Greenland will hold elections on 28 November following an expenses scandal involving Prime Minister Aleqa Hammond, which led to the collapse of the government. Ulrik Pram Gad writes that while there is strong support within Greenland for establishing independence from Denmark, the recent political turmoil has undermined plans to use investment in extractive industries such as mining as the basis for an independent economy. He argues that the situation could present an opportunity for the EU to engage in closer bilateral co-operation with the country, particularly given Greenland’s natural resources and renewable energy potential

Gad, Ulrik Pram

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Ahead of snap elections, Greenland’s independence ambitions could open a window for closer co-operation with the EU

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31/10/2014Ahead of snap elections, Greenland’s independenceambitions could open a window for closer co-operation withthe EUblogs.lse.ac.uk /europpblog/2014/10/31/ahead-of-snap-elections-greenlands-independence-ambitions-could-open-a-window-for-closer-co-operation-with-the-eu/Greenland will hold elections on 28 November following an expenses scandal involving Prime MinisterAleqa Hammond, which led to the collapse of the government. Ulrik Pram Gad writes that whilethere is strong support within Greenland for establishing independence from Denmark, the recentpolitical turmoil has undermined plans to use investment in extractive industries such as mining asthe basis for an independent economy. He argues that the situation could present an opportunity forthe EU to engage in closer bilateral co-operation with the country, particularly given Greenland’snatural resources and renewable energy potential.On 29-30 September, Greenland saw the most dramatic 24 hours in the political life of its youngdemocracy. A few days before the opening of the autumn session of its parliament, the Inatsisartut, the parliamentaryauditing committee issued a press release saying that prime minister Aleqa Hammond, leader of the social-democratic Siumut party, had built up a debt of 106,363 Danish krone (approximately 14,000 euros) by letting thepublic purse pay for her family’s air fares, her hotel minibars, and private use of government reception rooms. Thepublic reaction was made clear during the traditional procession from the tiny cathedral in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk,to the opening of parliament – arguably the most aggressive demonstration in the history of Greenland. Aftercompleting her opening speech, Ms. Hammond survived a vote of no confidence, only to seek and be allowed aleave of absence from her position.Having survived the first day, however, the government coalition spectacularly imploded the following morning whenthree government ministers announced that they had to withdraw from their positions. During the press conference,a fourth minister joined them – and the newly elected chairman of the minor coalition partner Atassut (translated as‘link’ – i.e. the ‘link’ to Denmark) entered the room and added that his party no longer supported the government. Along day of frenzied activity in the hallways of parliament followed, with members of Siumut trying to persuade theleading opposition party, the left-wing separatist Inuit Ataqatigiit, to enter a new coalition – anything to avoid anelection. In the evening, the speaker of the parliament, a Siumut veteran, was convinced by a petition signed by amajority of members of parliament to call a special session in which Kim Kielsen, Minister for the Environment andacting as a substitute for Ms. Hammond, called a general election for 28 November.Thus ended the 18 months of Aleqa Hammond’s rule: a suitably tumultuous ending given the experience of hergovernment. One minor coalition partner, the Inuit Party, had left after a few months, and a former prime ministerand chairman of the Siumut party, Hans Enoksen, left to form a new party, Partii Naleraq. Only two of the permanentdeputy ministers – in principle politically neutral civil servants – are still in their positions. Having campaignedvehemently against the allegedly undemocratic ways in which the former government had conducted its policies onextractive industries, Ms. Hammond’s new majority scrapped a ban on mining uranium without much in the way ofpublic consultation and through a condensed parliamentary procedure.Table: Political parties and polling ahead of the 2014 election in Greenland1/5Note: Polling numbers are from the latest polling in September. Greenland’s elections useproportional representation in multi-member constituencies.For more information on theparties see: Siumut (S); Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA); Demokraatit (D); Atassut (A); Inuit Party (PartiiInuit – PI); Partii Naleraq (PN).Only a small number of (largely unreliable) opinion polls have surveyed the 40,000 strong electorate in Greenland,with the results of the latest poll shown in the Table above. But based on electoral history, Kim Kielsen and Siumut’schances are not as bleak as one might imagine. Since the introduction of party politics in 1979, Siumut has alwayssucceeded in winning a majority or building coalitions. While minor parties have come and gone, and quick fixsolutions to Greenland’s socio-economic problems have periodically attracted attention and votes, individualcandidates have often emerged in one election only to fall flat in the next.However following the 2009 introduction of an enhanced version of self-government within the Danish ‘Community ofthe Realm’, an unlikely coalition of the former-Marxist Inuit Ataqatigiit and neo-liberal Demokraatit (Democrats)ousted Siumut from power for the first time and proved surprisingly stable. Nevertheless, after four years ofpromising ‘nothing but sweat and tears’ to prepare Greenland for independence, Ms. Hammond swept the 2013polls with a more generous approach offering independence ‘within her lifetime’ and both welfare and subsidies forsettlements and small businesses intact. The Figure below shows where each of the parties are located on anideological scale based on their stance on left/right issues and the issue of Greenland’s relationship with Denmark.Figure: Greenland’s party systemParty positionInter-party variationRecent shifts in party position2/53/5Note: The figure shows three charts. In the first chart, each party’s position is shown basedon where their current platform falls on a left/right scale and a scale indicating their stanceon closer association/sovereignty from Denmark. The second chart shows inter-partyvariation (indicated by circles for each party) while the third chart shows the direction inwhich parties have moved in recent history. Figures are from the author’s upcoming book,‘National Identity Politics and Postcolonial Sovereignty Games: Greenland, Denmark, and theEuropean Union’ (Museum Tusculanum Press, 2015).This time around, most parties have new leaders. One of them, Inuit Ataqatigiit’s Sara Olsvig, is most likely to be thecountry’s next prime minister. She holds a Master’s degree and in terms of public appearance offers a stark contrastto her most likely contenders: Mr. Kielsen, who proudly presents his stock of whale, seal and reindeer meat (single-handedly killed) to visiting journalists, and Mr. Enoksen, a former shopkeeper from a small village who consistentlysticks to Greenlandic (never Danish) when speaking in public.Future challenges: mining and Greenland’s relationship with EuropeWhile potential investors in Greenland’s nascent extractive industries might have preferred the policies and stabilityof the 2009-2013 coalition, Inuit Ataqatigiit’s likely return to power may involve yet another reversal of crucialelements in the country’s regulation of the industry. In a global market which is currently reluctant to take on newhigh risk projects – whether these are political risks or pertain to the (literally) uncharted Arctic waters – theimmediate perspectives for developing the sector to be the engine of a self-sufficient Greenlandic economy are lessthan ideal. The most mature project, an iron mine near the capital Nuuk, recently suffered a serious blow as thelicense holder, London Mining, folded due to ebola closing down its operations in West Africa. Meanwhile muchheralded Chinese investments have yet to materialise.Whoever forms the next government, an urgent rethink will be required when it comes to finding new developmentpartners. Indeed, the new leadership might find that old partners are worth returning to. In 1985, Greenland was thefirst territory ever to leave the European Community, following which it took on the status of an associated ‘overseascountry and territory’. In the next two decades, a fisheries agreement formed the central instrument for co-operationbetween Greenland and the EU.4/5Since 2006, however, a general partnership has supplemented fisheries. The partnership agreement, renewedearlier this year, provides for co-operation on both minerals and energy. Outside of some still to be located oildeposits and yet to be developed mineral deposits (of which there is an abundance, from zinc, via rare earthelements to uranium), Greenland also has immense untapped hydroelectric potential. From the EU’s perspective, amore enhanced partnership with Greenland may therefore be worth exploring, given Europe’s twin goals oftransitioning to green energy while freeing itself from dependence on Russian gas.Please read our comments policy before commenting .Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy, norof the London School of Economics. Featured image: Qaqortoq, Greenland, Credit: Greenland Travel (CC-BY-SA-3.0)Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/1wIzsTL _________________________________About the authorUlrik Pram Gad – University of CopenhagenUlrik Pram Gad is a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for Advanced Security Theory at theUniversity of Copenhagen. He recently finished a collaborative project comparing the ‘sovereigntygames’ involved in the EU relations of a series of ‘overseas countries and territories’ plus the Nordicmicro-polities. His current research focuses on Greenlandic postcolonial politics and on thesecuritisation of Muslims in Denmark. 5/5

Ahead of snap elections, Greenland’s independence ambitions could open a window for closer co-operation with the EU

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