On 24 November, leaders from the EU's member states and the six Eastern partner countries will gather in Brussels for the 2017 Eastern Partnership summit. Max Fras previews the summit and assesses what the future might hold for the Eastern Partnership given the delicate situation between the EU and some of its Eastern neighbours

Fras, Max

LSE Research Online

Weak	but	stable:	The	future	of	the	EU’s	EasternPartnership	ahead	of	the	2017	summitOn	24	November,	leaders	from	the	EU’s	member	states	and	the	six	Eastern	partner	countries	willgather	in	Brussels	for	the	2017	Eastern	Partnership	summit.	Max	Fras	previews	the	summit	andassesses	what	the	future	might	hold	for	the	Eastern	Partnership	given	the	delicate	situation	betweenthe	EU	and	some	of	its	Eastern	neighbours.The	upcoming	Eastern	Partnership	(EaP)	summit	in	Brussels	on	24	November	will	mark	another	twoyears	of	uneasy	relations	between	the	EU	and	its	Eastern	neighbours.	Whilst	the	most	EU-mindedstates	(Georgia,	Moldova	and	Ukraine)	have	reached	the	most	important	milestones	(association	agreements	andvisa	liberalisation),	the	outer	circle	(Armenia,	Azerbaijan	and	Belarus)	seems	set	to	stabilise	its	weak	relationshipwith	the	bloc	through	other	types	of	agreements.Despite	the	overall	weak	character	of	mutual	relations,	the	prospects	for	EU-EaP	co-operation	look	stable	withreasons	for	cautious	optimism.	On	the	other	hand,	as	both	internal	EU	pressures	and	external	challengesemerge,	the	initiative	needs	to	adapt	in	order	to	regain	momentum.The	AA	ClubThe	three	EaP	countries	most	eager	to	strengthen	ties	with	the	EU	concluded	their	association	agreements	in2014	(all	have	now	entered	into	force).	For	Georgia	and	Moldova,	this	was	achieved	with	relative	ease.	TheUkrainian	path	to	association	was	not	without	controversy,	but	since	the	agreement’s	signing	the	country	has	kepta	steady	pro-European	course	in	its	foreign	policy.	On	top	of	the	association	agreements,	but	through	anindependent	process,	all	three	countries	now	benefit	from	visa-free	access	to	the	EU.It	should	be	noted	that	all	three	visa	liberalisation	processes	took	longer	than	anticipated	and	were	accompaniedby	alarmist	forecasts	of	mass	migration	and	a	potential	‘crime	wave’	from	the	East.	Since	entering	force,	however,there	has	been	remarkably	little	media	coverage	in	the	EU.	Indeed,	it	is	questionable	whether	many	EU	citizens(beyond	countries	neighbouring	the	EaP	region)	are	aware	of	the	existence	of	visa-free	regimes	with	Georgia,Moldova	and	Ukraine.Eastern	Partnership	Youth	Forum,	Warsaw,	June	2017,	Credit:	Max	FrasLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Weak but stable: The future of the EU’s Eastern Partnership ahead of the 2017 summit Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-11-17Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/11/17/eastern-partnership-summit-2017-weak-but-stable/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Unfortunately	for	both	the	AA	Club	and	the	EU,	there	are	no	strategic	landmarks	for	these	states	in	theforeseeable	future.	A	recent	study	on	the	prospects	for	Western	Balkan	EU	candidate	countries	reveals	that	mostof	them,	despite	a	markedly	closer	relationship	with	the	EU,	will	not	be	in	a	position	to	accede	to	the	bloc	before2050.	This	means	that	the	AA	Club	faces	years	of	painstaking	reform	and	incremental	integration	using	theinstruments	already	at	hand.	Rapid	convergence	or	‘big	bang’	expansion	similar	to	2004	is	extremely	unlikely.The	outer	circleFor	the	outer	circle,	including	Armenia,	Azerbaijan	and	Belarus,	relations	with	the	EU	have	been	patchy	at	best,but	there	are	reasons	for	cautious	optimism.	After	Armenia’s	sudden	withdrawal	from	EU	association	agreementnegotiations	in	2013,	following	its	decision	to	join	the	Eurasian	Union,	there	was	little	hope	for	any	improvement,and	yet	since	2015	the	EU	and	Armenian	government	have	managed	to	put	together	a	new	Comprehensive	andEnhanced	Partnership	Agreement	(CEPA),	the	draft	of	which	has	recently	been	released,	suggesting	that	theparties	expect	to	sign	it	in	the	near	future.Relations	with	Azerbaijan	are	also	likely	to	improve	a	notch.	According	to	sources	at	the	EEAS	and	EuropeanCommission,	Azerbaijan	has	been	making	more	positive	noises	lately	about	the	future	of	the	Partnership	with	aview	to	increasing	its	involvement	in	some	areas,	notably	with	respect	to	economic	and	development	co-operation–	a	clear	echo	of	the	country’s	weakening	local	currency,	decreasing	oil	and	gas	revenues	and	overall	bleakeconomic	prospects.Last	but	not	least,	in	the	context	of	the	renewed	European	Neighbourhood	Policy,	the	EU	has	doubled	itspackage	of	bilateral	assistance	to	Belarus	to	support	private	sector	development	and	help	strengthen	institutionsin	2016.	Following	President	Tusk’s	surprise	invitation	to	President	Lukashenko	for	the	2017	summit,	rumours	ofhis	participation	have	neither	been	confirmed	nor	denied	by	Minsk.	Whatever	the	final	decision	may	be,	Belarus	islikely	to	continue	its	participation	in	the	EaP	in	the	near	future.The	summitAlthough	the	general	expectations	for	the	summit	are	modest,	some	signs	indicate	that	the	initiative’s	weak	yetstable	status	is	about	to	be	confirmed.	The	final	declaration	is	likely	to	be	a	rather	bland	mixture	of	generalreassurances	of	mutual	respect	and	EU	support	for	a	limited	number	of	areas	of	reform.	Due	to	politicalopposition	in	EU	capitals	and	a	lack	of	funding,	especially	with	‘budgetary	Brexit’	looming	post-2020,	none	of	theambitious	ideas	tabled	by	the	European	Parliament	(including	a	trust	fund	and	an	EaP+	model	for	most	advancedmembers)	have	been	considered	by	EU	leaders.The	most	heated	discussions	between	EU	and	EaP	diplomats	concern	Kyiv’s	continued	insistence	on	the	EUacknowledging	its	European	aspirations,	a	pledge	that	does	not	warm	hearts	in	EU	capitals.	Most	recent	reportsfrom	Brussels	suggest	that	it	is	most	likely	to	become	a	unilateral	declaration	by	the	Ukrainian	government.On	the	other	side	of	the	Black	Sea,	Yerevan	and	Baku	continue	to	clash	over	the	inclusion	of	a	reference	to	theterritorial	integrity	of	all	EaP	countries	–	Baku	has	sought	to	make	the	inclusion	of	such	wording	a	red	line	for	itsparticipation	in	all	multilateral	forums.	In	a	sign	of	an	apparent	softening	in	Baku’s	principled	stance,	thedeclaration	may	skip	the	clause	altogether.In	the	absence	of	a	more	ambitious	agenda,	youth	issues	and	education	are	likely	to	gain	more	prominence.	TheEU	is	about	to	launch	a	new	Youth	Package	for	EU-EaP	youth	co-operation,	with	a	potential	promise	to	go	as	faras	doubling	its	funding	for	cross-border	youth	mobility,	volunteering	and	training	as	well	as	other	minor	initiativessuch	as	the	European	School.Last	but	not	least,	the	declaration	will	include	a	reference	to	the	next	summit	taking	place	in	2019,	a	modest	yetimportant	improvement	on	earlier	speculation	on	the	possible	winding	up	of	the	whole	EaP	initiative.The	way	forwardLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Weak but stable: The future of the EU’s Eastern Partnership ahead of the 2017 summit Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-11-17Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/11/17/eastern-partnership-summit-2017-weak-but-stable/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/For	the	partnership	to	regain	momentum,	EU	political	actors	need	to	adapt	to	the	changing	environment.	First,	theEU’s	member	states,	notably	those	most	eager	to	see	the	EaP	continue,	will	need	to	come	together	and	jointlypush	for	a	more	ambitious	reform	agenda,	especially	in	Moldova	and	Ukraine	–	this	will	require	a	significantchange	in	Poland’s	increasingly	anti-Ukrainian	rhetoric	and	the	rebuilding	of	links	between	the	Visegrád	four	andtheir	Baltic	and	Scandinavian	allies	(the	recent	joint	op-ed	by	Poland’s	Minister	of	Foreign	Affairs,	WitoldWaszczykowski,	and	Sweden’s	Margot	Wallström	is	a	good	sign).Second,	EU	governments	should	focus	on	highlighting	and	strengthening	the	benefits	of	internal	reform	in	all	EaPmember	states	instead	of	moving	goalposts	and	offering	only	token	rewards	and	declarations.	The	EuropeanCommission	should	also	stay	the	course	in	implementing	the	EaP’s	technical	assistance	and	development	co-operation,	continuing	to	identify	tangible	deliverables	and	outcomes	for	local	populations	in	the	EaP.Finally,	to	limit	Brexit-related	damage	to	the	EaP	and	its	own	foreign	policy	in	Eastern	Europe,	the	Britishgovernment	should	seek	ways	of	continued	co-operation	with	EU	member	states	and	EU	institutions	in	the	EaP,especially	in	areas	where	its	expertise	is	most	valued	such	as	legal	and	economic	reform	and	the	increasinglyimportant	strategic	communications	field	that	includes	countering	Russian	propaganda	efforts,	where	sustainableimpact	can	only	be	achieved	through	international	co-operation.	Signalling	continued	willingness	to	work	withsuch	programmes	would	be	a	low-cost	way	to	build	goodwill	with	a	number	of	EU	member	states	(especiallythose	keen	on	the	Eastern	Partnership)	and	reassure	EaP	countries	of	the	UK’s	continued	engagement.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy,nor	of	the	London	School	of	Economics._________________________________About	the	authorMax	Fras	–	LSEMax	Fras	is	a	Visiting	Fellow	at	LSEE	–	Research	on	South	Eastern	Europe.	He	tweets	@maxfrasLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Weak but stable: The future of the EU’s Eastern Partnership ahead of the 2017 summit Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2017-11-17Permalink: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/11/17/eastern-partnership-summit-2017-weak-but-stable/Blog homepage: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Weak but stable: the future of the EU's Eastern Partnership ahead of the 2017 summit

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