Though Bolsonaro has little relevant experience, a poor record as a legislator, and few economic, fiscal, or foreign-policy proposals, his ability to capitalise on widespread hostility to Brazilian politics and politicians has made him the second most popular candidate for the 2018 presidential election, writes Mark S. Langevin (George Washington University)

Langevin, Mark S.

LSE Research Online

Brazil’s	crisis	of	political	legitimacy	has	opened	thedoor	to	rant-and-rave	populist	Jair	BolsonaroThough	Bolsonaro	has	little	relevant	experience,	a	poor	record	as	a	legislator,	and	few	economic,fiscal,	or	foreign-policy	proposals,	his	ability	to	capitalise	on	widespread	hostility	to	Brazilian	politicsand	politicians	has	made	him	the	second	most	popular	candidate	for	the	2018	presidential	election,writes	Mark	S.	Langevin	(George	Washington	University).The	Brazilian	body	politic	is	bruised	and	battered.	President	Michel	Temer	is	crippled	from	seriouscharges	of	corruption	and	a	5	percent	approval	rating.	His	reform	agenda	is	losing	steam.	A	majorityof	Brazilians	distrust	the	country’s	major	political	leaders	and	parties,	yet	they	still	trust	that	elections	are	the	curefor	the	wounds	ripped	open	by	recession,	corruption,	and	last	year’s	presidential	impeachment.The	moment	is	ripe	for	an	outsider,	a	populist	who	can	channel	alienation	and	hostility	into	a	presidentialcampaign	that	casts	stones	at	the	political	establishment.	Brazilians	are	considering	all	of	their	options	withpresidential	elections	less	than	a	year	away.	Predictably,	former	President	Luiz	Inácio	Lula	da	Silva	leads	thefield,	but	he	is	followed	by	Jair	Bolsonaro.Jair	Bolsonaro	is	targeting	the	presidency	in	2018	(Jeso	Carneiro,	CC	BY-BC	2.0)Bolsonaro	is	a	former	military	officer	turned	federal	deputy	for	the	state	of	Rio	de	Janeiro.	He	has	provedcontroversial	and	polarising,	whether	in	his	military	career	or	his	seven	consecutive	congressional	terms.	Havinglong	occupied	the	margins	of	institutional	power,	Bolsonaro	is	now	trying	to	break	into	the	mainstream	with	adivisive,	scapegoating,	rant-and-rave	populism.Interests	over	institutionsBolsonaro	served	in	the	Brazilian	Army’s	infantry	as	a	paratrooper,	reaching	the	rank	of	captain	before	retiringinto	politics	in	1988.	According	to	several	of	his	superiors,	Bolsonaro	exhibited	“excessive	financial	ambitions”and	a	leadership	style	that	lacked	“logic,	rationality	and	balance.”In	1986	he	published	an	opinion	piece	in	Brazil’s	major	weekly	magazine,	Veja,	advocating	higher	salaries	forsoldiers	and	junior	officers.	His	commanders	jailed	him	for	two	weeks.	Bolsonaro	learned	that	advocacy	throughconfrontation	in	the	name	of	patriotism	could	elicit	sympathy	and	galvanise	political	support.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Brazil’s crisis of political legitimacy has opened the door to rant-and-rave populist Jair Bolsonaro Page 1 of 5		Date originally posted: 2017-11-29Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/29/brazils-crisis-of-political-legitimacy-has-opened-the-door-to-rant-and-rave-populist-jair-bolsonaro/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/While	this	leadership	style	did	not	work	especially	well	in	the	military,	the	same	populist	mix	of	confrontation	andflag-waving	patriotism	propelled	his	rapid	rise	through	successive	election	cycles.	In	1988	he	won	a	seat	on	Riode	Janeiro’s	city	council	as	a	member	of	the	Christian	Democratic	party	and	followed	that	two	years	later	by	beingvoted	in	as	a	federal	deputy.He	has	now	won	seven	consecutive	winning	elections,	learning	along	the	way	how	to	mobilise	voters	frustratedby	corruption,	violence,	and	the	pervasive	lawlessness	that	Brazilians	endure	every	day:	rather	than	outliningpolicy	solutions,	Bolsonaro	blames	everybody	but	himself	in	the	hope	of	getting	a	boost	at	the	polls.Disruption	and	party	crashingBolsonaro	is	disruptive	and	disloyal.	He	left	his	military	post	after	insubordination	and	later	admitted	toconsidering	violence	as	a	tactic	to	advance	his	cause	of	higher	wages	for	soldiers.During	his	twenty-seven	years	as	a	federal	deputy	he	has	switched	political	parties	at	least	seven	times.	Hebecame	affiliated	with	the	Christian	Democratic	Party	in	1988,	but	since	then	he	has	been	a	member	of	theProgressive	Party	(2005-2016),	the	Liberal	Front	Party	(2005-2005),	the	Brazilian	Labour	Party	(2003-2005),	theBrazilian	Progressive	Party	(1995-2003),	the	Brazilian	Progressive	Reform	Party	(1993-1995),	and	theProgressive	Party	(1993).Currently	a	member	of	the	Social	Christian	Party,	he	recently	signalled	his	intention	toleave	for	a	newly	formed	party	called	Patriot.Throughout	his	career	he	has	used	political	parties	as	vehicles	for	his	own	purposes	rather	than	as	representativepolitical	organisations	capable	of	formulating	policy	solutions,	aggregating	national	interests,	and	electing	othersto	office	(aside	from	his	sons	and	first	wife).Overall,	his	record	reveals	a	pattern	of	disruption,	political	infidelity,	and	lots	of	party	crashing.Controversy	over	contentBolsonaro	received	120,000	votes	in	the	2010	elections,	the	eleventh	highest	total	among	candidates	in	the	stateof	Rio.	In	2014	he	received	463,572,	the	most	votes	of	any	candidate.Yet,	during	his	seven	terms	in	office	Bolsonaro	has	achieved	passage	of	only	two	pieces	of	legislation	and	oneconstitutional	amendment	(there	are	over	97	amendments	to	the	1988	Federal	Constitution).He	sought	the	passage	of	an	exemption	from	the	Industrial	Product	Tax	for	computer	purchases	and	another	lawapproving	the	use	of	the	controversial	“cancer	pill,”	phosphoethanolamine.	In	2015	he	gained	congressionalapproval	for	a	constitutional	amendment	requiring	electronic	voting	machines	to	issue	a	paper	receipt.	He	hasbeen	a	candidate	for	President	of	the	Chamber	of	Deputies	on	three	occasions,	most	recently	this	year,	when	hereceived	the	backing	of	just	four	of	513	federal	deputies.Overall,	his	track	record	in	the	Brazilian	Congress	is	mediocre	and	demonstrates	a	lack	of	serious	interest	inlegislating.Bolsonaro’s	populism	works	at	the	polls,	but	it	appears	to	alienate	his	congressional	colleagues	and	derail	effortsto	formulate	serious	public	policy	proposals	to	address	many	of	Brazil’s	challenges,	including	crime	and	violence–	though	these	very	issues	are	often	the	subject	of	his	ranting	and	raving.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Brazil’s crisis of political legitimacy has opened the door to rant-and-rave populist Jair Bolsonaro Page 2 of 5		Date originally posted: 2017-11-29Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/29/brazils-crisis-of-political-legitimacy-has-opened-the-door-to-rant-and-rave-populist-jair-bolsonaro/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Bolsonaro	is	the	most	active	(and	interactive)	2018	candidate	on	social	media,	with	nearly	5million	Facebook	followersHis	presidential	campaign,	meanwhile,	pivots	on	polarisation	rather	than	common	cause.	His	Facebook	andTwitter	posts	provide	a	relentless	stream	of	diatribes	with	which	to	goad	his	five	million	“friends.”His	growing	notoriety	stems	from	his	passionate	celebration	of	the	military	dictatorship	(1964-1985),	especially	hishonouring	of	former	President	Dilma	Rousseff’s	torturer	when	he	cast	his	vote	for	her	impeachment	in	April	of2016.		He	also	accuses	opponents	of	being	paedophiles	and	communists;	makes	degrading	statements	aboutwomen,	the	LGBT	community,	Afro-Brazilians,	and	immigrants;	and	praises	gun	ownership	in	a	countrypockmarked	by	gun-related	accidents	and	violence.His	defamations	and	provocations	–	for	which	he	has	twice	been	convicted	–	bruise	and	fracture	the	body	politic,but	his	campaign	is	guided	by	social-media	analytics	rather	than	a	sober	analysis	of	what	Brazilians	need	fromgovernment.And	on	that	score	he	is	succeeding.		Since	January	of	2014	Bolsonaro	has	registered	93.4	million	Facebookinteractions,	compared	to	66.4	million	for	Lula	during	the	same	period,	making	him	the	most	active	federal	deputyon	social	media.Bolsonaro’s	opportunityBolsonaro	has	always	been	opportunistic,	a	political	party	crasher	waiting	for	the	door	to	open.	Today,	Brazil’smajor	leaders	and	political	parties,	including	former	presidents	Fernando	Henrique	Cardoso,	Lula,	and	Dilma,	aswell	as	the	corrupt	Temer	administration,	have	swung	the	door	wide	open.The	rise	of	Bolsonaro	and	his	rant-and-rave	populism	can	only	be	understood	by	measuring	the	political	distancethat	now	separates	most	Brazilians	from	their	representatives	in	Brasilia.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Brazil’s crisis of political legitimacy has opened the door to rant-and-rave populist Jair Bolsonaro Page 3 of 5		Date originally posted: 2017-11-29Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/29/brazils-crisis-of-political-legitimacy-has-opened-the-door-to-rant-and-rave-populist-jair-bolsonaro/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Disapproval	of	politics	and	politicians	is	sky	high,	yet	citizens	still	see	elections	as	a	wayout	(Agência	Brasil	Fotografias,	CC	BY	2.0)The	Fundação	Gétulio	Vargas	recently	found	that	83%	of	respondents	disapprove	of	the	current	government,78%	disapprove	of	the	political	parties,	and	78%	disapprove	of	politicians	in	general.	63%	stated	that	corruptionwas	the	major	issue	and	55%	reported	that	they	would	no	longer	vote	for	an	incumbent.	Nearly	a	third	of	therespondents	stated	they	would	not	cast	a	valid	vote	for	the	presidency	in	2018,	yet	65%	saw	elections	as	the	bestmeans	of	turning	the	page.The	FGV	study	reveals	the	high	degree	of	citizen	estrangement	from	government,	but	it	also	highlights	citizenpreferences	for	both	“outsider”	candidates	and	elections	to	resolve	the	country’s	political	crisis.	Bolsonaro	hasseized	on	these	sentiments	to	present	himself	as	the	outsider,	the	honest	patriot,	and	the	law-and-ordercandidate.Bolsonaro	is	not	an	outsider,	but	he	is	different.	A	recent	DataFolha	public	opinion	poll	on	2018	presidentialcandidates	shows	Lula	in	the	lead	with	35%,	Bolsonaro	second	with	17%,	and	Marina	Silva	–	who	came	third	inthe	2010	and	2014	elections	–	with	13%.	But	if	Lula	fails	to	overturn	his	conviction	on	corruption	charges,	the	toptwo	candidates	would	be	Marina	Silva	(22%)	and	Bolsonaro	(19%).Most	importantly,	his	supporters	are	disproportionately	male	(66%),	middle-income	earners	with	no	politicalaffiliation.	Lula’s	support	is	balanced	between	males	and	females,	while	60%	of	Marina	Silva	supporters	arewomen.	Lula	draws	disproportionate	support	from	lower-income	earners,	while	Marina	Silva’s	support	is	evenlydistributed.	Lula’s	base	is	associated	with	the	Workers	Party,	but	Marina	Silva’s	support	is	among	unaffiliatedrespondents.The	key	difference	in	Bolsonaro’s	current	support	base	is	that	this	disproportionately	male,	middle	class,	and“pissed	off”	group	is	relatively	unlikely	to	change	their	voting	intention	in	2018.There	is	no	guarantee	that	Bolsonaro	will	be	able	to	take	advantage	of	this	opportunity,	however,	as	he	lacks	theleadership	skills	to	make	the	most	of	it.	Unlike	other	leading	candidates,	Bolsonaro	has	never	held	an	executiveposition,	has	shown	no	ability	to	lead	an	institution	or	organise	a	party,	and	has	not	produced	economic,	fiscal,	orforeign-policy	alternatives.Instead,	his	rise	relies	on	the	political	crisis,	self-promotion,	and	political	polarisation.	He	throws	fuel	on	every	firebut	always	pulls	the	ripcord	on	open	debate	on	the	public	policy	issues	of	the	day.	He	wants	to	crash	the	party,but	he	doesn’t	want	to	explain	why	he	even	came.LSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Brazil’s crisis of political legitimacy has opened the door to rant-and-rave populist Jair Bolsonaro Page 4 of 5		Date originally posted: 2017-11-29Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/29/brazils-crisis-of-political-legitimacy-has-opened-the-door-to-rant-and-rave-populist-jair-bolsonaro/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/Some	have	suggested	that	it	is	best	to	ignore	Bolsonaro	and	hope	he	goes	away,	but	he	and	his	followers	arehere	to	stay.	It’s	time	that	Brazilians	across	the	political	spectrum	confront	him	with	the	tough	policy	questionsbefore	they	let	him	through	the	door.	Author’s	note:I	invited	Federal	Deputy	Jair	Bolsonaro	to	participate	in	a	question	and	answer	event	for	the	Brazil	Initiative	at	theElliott	School	of	International	Affairs-The	George	Washington	University	in	Washington,	D.C.	on	October	13,2017.	Bolsonaro’s	advisers	suggested	a	joint	activity	and	I	agreed	after	stipulating	that	the	event	would	be	opento	the	public	and	press,	and	feature	public	policy	questions	offered	from	our	faculty	and	students.	We	agreed	thatthe	questions	would	explore	democratic	governance,	economic,	educational,	environmental,	fiscal,	foreign,	andsocial	policies	and	programs.	We	also	agreed	that	the	last	round	would	be	dedicated	to	the	press.	The	day	beforethe	event	I	communicated	a	list	of	the	credentialed	media	(including	prominent	Brazilian	media	outlets)	to	theBolsonaro	team.	Within	hours	they	called	to	cancel	the	event.Notes:•	The	views	expressed	here	are	of	the	authors	and	do	not	reflect	the	position	of	the	Centre	or	of	the	LSE•	Please	read	our	Comments	Policy	before	commentingMark	S.	Langevin	–	Elliott	School	of	International	Affairs,	George	Washington	University	Mark	S.	Langevin,	Ph.D,	is	Director	of	the	Brazil	Initiative	and	Research	Professor	at	the	ElliottSchool	of	International	Affairs-The	George	Washington	University,	Director	of	BrazilWorks,	andMember	of	the	International	Council	of	the	Centro	Brasileiro	de	Relações	Internacionais	(CEBRI).He	can	be	contacted	at:	langevin@gwu.eduLSE Latin America and Caribbean Blog: Brazil’s crisis of political legitimacy has opened the door to rant-and-rave populist Jair Bolsonaro Page 5 of 5		Date originally posted: 2017-11-29Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2017/11/29/brazils-crisis-of-political-legitimacy-has-opened-the-door-to-rant-and-rave-populist-jair-bolsonaro/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/

Brazil's crisis of political legitimacy has opened the door to rant-and-rave populist Jair Bolsonaro

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