Being the first without a majority in the Commons or the Lords for 40 years, how will May’s minority government implement any part of their legislative agenda? How will committees function? Will the smaller parties in the Commons work together? Marc Geddes, Alexandra Meakin, and Louise Thompson offer a preview of how the 2017 Parliament may function

Geddes, Marc

Meakin, Alexandra

Thompson, Louise

LSE Research Online

7/7/2017 Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’s legislative challenges | British Politics and Policy at LSEhttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/weak-government-strong-parliament/ 1/5Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’slegislative challengesBeing the first without a majority in the Commons or theLords for 40 years, how will May’s minority governmentimplement any part of their legislative agenda? How willcommittees function? Will the smaller parties in theCommons work together? Marc Geddes, AlexandraMeakin, and Louise Thompson offer a preview of how the 2017 Parliament may function.With the general election result coming as something of a surprise, our expectations about the waythat the 2017 Parliament would work have been thrown into doubt. Without the large governmentmajority that most expected, Parliament has arguably been empowered. Theresa May’s governmentmust be far more receptive to the will of MPs and peers in order to ensure a majority vote onproposals. So: what lies ahead?Legislation and procedureThe recent swearing in of MPs and Peers paves the way for the first, and crucial, item of business forthe start of any parliamentary session – the Queen’s Speech. Most obvious will be the impact of theelection on the content of the speech. Brexit Minister David Davis has already confirmed thatelements of the Conservative manifesto will have to be ‘pruned’. This is partly the result of the PrimeMinister’s small parliamentary majority, but it is also the result of her reliance on the DUP from nowon. The party’s leader, Arlene Forster, has said it is ‘right and proper’ that her MPs support theQueen’s Speech, but all eyes will be on the speech itself – to see if any Northern Ireland issues areincluded – as well as on the vote – to see just how tight the numbers are.The 2015 speech passed by 326 votes to 279. The 2017 Queen’s Speech will pass by a muchnarrower margin, though it is unlikely that it will not be passed. More challenging will be the passageof the full legislative programme over the rest of the parliamentary session (something which mayhave influenced the government’s decision to cancel the 2018 Queen’s Speech).If, as forecast, the government operates on a “confidence and supply” basis with the DUP, rather thana full coalition agreement, we may see some difficulties with the behind-the-scenes procedure in theCommons. While the government retains control over the vast majority of time in the chamber, it stillworks within the “usual channels” – the network of the Government and Opposition Chief Whips, theLeader of the Commons, and the Private Secretary to the Government Chief Whip – to utilise thiscontrol. It is unclear whether the official opposition, having indicated a wish to use parliamentaryprocedure to attack the government, will continue to cooperate within the usual channels as before(for example, over decisions over the allocation of select committee chairs and scheduling ofdebates).An added twist is the role of the DUP, who as the fifth largest party would not normally have any rolein key decisions, but may now seek such participation. With DUP support only committed on votes ofconfidence and certain finance votes, opposition parties may also decide to suspend pairing: theinformal arrangement where the whips manage absence from MPs by pairing MPs from oppositeparties to ensure their absences cancel each other out. Even the most routine votes may become farmore difficult for the government to win.7/7/2017 Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’s legislative challenges | British Politics and Policy at LSEhttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/weak-government-strong-parliament/ 2/5The status of the government means that opposition strategy will become even more important. TheSNP made headlines in the last parliament for their highly cohesive and disciplined operation, oftenturning up to Commons debates en masse.  Although they did work with Labour MPs, the two partieswere often at odds with each other over their support for the government. Indeed, the SNP went sofar as to claim that they were the ‘real opposition’ in the chamber. But where they did work together,they demonstrated that they could stop the government in its tracks. Most notable here was theparty’s decision to flout the traditional EVEL policy and oppose the government’s fox huntinglegislation. As a result, the government withdrew the measure before the Commons could evenconsider it.  The SNP may be a much reduced force in the coming Parliament, but will want to ensurethat their cohesion can be used to maximum effect.Committee scrutiny of billsParty balance is not only of concern on legislation. Oral questions, committee appointments,management and governance committees, speaking rights in the chamber, all proceed on the basisof the party balance. As a result, the governing party would usually hold the majority of committeepositions and more of its MPs would be called to speak in debates. But in a minority governmentsituation, this will no longer be guaranteed. Meg Russell has already noted that bill committees couldbecome particularly contentious over the next few months.The committee stage of bills is generally considered by parliamentary observers to be ritualistic anduneventful; with a built in government majority, it only aids the speedy passage of legislation (theNHS reform bill was one brief exception, with a revised version being sent back to committee). Opposition amendments can – and do – pass, but usually only with the assent of the governmentminister. Government defeats are rare and usually opportunistic, with opposition MPs pushingamendments to a division if they realise that government MPs have stepped out of the room or failedto turn up in time.  It is not yet clear what the party balance of MPs will be on committees, but if thegovernment has a very slim – or indeed no – majority, this type of opportunism could become thenorm. It is unlikely that we would see bills being defeated at committee stage, but it could mean thatthe government is forced to accept amendments or new clauses which it would otherwise haverejected.There has also been much speculation about the future of the English Votes for English Lawsprocedures. As the House of Commons library blog demonstrates, the Conservatives still retain a7/7/2017 Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’s legislative challenges | British Politics and Policy at LSEhttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/weak-government-strong-parliament/ 3/5majority in each of the three EVEL constituencies. This means that it will be much harder foropposition parties to block measures in the Commons which proceed through the EVEL procedures –and this will also apply to committee stages. So we can expect to see smaller parties protesting aboutthis. The SNP have said before that ‘English only’ issues affect Scotland, and that they are willing tovote on them.Select committee scrutinyAs with public bill committees, there are questions over the make-up of select committees. Theallocation and election of chairs will be especially important to watch. Allocations are decided by theusual channels and there might be calls from Labour to gain an extra chair (in 2015-17, theConservatives held 12 chairs and Labour 10). In general, we can also make some widerassumptions: Public Accounts, Standards and Backbench Business are traditionally held by theopposition; Treasury and Foreign Affairs by the government. The SNP held two committee chairshipsin the last parliament but the reduction of the party, there might be questions over whether thenumber of chairs is also reduced.Beyond allocations, who will fill the roles? Policy scrutiny is hugely dependent on the relationships,reputations, and performance styles that chairs adopt. In the past, Andrew Tyrie was a big thorn inthe government’s side, but his retirement leaves the chairship of the Treasury Committee (andLiaison Committee) open (Jacob Rees-Mogg has already announced his intention to stand). NeilCarmichael lost his seat at this election, meaning there will be a new chair for the EducationCommittee. In general, we do not know who will stand or re-stand because nominations have notopened yet.There are also questions about whether former Labour frontbenchers will return to the ShadowCabinet at some point in the future (for example, although there were early rumours that YvetteCooper could become Shadow Home Secretary, this has not happened). Will Hilary Benn seekelection to chair the Brexit Committee? As a defining issue for British politics, and given the hungParliament, this could be a pivotal brokering role despite the complications the committee has facedin the past. Can it build the much-desired cross-party consensus? Or could it be overshadowed by across-party commission?As with the Brexit Committee, committee success is dependent on size and make-up. Interestingly, itis not clear yet if select committees will have a government majority. Membership is supposed toreflect the balance of the House, so what will this mean for the standard 11-member committeemake-up? Six Conservatives, four Labour and one from a third party might be difficult for theopposition to accept, so could we see an even split between the main parties?In any case, it is unlikely that committees will hit the ground running any time soon: elections forchairs are pencilled in for early- to mid-July, but membership is unknown and with parliamentaryrecess, we might not see any committee hearings until October. This could, of course, empowernewly-elected chairs to set their agenda and build links to key stakeholders inside government andoutside organisations.This brings us to the final point: what exactly will be on the agenda for committees? The threat ofanother general election and eight-year term limits on chairs (many of whom were elected in 2010)could keep agendas tightly focused on short-term issues, with wider implications for scrutiny. Anysuggestion of suspending pairing, as mentioned above, might make overseas trips difficult forcommittees.Issues for the new Parliament7/7/2017 Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’s legislative challenges | British Politics and Policy at LSEhttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/weak-government-strong-parliament/ 4/5As might be clear by this point, there are huge questions over the government’s ability to carry out anambitious political programme. That said, there are huge issues that Parliament faces, including:security and terrorism; austerity and deepening social inequalities (as epitomised by the recentGrenfell disaster); power-sharing in Northern Ireland, especially as a result of ongoing talks betweenthe Conservative Party and the DUP; and – a defining moment in British politics and history –continued negotiations over Brexit.The legislative agenda means that these are likely to be challenging times for our Parliament. Whatdoes seem clear, however, is that Parliament itself is unlikely to undergo major reforms. Restorationand renewal of the Palace of Westminster, already far behind schedule, is likely to be kicked into thelong grass; the 2010 constituency boundaries look remarkably resilient despite an ongoing boundaryreview; and House of Lords reform is unlikely. Indeed, the battles between the Lords and theCommons are likely to continue: the new government is likely to face similar battles as itspredecessor (which was defeated 98 times by Peers in two years), due to its lack of a majority in thesecond chamber. And unlike its predecessor, the position of the new government may be impeded byits lack of a majority in the Commons, raising issues around whether the Salisbury Conventionapplies if a mandate has not been secured for specific manifesto commitments.For years, Parliament was seen to be in decline: a trajectory that changed course in 2010 when anew House of Commons rebuilt its reputation after the expenses scandal. Over the last seven years,rejuvenated select committees and more topical debates in the chamber have reinstated Parliamentat the heart of our representative democracy. Yet there is much we do not yet know about how MPsand Peers will view their roles; how committees will function; whether the smaller parties in theCommons will work together; and whether the Conservative-DUP arrangement can survive.The last two years in Parliament demonstrate the difficulty of predicting the future, but as the firstgovernment without a majority in the Commons or Lords for 40 years sets out its legislative agenda, itis likely that Parliament’s importance could increase even further. The question therefore becomes:will Parliament step up?______About the AuthorsMarc Geddes is Lecturer in British Politics at the University of Edinburgh.  Alexandra Meakin is a PhD candidate in the Department of Politics at the Universityof Sheffield, and a Research Associate in the Crick Centre. Louise Thompson is Lecturer in British Politics at the University of Surrey.   7/7/2017 Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’s legislative challenges | British Politics and Policy at LSEhttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/weak-government-strong-parliament/ 5/5June 20th, 2017 | Alexandra Meakin, British and Irish Politics and Policy, Featured, GE2017, LouiseThompson, Marc Geddes, Party politics and elections | 1 CommentImage credit: Pixabay/Public DomainThis work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.

Weak government, strong parliament? A preview of Theresa May’s legislative challenges

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