Homeowners forget about past floods when assessing flood risk and are then repeatedly caught unprepared by the next flood

Abstract

How do homeowners learn about environmental risks such as flooding? Social scientists have long observed the phenomenon that individuals appear to be surprised and unprepared for uncertain, but predictable natural disasters. New research by Justin Gallagher finds that homeowners use the incidence of a new flood to update their belief about the risks of a future flood, but do so in a way that doesn’t include all of the available past flood information. As a result, homeowners tend to forget (or “unlearn”) lessons from the past and are repeatedly caught off guard by the next flood