The London School of Economics and Political Science
Abstract
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to cast their minds towards the fall general election. But what is the best way to predict the outcome? Andreas Graefe argues that given the plethora of models and forecasting methods which are available, the best option is to combine all the approaches into one forecast. Using this combined approach – which has been accurate over the last three presidential elections – the PollyVote.com currently predicts that a Democrat would win nearly 53 percent of the two-party vote in November, while a Republican would gain just over 47 percent
