Strengthening the role of Africa’s urban areas as engines of growth remains a major challenge; while research can make a contribution, the focus needs increasingly to be on appropriate policies and the mobilisation of resources in support of those policie

Wenban-Smith, Hugh B.

LSE Research Online

21/06/2017 Strengthening the contribution of cities to growth - IGChttp://www.theigc.org/blog/strengthening-the-contribution-of-cities-to-growth-in-africa/ 1/4Authors Hugh Wenban-SmithIndependent ResearcherResearcherPublished on: 20 Mar 2015Countries: AfricaResearch themes: Cities Strengthening the contribution ofcities to growthStrengthening the role of Africa’s urban areas as enginesof growth remains a major challenge; while research canmake a contribution, the focus needs increasingly to be onappropriate policies and the mobilisation of resources insupport of those policiesTanzania, like other African countries is urbanising rapidly. Butwhereas in Asia, particularly China, urbanisation is a powerfulengine of growth, this is rarely the case in Africa. The IGCproject on ‘Population Growth, Internal Migration andUrbanisation in Tanzania’ investigates this issue with a view tobetter outcomes in future.Using data from all 5 post-Independence censuses we track thegrowth and movement of people between rural and urban areasacross mainland Tanzania’s 20 regions. By comparing actualpopulations with the populations that would be expected ifeach area grew at the national rate, the project has developedmeasures to compare the experience of different regions.For example, the propensity for regional in-migration comparesthe expected population of a region with its actual population,finding a wide range of outcomes. At one end, the population ofPwani region (including Dar es Salaam) in 2012 was 44%higher than expected while at the other, the population of Lindiregion was 30% lower, with other regions in between.Similarly, the propensity for rural out-migration and urban in-migration revealed big differences in regions’ experience. Thisregional data offers a much richer basis than country level datafor understanding what drives urbanisation.Figure 1: Regional variation in migration and urbanisationin TanzaniaTanzania 1978-2012: Regional variation in migration andurbanisation propensities21/06/2017 Strengthening the contribution of cities to growth - IGChttp://www.theigc.org/blog/strengthening-the-contribution-of-cities-to-growth-in-africa/ 2/4RPIM = Regional propensity for in-migration; PROM = Propensityfor rural out-migration; PUIM = Propensity for urban in-migration)The economic driversOf course, urbanisation cannot be understood without at thesame time considering what is happening in rural areas. Putcrudely, is it ‘Rural Push’ or ‘Urban Pull’ that is mainly drivingthe process?My own feeling is that ‘Rural Push’ is particularly important inTanzania’s case: The rural population is now three times aslarge as it was 50 years ago, greatly increasing the pressure onland and other natural resources such as water. At the sametime, there is some evidence that larger towns such as Dar esSalaam, Mwanza, Arusha and Mbeya were exerting ‘UrbanPull’, although in most regions smaller towns were growingmore strongly than regional capitals.Unfortunately, the evidence is not really good enough tosupport strong conclusions. However, the project findsindications that ‘Rural Push’ (as measured by density of ruralpopulation to cultivated land) was important in 1978-88 and1988-2002; consequential rural out-migration however waslower the further away a region was from Dar es Salaam. Thereare also indications that regions with large urban populationsattracted more in-migration, suggestive of ‘Urban Pull’ – despiteburgeoning informal settlements and limited opportunities forformal employment. There is an urgent need for more casestudies of Tanzania’s larger towns to flesh out this finding, asthere has been very little research on towns other than Dar esSalaam.What about institutions?Another pertinent question is the relative importance ofeconomic fundamentals (such as those considered above) andinstitutional factors (such as government policies and localadministrative structures). It seems clear that the latter cannotbe ignored in Tanzania’s case. The project finds evidence thatvillagisation (early 1970s) and state agricultural marketing (inthe late 1970s and early 1980s) impacted adversely on ruralareas, while over the same period policies for local governmentmade it more difficult for urban areas to respond to the influxof migrants. In fact, local government was abolished between1972 and 1982 and has only gradually been restored since.While the Local Government Reform Programme has now put acoherent framework in place for the administration of urbanareas, urban authorities still face difficulties due to lengthyprocedures and inadequate resources.Lessons: What next?Here then are some thoughts on lessons learned from thisproject and issues raised by it:1. Research in Africa is often hampered by lack of data. Censusdata is more often used for demographic than economic analysisbut this project has shown how useful it can be.21/06/2017 Strengthening the contribution of cities to growth - IGChttp://www.theigc.org/blog/strengthening-the-contribution-of-cities-to-growth-in-africa/ 3/4but this project has shown how useful it can be.2. Cross country studies in Africa are now quite common (despitereservations about the comparability of data), regional studiesmuch less so. Yet, in large countries like Tanzania, conditionscan vary widely between regions and this regional variation maybe more helpful in illuminating research questions than nationalaggregates. National aggregates hide much important localdetail.3. On the role of economic fundamentals, there can be little doubtthat poor internal communications (particularly roads), the smallsize of the domestic market and difficulties accessing potentialinternational markets (including port capacity) have all impededeconomic growth in Tanzania. This shows up particularly in therelative weakness of the urban economy; it also points to areasthat policy needs to address if the urban economy is to bestrengthened.4. It would have been good, if suitable data had been available, toharness the insights of New Economic Geography to betterunderstand the role of transport costs and agglomerationeconomies in the urbanisation process. As more data becomesavailable, this would be a promising avenue for future research.5. While rapid population growth is sometimes seen as a positivefactor because it boosts the working age population, this viewneeds to be balanced by noting the downsides: In Tanzania,about half the population is under 17 years of age; and despiterapid urbanisation, the rural population has increased threefold.The pressure of population on land and other natural resources iscreating severe strains in rural areas; at the same time urbanareas have been overwhelmed by an 18-fold increase inpopulation for which urban authorities simply do not have thecapabilities and resources to provide even basic services. Thissuggests a role for a more active population policy in Tanzania.6. Turning to local government, district administration hashistorically assumed a primarily rural context and given priorityto rural development. However, as settlements increase in sizeand existing urban areas attract more people, the problems thatneed to be addressed are increasingly urban in character.Government officials in Tanzania recognise this and haveadopted policies aimed at an orderly progression up the urbanhierarchy. However, making these policies work well in practiceis not easy, with particular difficulties being encountered inrelation to land use change, procedural challenges and lack ofresources to enable newly established urban councils to dischargetheir responsibilities – weak property taxation being a particularproblem. These issues arise in many other African countries,suggesting scope for pooling experience to identify the best waysto resolve these problems.Strengthening the role of Africa’s urban areasStrengthening the role of Africa’s urban areas as engines ofgrowth remains a major challenge; while research can make acontribution, the focus needs increasingly to be on appropriatepolicies and the mobilisation of resources in support of thosepolicies.21/06/2017 Strengthening the contribution of cities to growth - IGChttp://www.theigc.org/blog/strengthening-the-contribution-of-cities-to-growth-in-africa/ 4/4

Strengthening the contribution of cities to growth

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