,	Senior	Research	Affiliate	of	the	Center	for	Hemispheric	Affairs	(COHA)	Washington	DC,and	Research	Professor	of	Multidisciplinary	Political	Analysis	in	residence	at	the	Willy	Brandt	Centreof	the	University	of	Wroclaw.	He	is	co-author	of	Chile	in	Transition:	Prospects	and	Challenges	ofLatin	America’s	Forerunner	of	Development	(Springer	International,	2015).	Contact:rbenedikter@eurac.eduMiguel	Zlosilo	–	Artool	(Chile)Miguel	Zlosilo,	MA,	is	Partner	of	leading	big-data	company	Artool	in	Santiago	de	Chile.	He	is	co-author	of	Chile	in	Transition:	Prospects	and	Challenges	of	Latin	America’s	Forerunner	ofDevelopment	(Springer	International,	2015).	Contact:	mzlosilo@artool.cl	LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Chile’s 2017 presidential election: evaluating the second Bachelet government Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-11-18Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/18/chiles-2017-presidential-election-evaluating-the-second-bachelet-government/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/

Chile's 2017 presidential election: evaluating the second Bachelet government

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