Sir Tony Brenton, former British Ambassador to the Russian Federation reflects on Vladimir Putin’s recent election win, the economic challenges Russia faces over the next two decades, and gives EU leaders some advice on how they should engage with Russia

Brenton, Tony

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LSE Research Online

blogs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/03/16/5-minutes-with-sir-tony-brenton/Five minutes with Sir Tony Brenton: “In twenty years’time Russia won’t be perfect, but it will be a great dealcloser to what Europe can regard as good neighbourthan it is now”Mar 16 2012Sir Tony Brenton, former British Ambassador to the Russian Federation reflectson Vladimir Putin’s recent election win, the economic challenges Russia facesover the next two decades, and gives EU leaders some advice on how they shouldengage with Russia.Vladimir Putin won the election on March 4th with 63%. Do you think thisreflects his true popularity in Russia?   The elections were tainted in a lot of ways according to the international observers. In the run up,opposition candidates were quite explicitly excluded and the official press very forcefully supportedPutin. The count itself was problematic; there was something the Russians call the carousel, wherevotes are shipped around from post to post.Putin’s total was almost certainly inflated by around 10-15 per cent, and that is consistent with whathas happened in previous Russian presidential Duma elections. However, even when you take outthe fraud element from the elections, Putin still enjoys the support of close to the majority ofRussians. There are good reasons for that; Putin has brought Russia prosperity, stability, and acertain measure of national pride. If you think back to how Russia was in the year 2000 when Putintook over, everything had gone wrong, and a lot has gone right since then. Many Russians still valuePutin for that reason.You have served as the British Ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008. What do youthink is the most important policy challenge that it currently faces?The core challenge that Russia faces is in fact economic which is linked to Russia’s demography.The Russians are dying off slowly. Russia is as prosperous as it is at the moment only because ofits exports of natural resources, particularly oil and gas. It has a very one-dimensional economy, andan economy which is very dependent upon the global oil price. Whenever the global oil price goesdown significantly, as it did in 1991, 1998 and in 2008 that has a very sharp effect on the Russianeconomy.There is a cluster of economic problems that has to be the central objective of the Russian state todeal with. Russia needs to modernize its economy, to make more use of human capital, skills andscientific knowledge, in order to generate high-tech industry. An obstacle to that is, because of thevery authoritarian way Russia has been run, there is rampant corruption. It is extraordinarily difficultto set up and run a successful business in Russia today, and the authorities need to deal with thatcorruption if they’re to get the economic dynamism and growth which they need. Linked to that, thereis a problem with the rule of law in Russia. The legal authorities are linked too strongly to the state orlocal interests, and companies that want to set up do not have actual legal recourse if they get intoproblems.In addition, Russia sees outside threats. China is growing very quickly to their East, which they haveto adjust to, and the east of Siberia is full of natural resources for which the Chinese are hungry.There is a military imbalance developing there which is worrying for the Russians.Credit: World Economic Forum(Creative Commons BY SA)And the Russians face similar problems in the South to the UK and the USA with Islamicfundamentalism; they’ve had problems with Chechnya. One reason why the Russians are so activein Afghanistan is that they are more frightened about the Taliban coming back.How do Russian leaders today see the European Union?Slightly dismissively, though Europe has a lot of what they want. We are rich, we are well-established, we are secure, we have very well-developed and diverse economies, and we takemore of half of Russia’s exports. Russians think of themselves as Europeans; talk to any Russianand they will say: “I am a European”. So while they value the political link, they don’t see Europe as avery well-established political entity, although they do deal with individual European countries whichthey take seriously – such as Germany and the UK. Russia tends to play European countries offagainst one another in their dealings with the continent as a whole.Do you think that Putin is capable of undertaking the reforms necessary such as tacklingcorruption?Of course Putin is constrained by corruption at the top of hisadministration. And this corruption at the top makes it verydifficult to achieve the reforms which are needed. Also, hehas been strident in his rhetoric against the demonstratorsover the last two or three months in Russian politics.Putin is very pragmatic and sensible. He has seen what hashappened in the Arab world. He does not want to end upruling Russia by brutally repressing portions of his people,and we have already seen signs of him looking for commonground with the demonstrators. There are now a couple oflaws going to the Duma trying to open up the electionprocess a little bit, and fascinatingly, it has just beenannounced that the prosecutors will again look at the case ofMikhail Khodorkovsky, viewed by Putin as a real threat to hisregime, and sent to Siberia for 8 years. There are odd strawsin the wind that he is looking for common ground.  I actuallybelieve that Putin is pragmatic enough to find a constructiveway to undertake more reforms, but if he doesn’t Russiafaces very real problems and potentially a messy ending tohis regime.Where do you see Russia in 20 years from now? I am an optimist about Russia. The Russians are welleducated, highly sophisticated, talented people, and despitetheir 500 years of rotten government, there are enough good people around.  They are building upexperience of travel, close links to Europeans, and they have opened up massively by comparisonwith Communism. They will continue to go down that road and there will be bumps and, ups anddowns. In twenty years’ time, Russia won’t be perfect, but it will be a great deal closer to whatEurope can regard as good neighbour than it is now.How do you suggest national and EU leaders should engage with Russia over the nextdecade?There is a certain tendency among European politicians to pander to Russia. “They have had a badhistory. We need to be nice to them.”, and therefore not to criticise the bad things such as theconduct of the elections that we’ve just seen. I think you have to say: “Yes, we want to supportRussia. Yes, we want to help Russia forward in terms of economic and other forms of cooperation,but we need to be very clear that when Russia breaches its international commitments, for example,not holding free and fair elections, then we will clearly criticize them and say that this is a departurefrom the norms of behaviour we expect, and we want Russia to do better.” So it’s a matter of beingclear that Russia observes its commitments, but at the same time holding out our hand to Russia sothat it develops in the way we want it to.Please read our comments policy before commenting.Note:  This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of EUROPP – EuropeanPolitics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics. ________________________________About the authorSir Tony Brenton – Former British Ambassador to the Russian FederationSir Tony Brenton has worked for over 30 years for the British Foreign Office, and hasdealt with European matters both in London and in Brussels, as well as being basedin Washington after 2001. From 2004 to 2008 he was British Ambassador to theRussian Federation. He is a Fellow of Wolfson College Cambridge and is writing abook on Russian history.Related posts:1. The Euro was locked into its current crisis twenty years ago by the Maastricht negotiators,who ceded authority to the financial markets2. Book Review: The Strongman: Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia by Angus Roxburgh

Five minutes with Sir Tony Brenton: “In twenty years’ time Russia won’t be perfect, but it will be a great deal closer to what Europe can regard as good neighbour than it is now”

Five minutes with Sir Tony Brenton: “In twenty years’ time Russia won’t be perfect, but it will be a great deal closer to what Europe can regard as good neighbour than it is now”

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