Last week’s election of a Conservative majority government paves the way for a referendum on Britain’s future in the European Union. Anthony Salamone outlines some of the challenges ahead for the upcoming renegotiation and referendum

Salamone, Anthony

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5/15/2015Britain’s EU membership will now be the subject of severalyears of negotiation and debateblogs.lse.ac.uk /politicsandpolicy/britains-eu-membership-will-now-be-the-subject-of-several-years-of-negotiation-and-debate/Last week’s election of a Conservative majority government paves the way for a referendum on Britain’sfuture in the European Union. Anthony Salamone outlines some of the challenges ahead for theupcoming renegotiation and referendum.In a surprise to nearly everyone, the Conservatives have won the UK’s 2015 general election with a(small) overall majority. Following his audience with the Queen after the election, David Cameronreiterated his commitment to holding an in/out referendum on Britain’s EU membership.  It seemstherefore that we can now expect several years of negotiation, campaigning and debate on the UK’sfuture in the EU.RenegotiationCentral to the prime minister’s pledge is the promised renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership in the Union.He has stated previously that he wants to be able to recommend a vote to stay in the EU. However, to date we’vehad only hints of what the government hopes to achieve from a renegotiation.Opting the UK out of the aim of ‘ever closer union’ and increasing the length of transitional controls for new memberstates (such as temporarily limiting free movement with those states) have come up as possible demands. We’llneed the details of what the prime minister aims to accomplish from these negotiations in order to judge whetherthey are a success. The absence of clarity of course brings with it greater room for manoeuvre should talks with EUpartners prove more difficult than hoped.ReferendumThe proposed timeline is as yet unclear, but negotiations would have to start soon. It is now mid-2015 and the primeminister has pledged that the referendum will take place by the end of 2017, leaving at most two and a half years tosuccessfully complete a renegotiation and hold a campaign and vote. David Cameron might also hold thereferendum early to capitalise on his electoral success and to head off any demands from within his party, furtherlimiting the window to negotiate with other member states and the EU institutions.The specific details of the referendum will also have to be decided. An EU referendum bill will need to go throughparliament and, while the PM has a thin majority in the Commons, he has no majority in the Lords, potentiallymaking agreement on the bill more difficult. Parliamentary process aside, this EU plebiscite will be only the thirdnationwide referendum to take place in the UK (the others being the EC membership referendum in 1975 and theAlternative Vote referendum in 2011).The Scotland independence referendum can undoubtedly provide insights into the mechanics of holding such avote. However, in some key respects, an EU referendum will be completely different. In the Scotland debate, manyorganisations and individuals remained neutral on the vote – this would not be the case here.  The vast majority ofthe political establishment, the business community and civil society is very likely to come out strongly in support ofcontinued EU membership. In this sense, the official landscape will be very lopsided. At the same time, UK publicopinion on the EU is mixed, but it’s also consistently higher under the hypothetical that the government is successfulin its renegotiation (a seemingly rare moment of trust in political leaders).If Britain votes to leave1/3Should the UK electorate choose to leave the EU, a process of negotiation will have to begin with the EU institutionson behalf of the remaining member states to agree Britain’s future relationship with the rest of the EU. The EUtreaties (Article 50 TEU) now set out a procedure for a member state to withdraw from the Union, giving some clarityin this respect. Negotiations can last up to two years and must be approved by a qualified majority of EU membersand by the European parliament. Unless talks are extended, after time elapses the UK would leave automatically,even if no deal is reached.A plethora of matters would have to be discussed, including the UK’s future participation in the single market, whichof course incorporates the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. In the current political context, freemovement of persons would likely be a particularly challenging issue, affecting the rights both of EU citizens in theUK and of UK citizens in the EU. Britain’s role in every other EU programme, such as Erasmus, would all need to beagreed.Such negotiations would be time-consuming, difficult and costly and require a great deal of expertise.  Interestingly,the UK is scheduled to hold the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU during the second half of 2017. Britainmay find itself at the same time chairing part of an organisation it is debating or has decided to leave.In these circumstances, the question arises of whether a second referendum would be held to approve the UK’s newrelationship with the EU. Alternatively, a vote might be held in parliament to endorse the negotiated terms for theUK’s EU exit and whatever relationship might replace it. A second referendum would provide an op portunity for theelectorate to confirm their support for the proposed alternative to membership.If Britain votes to stayIf UK voters decide to stay in the EU, Britain’s membership would apparently continue much as before . Anyprovisions secured as part of the renegotiation would presumably take effect, giving Britain additional opt-outs orother special arrangements or indeed changing how the EU itself works.A renegotiation could range from modest to radical , depending on the appetite of the rest of the EU to compromise.If the result falls short of dramatic change, it is unlikely to be from a lack of desire on the part of the UK government.It would be extremely ambitious to expect full treaty change under the above timescale. A more likely scenario is anagreement on principles and a commitment to include them in future treaty reform where necessary (some pointsmight be achievable within the current treaties).Britain is not unused to confrontation on Europe. Nevertheless, this chapter in its relationship with the EU couldprove particularly high stakes. Possible outcomes include a more sustainable EU membership, a more distancedrelationship with the EU or a situation not dissimilar to the status quo. The EU referendum result could haveconstitutional implications as well, at a time when the UK’s constitutional future is the subject of ongoing debate.The shape of Britain’s future relationship with the EU will have a profound impact on its economy and its place in theworld. The consequences of this debate will be numerous, and many will only become apparent over time.Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the British Politics and Policy blog, nor of theLondon School of Economics. Please read our comments policy before posting. About the Author2/3Anthony Salamone is PhD Candidate in Politics at the University of Edinburgh. His researchfocuses on the politics of Britain’s EU membership. He tweets @AMSalamone. 3/3

Britain’s EU membership will now be the subject of several years of negotiation and debate

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