Russia’s participation in the athletics events at the 2016 Olympic games remains under threat following evidence of doping by Russian athletes in previous competitions. Joseph E. Uscinski writes on what the scandal says about the nature of political conspiracies

Uscinski, Joseph E.

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6/7/2016What does Russia’s doping scandal tell us about the nature ofpolitical conspiracies?blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/07/russia-doping-political-conspiracies/Russia’s participation in the athletics events at the 2016 Olympic games remains under threatfollowing evidence of doping by Russian athletes in previous competitions. Joseph E. Uscinskiwrites on what the scandal says about the nature of political conspiracies. It has been widely reported that the Russian Olympic team may have dominated the 2014 SochiWinter Olympics by using cocktails containing steroids and human growth hormones. Cocktailsappears to be the appropriate term, since the mixtures were served with Chivas whiskey for men and Martinivermouth for women. This comes only years after Russian athletes were caught ‘doping’ by international authoritiesin the 2012 London Olympic Games, and subsequently banned from the upcoming 2016 Rio De Janiero games.While the investigation into these new doping allegations is only getting underway, the evidence unearthed so far isshocking. The person in charge of the doping, Dr Grigory Rodchenkov, recently escaped Russia to the UnitedStates to tell his story. His account contains every element of a Hollywood conspiracy thriller, and then some.Russian President Vladimir Putin at the gala ice show celebrating the Sochi Olympic Gamesone year on. Credits: kremlin.ruAs the New York Times describes it, Dr Rodchenkov worked in a dark-of-night operation in a shadowy laboratory litby a single lamp, in which he and his colleagues would pass urine samples through a hole in the wall. Two of hiscolleagues in Russia, both attached to the scandal, died unexpectedly in February. While many of his assertionshave yet to be independently veriﬁed, Dr Rodchenkov was recently identiﬁed by the World Anti-Doping Agency as1/3part of an extensive doping programme and was forced to resign his post.The scheme has been described as one of the most “successful doping ploys in sports history,” but the problem withsuch a characterisation is that the programme has turned out to be completely unsuccessful. The plot has beenuncovered, one confession has already been made, and there will likely be serious consequences for the guiltyathletes and those that aided them (two people are already dead, possibly as part of the cover-up). With almostdaily coverage in the New York Times, there is nothing successful about it.Russian doping and conspiracy theoriesThat these Russian doping schemes continue to be uncovered should give pause to those who think that suchconspiracies take place all the time, and can go on indeﬁnitely without detection. Such a viewpoint can give rise tobelief in conspiracy theories, which are unsubstantiated accusatory claims of conspiracy.That conspiracies are so often exposed seems to be used by many conspiracy theorists – and philosophers for thatmatter – to suggest that belief in their as-of-yet undetected conspiracies are justiﬁed. And the foiling of realconspiracies can lead people to be more suspicious, distrustful, and willing to believe in conspiracy theories.However, the exposure of conspiracies should lead to the opposite eﬀect: philosophers, conspiracy theorists, andyour average man on the street should not fall into believing in unsubstantiated claims, but rather take some comfortthat conspiracies tend to be exposed and fail.There are good reasons for conspiracies to fail, and recent work in mathematics by David Grimes provides anindication of just how quickly they will do so. For conspiracies to be successful, they must remain secret, andanything worth conspiring for is also equally worth exposing. Conspiracies can be exposed by those pulling it oﬀ,and also by those who are outside the conspiracy and charged with preventing malfeasance.The numbers matter. Each conspirator is a potential liability, as they can “spill the beans.” Each additionalconspirator also provides an additional person who can potentially be caught and bring down the whole operation.Grimes’ work, which is based upon conspiracies in history that have failed, suggests that conspiracies are doomedto fail over the course of decades, and large conspiracy theories sooner than that.For example, take Richard Nixon’s many unconstitutional activities while president, summarised with the term“Watergate.” Nixon was eventually run out of oﬃce because several of his co-conspirators were arrested during thebreak-in at the Watergate Hotel. Then came the investigations, several confessions, a few prison sentences, andone unprecedented resignation.The number of people involved in Nixon’s illegal activities and subsequent cover-ups varies depending on how wedeﬁne them, but it was not that many people when compared to the vast number of people that would be needed tofake global warming, for example. Grimes’ research indicates that a scheme to fake scientiﬁc ﬁndings – like climatedata – over a long period of time would require thousands of independent researchers and oﬃcials to be in on it, andto never “whistle-blow.” This is unlikely given the stakes involved. Secrets are seemingly hard to keep even in smallnumbers; many a workplace romance has ﬂoundered on this rock.Conspiracy theories that posit the terrorist attacks of 9/11 were orchestrated by the US government usually requirethe participation of hundreds of individuals – perhaps to set explosives, or to direct the airplanes. And the circle ofconspirators increases as media and government oﬃcials are later needed to help cover up the operation. But even15 years later, there are no leaks, admissions, or smoking guns.The JFK assassination, ﬁfty-three years later, is still plagued by conspiracy theories, and a majority of Americansremain convinced the president’s murder was the result of a larger conspiracy. Some theories, like the one detailedby Oliver Stone in his movie JFK involve hundreds if not thousands of actors. It is unlikely that this number of peoplecould all keep a secret this long given the immense value of the information they had.2/3Other conspiracy theories posit even longer timeframes. Illuminati theories suggest that this secret groups has beenpulling strings for centuries. Unfortunately, no one has been able to catch one of them, and not a single Illuminati hascopped to their involvement. The Reptilian Elite have supposedly been ruling the planet for millennia, yet we can’tseem to ﬁnd anyone sane who has seen one.In the end, doping athletes is a low stakes scheme compared to the life and death stakes in other conspiracies. But,the athletes and the oﬀending nations seem to keep getting caught. It could tell us that civilisation has developed thetools that can ferret out such malfeasance. It could also tell us that people are not that good at pulling oﬀconspiracies. We will never live in a world where conspiracies are not attempted: people with bad intentions willalways try to get away with something. We should always be vigilant. But, the fact that bad people keep gettingcaught should tell us something both about the strength of our institutions, and about the limitations of supposedconspirators.Please read our comments policy before commenting .Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy, norof the London School of Economics.Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/1Y4lSZe _________________________________About the authorJoseph E. Uscinski – University of MiamiJoseph E. Uscinski is Associate Professor of Political Science at the College of Arts & Sciences,University of Miami, and author of American Conspiracy Theories (Oxford University Press, 2014). 3/3

What does Russia’s doping scandal tell us about the nature of political conspiracies?

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