Looking at how candidates handle issues and their leadership capability can be just as effective at predicting presidential races as the strength of the economy

Abstract

With every election come new and different models of forecasting the results. With presidential elections, most of these models tend to rely heavily on the state of the economy for their predictions. While these models are relatively successful, they do nothing to aid decision-making of parties, candidates, and voters. Andreas Graefe explains the Issues and Leaders model, which bases its predictions on how candidates are expected to handle issues and their perceived strength as leaders. He argues that not only is the model effective, but it provides valuable feedback for campaigns and voters