While the migration crisis has eased in other EU countries such as Greece, Italy’s coastline remains an entrance point for irregular migration. Roland Benedikter and Ireneusz Pawel Karolewski track Italy’s attempts to deal with the problem. They argue that the absence of solidarity from the rest of the EU is fostering Euroscepticism and that it would be in the EU’s long-term interest to provide the country with greater support

Benedikter, Roland

Karolewski, Ireneusz Pawel

LSE Research Online

07/02/2017Italy’s migration crisis is a clear threat to European unityblogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/02/07/italy-migration-crisis-clear-threat-eu-unity/While the migration crisis has eased in other EU countries such as Greece, Italy’s coastlineremains an entrance point for irregular migration. Roland Benedikter and Ireneusz PawelKarolewski track Italy’s attempts to deal with the problem. They argue that the absence of solidarityfrom the rest of the EU is fostering Euroscepticism and that it would be in the EU’s long-terminterest to provide the country with greater support.Migrants arriving on the Island of Lampedusa, Italy. Credits:  Sara Prestianni / NoborderNetwork (CC BY 2.0)One of the biggest challenges for Italy’s new prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni, in charge since 12 December, is,according to his own statements, the ongoing Mediterranean refugee and migration crisis. While most routes toEurope were closed in the meantime, among them the Balkan route and the Greek border with Turkey, thecoastlines of Italy, which stretch more than 7,600 km (4,720 miles) and are difficult to control for the European borderagency FRONTEX, remain an entrance for human trafficking. In addition, they are the focus of the European Union’srescue programmes which include the recovery of migrants in front of the Libyan coast and their escort to Italianislands, mainly Lampedusa and Sicily.1/5Accordingly, Gentiloni, former minister of foreign affairs and well acquainted with the problem, has announced hisintention to prioritise the issue. This is in order to safeguard not only Italy’s political and social landscape, which hisown governing majority centred around the Democratic Party (PD) believe is being affected by uncontrolledimmigration in unpredictable ways, but also Europe’s unity, which could be affected by the rise of anti-immigrationparties. Such parties usually – and in their majority – are nationalist and thus hold anti-European stances.Italy and the refugee crisis: An unsolved problem since 2010“The EU has failed to recognise the problem at hand, since its discourse has primarily focused on Merkel’s“open doors policy” and largely ignored problematic developments in Italy’s citizenry.”Long before the Italian reform and constitutional referendum of 4 December 2016, then Italian Prime Minister MatteoRenzi had vowed to make the refugee crisis the key issue on Europe’s agenda. He made repeated attempts to thisend from the start of 2015, the year when the migration crisis first peaked. The majority of his initiatives during talksat European Union summits, such as the introduction of joint refugee bonds in the EU, failed mainly because ofGermany’s opposition. Berlin tends to react allergically to every term resembling “eurobonds”, suggesting theextension of German liability for public deficits of other EU countries. The pivotal role of Italy in the migration crisisdid not translate into leverage of its national deficit within the EU.At the same time, the relevance of Italy for the EU has steadily grown since the “Arab spring” starting in December2010 and in particular since 2012, as various waves of refugees from the MENA region reached the coasts of Italyafter multiple outbursts of civil wars, rebellions and humanitarian catastrophes. The EU has failed to recognise theproblem at hand, since the EU discourse has primarily focused on German chancellor’s Angela Merkel’s “opendoors policy” and largely ignored problematic developments in Italy’s citizenry. Numerous reports of increasingrefugee riots in southern Italy after the closing of the Balkan migration route in the beginning of 2016 and themiserable failure to relocate refugees, with only 560 people instead of the originally declared 39,600 transferred toother EU nations by autumn 2016, should have motivated the EU to act, but they did not.This dire situation pressured Renzi to search for sustainable structural solutions for Italy with MENA countriesresembling the EU agreement with Turkey, with or, if necessary, without the EU. Although he explicitly called for calmand rejected the “invasion of refugees” discourse, emphasising that most of the refugees would be eventuallyredistributed across the EU, many Italians remained sceptical about the EU’s solidarity.In 2016, reports of new record refugee waves were not encouraging, suggesting to many voters that the EU wasunable to solve the emergency, and did not understand the Italian perception of it. FRONTEX announced that atleast 1 million people would wait in northern Africa to cross over to Italy in 2017 and 2018. Among them were at least100,000-200,000 people from sub-Saharan Africa, waiting in Libya for their entry into Italy – most of them economicmigrants. In September 2016, the Austrian chancellor Christian Kern announced that in Egypt alone, more than 5million people were getting ready to emigrate to Europe – most of them through Italy.Already in May, June and August 2016, thousands of migrants had once again reached the coasts of Italy, despitethe EU’s announcement aimed at stopping uncontrolled migration. Waves of several thousand people per weekcontinued across almost the entire year of 2016. Due to lack of space in other reception areas, many of the refugeeswere brought to Sicily, Rome and Milan in early summer 2016. The general overcrowding of refugees in Italyensured that even well-prepared regions like the autonomous province of Bolzano at the Austrian border reachedtheir limits. In addition, the refusal of other European countries, in particular Germany, to set refugee limits, as wellas dogmatic clinging to the EU’s Dublin agreements, which stipulate that the country where refugees arrive isresponsible for them, exacerbated the problem in Italy even more.Renzi undertook several concrete diplomatic and juridical initiatives to tackle the refugee crisis at the EU level. InMarch 2016, he suggested that apart from new investments into FRONTEX and border controls, an EU “AfricaFund” should be established in order to promote infrastructure and investment projects across the continent, thus2/5improving socioeconomic development to incentivise people to stay. The “Africa Fund” and its projects were to besupported by the European Investment Bank (EBI) and funded by the so-called European joint refugee bonds. Inaddition, according to Renzi, the EU should sign refugee pacts with other countries in the MENA region, modelled onthe EU-Turkey agreement.“Berlin did not take the situation seriously enough and framed the refugee crisis in Italy as a ploy by Renzito increase Italian spending.”Renzi’s proposal, in particular its financial aspects, were rejected by the German government in April 2016. As thespokesman of the German government, Steffen Seibert stated that “the German Federal Government sees no basisfor collective refugee debts financed by the member countries”. Likewise, the German federal government, partlycontradicting positive responses such as from Horst Seehofer, the premier of the German federal state of Bavaria,rejected Renzi’s further initiative to allow more African states to more easily access international finance marketsthrough “EU-Africa-bonds”.The German government suspected that the real goal of Renzi’s initiatives was to find a loophole in the EU’srulebook to increase Italy’s government spending, something Renzi had consistently tried to do in order to overcomeEU austerity policies which he had rejected from the start of his tenure. Overall, Berlin did not take the situationseriously enough and framed the refugee crisis in Italy as a ploy by Renzi to increase Italian spending.Consequences for Italy’s position in the EUAside from its effect on domestic politics within Italy, the refugee and migration crisis has also changed the politicalbalance across the EU and Italy’s place within it. In October 2016, the minister for economy and finance Pier CarloPadoan estimated that Italy will have to spend at least 3.8bn euros on refugees and migrants in 2017 alone, whichaccording to Padoan was the most conservative estimate under “stable circumstances”. Any increase in the numberof refugees and ongoing EU passivity would cost Italy at least around 4.2bn euros. He warned that this could lead tothe breach of EU fiscal rules, as Italy’s 2017 deficit would rise to 3.2 per cent.As Renzi brought the budget deficit back into the mix, arguing that the refugee and migration crisis, as anasymmetrical external shock, should also lead to asymmetrical treatment of the countries with the highest financialburden, Berlin sounded the alarm. Again, Renzi’s announcements were interpreted by Angela Merkel’s governmentas an attempt to manipulate the refugee crisis in order to get away with a higher deficit.But other EU countries were also less than sympathetic with Italy’s plight. In October 2016, a clash betweenHungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, and Renzi occurred. The Hungarian PM blamed Italy for not fulfilling its dutyto secure the borders of the Schengen area. In response, Gentiloni, who was then Italian foreign minister, reactedsharply, arguing that “with its building walls at the border and an invalid referendum on refugee quotas, Hungaryviolated the EU rules and should not teach Italy lessons.”In turn, the Hungarian foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, countered that “Italy is ignoring its obligations. If only Italytook the EU rules more seriously, the refugee and migration pressure would be much less.” This was the catalyst forRenzi announcing that Italy might block upcoming EU budgets, should the Central and Eastern European (CEE)countries still reject refugee relocation quotas and Germany and the EU ignore Italy’s extraordinary costs frommigration.Long-term outlook“Italy feels as though it has been left to deal with Europe’s refugee and migration problem on its own. Thiscrisis is undermining Europe’s unity by facilitating the rise of populist rhetoric in the third-largest Eurozoneeconomy.”The challenge for Italy lies in tackling the diverging European visions as to how to approach the crisis. Italy expects3/5more solidarity through the pan-European relocation of refugees, which is interpreted in Central and Eastern Europeas an acceptance of unlimited refugee numbers and endless quotas for others. For Hungary, the conclusion issimple: Italy has made no serious effort to seal the border and yet expects to become a transit country for millions ofrefugees and migrants. Under such circumstances, Central and Eastern Europe are not going to accept quotas forrefugees that might never end. Budapest, Warsaw and Bratislava want solidarity at the Italian border first, and theyare willing to send troops and cash to help secure the entry points of the EU.Still, the problem is not just diverging proposals. The controversy between the EU and post-Renzi Italy has aconcrete financial basis. The renowned leftist newspaper “La Repubblica” has argued that with new debts that arehigher than expected, Italy risks sharing the fate of Greece. At the same time, refugees and migrants are stillreaching the coast of Italy in the thousands, since the EU-Turkey agreement tackles mainly the problem of the GreekIslands.For instance, in April 2016, around 6,000 refugees arrived in Italy within 4 days. Various refugee organisationsexpect that at least a further 100,000 will arrive in the first half of 2017. Moreover, according to the UNHCR, despiteall of the attempts made at containment, 2016 came close to becoming the “most fatal year in the Mediterranean”.Whilst in the previous record year of 2015, 3,771 refugees and migrants died during their attempt to reach the coastof Europe, they had counted 3,210 deaths by September.All of this has induced parts of the Italian public to cast scepticism on quick solutions, and to distrust the credibilityand reliability of Europe – not only concerning the refugee question, but in general. In such ways, Europe’s refugeeand migration crisis is undermining Europe’s unity by facilitating the rise of nationalist sentiment and populist rhetoricin the third-largest Eurozone economy. The Italian referendum on 4 December  was a vote in favour of anti-European parties and their populist leaders, who promised to end the migration crisis once and for all without theEuropean Union.As a consequence, after Renzi’s resignation, some observers fear political chaos, given most of Renzi’s reformsenvisaged in 2014-2016, including electoral, parliamentary and economic changes, are badly needed, and mayeven be reversed by his ultimate successors. Many also saw the anti-Renzi outcome of the referendum as a clearvote against current EU refugee and migration policies, a sentiment which is destined to create division and turmoil,undermining the bloc’s unity in the years to come.In sum, Italy feels as though it has been left to deal with Europe’s refugee and migration problem on its own. The EUhas not lived up to its standards of solidarity, as both Germany and the countries of Central and Eastern Europerejected Renzi’s initiatives, thus contributing to his fall and weakening the European project in the third-largest post-Brexit EU member state. With Renzi stepping down, a new period of chaos in European politics could begin.This could have far worse consequences for the EU than for Italy in the mid to long-term. Renzi’s fall suggests thatwith its own passivity concerning the refugee and migration crisis, the EU is likely to undermine its own existence.For the bloc, such self-destructive policy-making is a clear break from its self-conception as a peace project and asan enlightened and normative global power.Please read our comments policy before commenting .Note: This article gives the views of the authors, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy, norof the London School of Economics._________________________________About the authors4/5Roland Benedikter – University of Wroclaw/BreslauRoland Benedikter, Dott. Dr. Dr. Dr., is Research Professor of Multidisciplinary Political Analysis atthe Willy Brandt Centre for German and European Studies of the University of Wroclaw/Breslau,Globalization & Global Futures Scholar at the European Academy for Applied Research Bolzano-Bozen, Research Affiliate at the Global Studies Division (SGS) of Stanford University, ScientificBoard Member of the Austrian Society for European Politics Vienna, Senior Research Fellow of theCouncil on Hemispheric Affairs Washington D.C. and Trustee of the Toynbee Prize FoundationBoston. Contact: rolandbenedikter@yahoo.de.Ireneusz Pawel Karolewski – University of Wroclaw/BreslauIreneusz Pawel Karolewski, Dr., holds the Chair of Political Science at the Willy Brandt Centre forGerman and European Studies, University of Wroclaw/Breslau. He is also Adjunct Professor ofPolitical Science at the University of Potsdam, Germany. Contact: karole@uni-potsdam.de.5/5

Italy’s migration crisis is a clear threat to European unity

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