With New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s ‘Bridgegate’ scandal now in its third week, Ashley Koning and David Redlawsk take a close look at how Christie’s state and national poll numbers have been affected. Using the latest data from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, they argue that although Christie’s approval rating stands at 53 percent, this needs to be seen in the context of his previously very high ratings in the wake of Superstorm Sandy in late 2012. They write that Christie’s bipartisan appeal has taken a serious hit, as reflected by his far less favorable impression among Democrats, and that his trustworthiness is now at an all-time low

Koning, Ashley

Redlawsk, David

LSE Research Online

blogs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2014/02/03/chris-christie-political-capital-bridgegate/Credit: Gage Skidmore (Creative Commons BY SA)New polls show that Bridgegate has washed away almost all ofChris Christie’s post-Sandy political capital.With New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s ‘Bridgegate’ scandal now in its third week, AshleyKoning and David Redlawsk take a close look at how Christie’s state and national poll numbershave been affected. Using the latest data from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, they argue thatalthough Christie’s approval rating stands at 53 percent, this needs to be seen in the context ofhis previously very high ratings in the wake of Superstorm Sandy in late 2012. They write thatChristie’s bipartisan appeal has taken a serious hit, as reflected by his far less favorableimpression among Democrats, and that his trustworthiness is now at an all-time low.Approval for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, now stands at 53%– a rating most politiciansthese days would envy, including President Obama. Given that a majority of New Jerseyans stillsupport Christie, he may seem relatively immune to the scandals involving his administration thathave unfolded this past month. But a look beyond this single data point to longer-term trends tellsa different story. As new numbers continue to arrive in week three of the George WashingtonBridge scandal, both state and national polls are drawing the same conclusions: Christie’s ratings– after sixteen months of unprecedented highs post-Superstorm Sandy – have droppedprecipitously in the wake of Bridgegate.Why the plunge? Perhaps it is that people both in New Jersey and across the nation do not believe Christie’sclaims about the scandal. Fewer than half of U.S. adults say Christie is mostly telling the truth, and only a thirdbelieve his assertion that he had no knowledge of his aide’s involvement in the scandal. New Jerseyans arelikewise generally skeptical, with more than half saying it is at least somewhat unlikely that these aides actedwithout his knowledge; a majority does not believe the explanation Christie gave at his January 9 pressconference. (A comparison in PDF format of all statewide and national post-Bridgegate polling on Christie’sratings and involvement with Bridgegate can be found here.)Now that a few weeks havepassed since the initialrevelations, polling makes clearthe risk to Christie’s present andfuture. Post-Bridgegate,Christie’s New Jersey voters’ jobapproval is well below the 66 to73 percent support he basked infor the sixteen months sinceSuperstorm Sandy devastatedthe state, with a 15-points dropsince November. Fewer than halfof New Jersey voters now giveChristie’s job performance an A orB – down 16 points – and 29percent assign either a D or F, up11 points since his re-election.And in a clear turnaround, bothnational and statewide polls showChristie trailing Hillary Clinton ina 2016 match-up driven mostly by a dramatic shift among independents.Christie’s overall favorability rating, as shown in Figure 1 below, has suffered even more among voters in NewJersey – now practically split at 46 percent favorable to 43 percent unfavorable, down from 65 percent favorablejust before his landslide re-election. After maintaining a favorable rating in the high 60s since Sandy, this isChristie’s lowest point in the past two years. National polls also show a spike in Christie’s unfavorable, which hasdoubled from a year ago, now at 34 percent to 38  percent favorable.Figure 1 – Favorable and unfavorable ratings for Governor Chris ChristieAbove all, Christie has suffered most in the two areas that have been critical to his potential presidential image:his perceived bipartisanship and his personality. Bridgegate has all but obliterated the bipartisan good will Christiebuilt up after Sandy, and has reopened the sharp partisan divisions that previously existed, driving away most ofthe Democratic voters who supported Christie’s re-election. It has also dampened the overwhelming supportChristie was receiving from independents. Even some Republicans have been taken aback.For example, in November, 45 percent of registered Democrats in New Jersey had a favorable impression ofChristie. In the aftermath of the scandal just 19 percent now feel that way . Christie’s job performance rating isdown 22 points among Democrats, to 29 percent approval. Republicans overall are still very positive, whileindependents are also more positive than negative, but both show noticeable declines as well. On the nationalstage, Christie has taken a somewhat smaller hit in his favorable numbers but the number of Democrats withunfavorable impressions has more than doubled from what it was a year ago.Reinforcing this point, recent state and national polls show a clear partisanship factor in beliefs about the scandal.In New Jersey, Republicans mostly support Christie: two-thirds think he was likely unaware of what his staff wasdoing, and 80 percent accept his explanation, at least in part. But only a quarter of Democrats think Christie wasunaware of his aides’ actions; more than half find it very unlikely he was out of the loop. Moreover, 62 percent ofthe state’s Democrats completely discount Christie’s explanation for what happened. National polls echo thisdivide: Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats to believe Christie is telling the truth  and that he hadno knowledge of his staff’s actions.Above all, the most significant damage done by Bridgegate is to Christie’s carefully developed image. Christie hasalways evoked strong emotionally charged reactions in both good times and bad due to his no-nonsense, toughguy persona. Christie’s personality propelled him to political stardom in the wake of Sandy, and his personality maynow be his undoing.Christie’s biggest personality challenge has always been to stay on the right side of the line between “strongleader” and “bully.” A number of public events in which the governor responded strongly to questioners led many tosee him more as a bully . But post-Sandy, voters seemed to prefer his tough guy approach.To look at this, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll has been asking New Jerseyans about a wide range of traits andemotions that might apply to Christie since he first took office in 2010. This allows us to say with some authoritythat the bridge scandal has had a clear impact on key perceptions of the governor. As Figure 2 shows, “Bully” isnow at an all-time high: 43 percent say the word describes Christie very well, up 9 points from November. Another21 percent feel bully fits Christie “somewhat well.” New Jersey voters are also more inclined today to say Christieis “stubborn,” “arrogant,” and “self-centered” than they have been in previous polling.Figure 2 - Polling on Governor Chris Christie’s perceived negative traitsPerhaps even more important than Christie’s bully image is the fact that the events of the last few weeks havetaken a distinct toll on New Jersey voters’ trust. While voters tend to not trust politicians, Christie has actuallyavoided being painted with that brush, as post-Sandy about 45 percent said “trustworthy” fit the governor verywell, as Figure 3 illustrates. But that’s no longer the case. Use of “trustworthy” as a trait description is at an all-timelow at just 27 percent saying the term applies very well, down 16 points. Other positive trait words also show cleardeclines. In particular, both “strong leader” and “fair” recorded double-digit declines from October.Figure 3 – Polling on Governor Chris Christie’s perceived positive traitsNot surprisingly, Bridgegate has also affected the emotional reactions that New Jersey voters report when theythink or read about Christie. Feeling pride in and enthusiasm about the governor, after reaching high points afterSandy hit, are down to just 35 percent of voters. Instead, voters are angrier (at 40 percent, up 12 points) and moreworried (41 percent, up 10 points) when they think about Christie – edging back to levels not seen since Christiefirst took office.Figure 4 – Emotional reactions of New Jersey voters on thinking or reading about Governor ChristieWhile partisan perceptions and likability are constantly in flux for politicians, the negative turn Christie’s ratingshave taken is particularly consequential for him. His image as a bipartisan no-nonsense get-it-done guy, and hisstraightforward style of leadership were the hallmarks of his re-election campaign and undoubtedly were expectedto be the foundation upon which his rumored presidential run was to be built. While it is too early to know howmuch Bridgegate and other allegations in its wake will affect Christie’s ability to run for president in 2016, thescandal has significantly damaged these two key assets, washing away the post-Sandy political capital that drovehim to national stardom. Whether Christie is telling the truth or not – and whether he had any part in thesescandals – the allegations have already damaged him where it hurts him the most. Will the damage persist? Onlytime – and the polls – will tell.Please read our comments policy before commenting .Note:  This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USApp– American Politics and Policy, norof the London School of Economics. Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/LDUlwK_________________________________________About the authors  Ashley Koning – Rutgers UniversityAshley Koning is currently a PhD candidate in the political science department at RutgersUniversity, with concentrations in American politics, women and politics, and methodology.  She isthe head graduate assistant to the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and Manager of theRutgers-Eagleton Poll.  Her research interests include public opinion, political psychology, massbehaviour, political communications, and gender and politics.David Redlawsk – Rutgers UniversityDavid P. Redlawsk is director, Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, and Professor of Political Science atRutgers University His research focuses on campaigns, elections, the role of information in voter decision makingand on emotional responses to campaign information. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 2014 LSE USAPP

New polls show that Bridgegate has washed away almost all of Chris Christie’s post-Sandy political capital

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