Or Tuttnauer, Tom Louwerse, Rudy Andeweg, and Ulrich Sieberer analyse opposition party sentiment in relation to government actions and policies during the first six months of 2020. Drawing on parliamentary debates in four countries, including the UK, they observe an initial positive opposition sentiment which turned more negative as the first wave abated

Andeweg, Rudy B.

Louwerse, Tom

Sieberer, Ulrich

Tuttnauer, Or

English

LSE Research Online

COVID-19	in	parliamentary	debates:	Oppositionsentiment	started	out	relatively	positive	towards	thegovernment	but	increasingly	became	more	negativeOr	Tuttnauer,	Tom	Louwerse,	Rudy	Andeweg,	and	Ulrich	Sieberer	analyse	opposition	party	sentiment	inrelation	to	government	actions	and	policies	during	the	first	six	months	of	2020.	Drawing	on	parliamentary	debates	infour	countries,	including	the	UK,	they	observe	an	initial	positive	opposition	sentiment	which	turned	more	negative	asthe	first	wave	abated.With	the	challenges	presented	by	the	Omicron	variant,	the	UK	government	–	as	other	governments	around	Europe–	reintroduced	restrictions	and	measures	to	further	fight	the	pandemic.	Enacting	these	measures	has	frequentlyrequired	cooperation	on	the	part	of	the	parliamentary	opposition.	Even	if	not	needed	to	enact	rules	or	legislation,opposition	support	may	be	important	for	legitimising	such	measures	and	facilitating	their	success.	This	raises	thequestion	of	how	opposition	parties	react	to	such	a	crisis.	Do	they	support	the	government	in	a	shared	effort	to	facea	common	threat?	Or	do	they	capitalise	on	the	opportunity	to	criticise	the	government’s	alleged	shortcomings,backed	by	the	constant	flow	of	negative	news?We	studied	this	question	earlier	in	the	pandemic,	looking	at	how	opposition	parties	in	four	countries	(the	UnitedKingdom,	Germany,	Israel,	and	the	Netherlands)	reacted	to	government	actions	during	the	first	six	months	of	2020.We	found	evidence	of	an	elite	‘rally	around	the	flag’	early	on,	with	positive	opposition	sentiment	towards	thegovernment,	which	turned	more	negative	in	the	following	months.	Does	this	mean	that	the	relationship	betweengovernment	and	opposition	structurally	changed	during	the	early	changes	of	the	pandemic?	And	how	will	relationsdevelop	beyond	the	first	wave	of	COVID-19?Opposition	during	a	crisisIn	early	2020,	the	pandemic	presented	a	unique	crisis	situation:	primarily	a	public	health	crisis,	but	with	importantsocial	and	economic	consequences.	It	directly	affected	not	only	the	daily	life	of	citizens	but	also	the	work	ofparliament.	Many	parliaments	scrapped	most	debates	about	non-COVID	topics,	went	partially	virtual,	and	in	somecases	also	changed	voting	procedures	and/or	the	frequency	of	parliamentary	votes,	impacting	the	way	in	whichgovernments	could	be	held	to	account	during	the	first	stages	of	the	pandemic.In	terms	of	democratic	norms,	government-opposition	relations	in	times	of	crisis	can	have	contrasting	expectationsand	effects.	On	the	one	hand,	government-opposition	consensus	on	crisis	measures	increases	their	legitimacyamong	the	public.	On	the	other	hand,	criticism	by	the	opposition	is	important	as	a	catalyst	for	public	discourse,which	is	vital	for	democracy	especially	in	times	when	governments	are	prone	to	seek	more	powers.	It	is	thereforeimportant	to	understand	how	opposition	parties	behaved	during	the	first	months	of	the	COVID-19	crisis.	To	this	end,we	analysed	opposition	parties’	speeches	during	pandemic-related	debates	during	the	first	six	months	of	2020	inthe	four	countries	mentioned.	These	cases	provide	us	with	a	diverse	set	of	established	democracies	in	terms	oftheir	political	institutions	and	the	overall	severity	of	the	crisis	(at	the	time).We	focused	on	statements	regarding	the	government’s	actions	and	constructed	a	sentiment	scale,	ranging	betweenstrongly	negative	(using	blunt	language	or	personal	attacks)	to	strongly	positive	(giving	praise	to	specificgovernment	actions).	We	manually	coded	each	paragraph	according	to	our	scale	and	used	the	average	score	of	allspeakers	who	spoke	on	behalf	of	their	party	on	a	specific	day.Rally	around	the	flagIn	line	with	a	‘rally	around	the	flag’	effect	in	public	opinion,	we	saw	that	most	opposition	parties	reacted	in	arelatively	positive	manner	in	the	early	stages	of	the	crisis	(see	Figure	1).	The	average	sentiment	towards	thegovernment	became	increasingly	negative	in	each	of	the	four	countries	as	the	COVID-19	crisis	developed.	Thedecreasing	pattern	is	most	clear	for	Germany,	while	for	other	countries	there	is	more	variation	around	an	otherwiseclearly	negative	trend.	The	estimates	for	the	UK	and	Israel	include	a	number	of	days	with	relatively	short	debates,which	explains	the	larger	variation.British Politics and Policy at LSE: COVID-19 in parliamentary debates: Opposition sentiment started out relatively positive towards the government butincreasingly became more negativePage 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-01-12Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/covid19-opposition-party-sentiment/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Comparing	opposition	sentiment	during	the	first	wave	of	COVID-19	to	a	sample	of	pre-pandemic	speeches,	we	findthat	the	sentiment	expressed	by	the	opposition	in	March	and	April	2020	is	clearly	more	positive	than	in	thesebaseline	speeches.	Expressed	sentiment	in	the	later	pandemic-related	debates	is	generally	much	closer	to	thebaseline	levels.Less	adversarialFocusing	on	the	UK,	the	cooperative	approach	was	acknowledged	during	the	very	first	debate	on	COVID-19	in	theCommons	by	the	then	Secretary	of	State	for	Health,	Matt	Hancock,	who	said:	‘I	appreciate	the	cross-partyapproach	that	is	being	taken	to	this	outbreak	as	reflected	in	the	shadow	Minister’s	remarks.’	(January	23,	2020).This	less	adversarial	style	cannot	be	explained	by	the	policy	area	concerned:	the	NHS	is	frequently	the	topic	offierce	disagreement	in	British	politics.	Now,	such	disagreement	was	referred	to	only	obliquely.	On	February	3,Jonathan	Ashworth,	the	then	Shadow	Secretary	of	State	for	Health,	commented,	for	example,	that	‘This	is	a	time	ofconsiderable	strain	on	the	NHS.	I	know	the	Secretary	of	State	and	I	disagree	on	why	this	is,	but	he	will	accept	that	itis	a	time	of	high	pressure.’As	Figure	2	shows,	the	gradual	erosion	of	support	for	the	government’s	approach	to	the	crisis	is	–	more	or	lessclearly	–	visible	for	all	opposition	parties	(with	the	exception	of	Plaid	Cymru).	This	shift	among	opposition	partiesoccurred	even	before	the	heat	of	the	crisis	was	over.	This	may	be	related	to	the	fact	that	while	most	of	the	earlydebates	dealt	with	the	public	health	response	to	COVID-19,	gradually	other	policy	domains	became	involved	aswell,	such	as	the	package	to	support	businesses	and	prevent	mass	unemployment,	and	the	disproportional	impactof	the	pandemic	on	the	ethnic	minorities.	On	such	issues,	ideological	distinctions	may	have	prompted	morenegative	rhetoric	even	early	into	the	crisis.British Politics and Policy at LSE: COVID-19 in parliamentary debates: Opposition sentiment started out relatively positive towards the government butincreasingly became more negativePage 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-01-12Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/covid19-opposition-party-sentiment/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Party	differencesWe	also	observe	relevant	differences	between	opposition	party	sentiment	on	COVID-19.	The	usual	factors	affectingthe	opposition’s	attitude	toward	the	government	in	general	–	party	ideology,	size,	and	prior	government	experience(see,	for	example	this	study)	–	played	their	typical	roles	also	in	the	debates	about	COVID-19,	even	in	the	earlieststages	of	the	crisis.	Larger	opposition	parties	with	considerable	prior	government	experience	were	more	positiveduring	the	early	stages	than	parties	without	such	experience.	Among	parties	without	prior	government	experience,larger	ones	were	more	negative	than	smaller	ones.	Ideological	divergence	from	the	government	also	increasesnegativity,	but	the	effect	is	insignificant	when	all	other	factors	are	taken	into	account.Therefore,	although	we	observe	more	positive	opposition	expressed	sentiment	early	on	in	the	COVID-19	crisis,	wefind	little	indication	that	government-opposition	relations	have	changed	qualitatively	due	to	the	crisis.A	politicised	pandemicSo,	what	can	we	glean	from	these	results	about	the	expected	relations	between	government	and	opposition	indealing	with	the	current	wave	of	the	pandemic?	We	do	not	expect	another	‘rally	around	the	flag’	in	parliamentarypolitics.	The	crisis	is	no	longer	‘new’,	parties	on	both	sides	have	had	time	to	politicise	pandemic-related	issues,	andmany	debates	around	the	handling	of	the	pandemic	now	seem	to	speak	more	to	longstanding	ideologicaldifferences	than	was	the	case	in	early	2020.	The	relatively	quick	regression	from	a	cooperative	discourse	back	to	amore	confrontational	one,	as	early	as	in	the	second	quarter	of	2020,	suggests	it	will	probably	take	a	new	anddifferent	crisis	to	initiate	another	spell	of	government-opposition	cooperation.	While	one	can	express	concern	overthe	polarisation	of	the	public	debates	on	COVID-19	measures	and	vaccination	mandates,	a	critical,	confrontationalopposition	is	not	necessarily	a	bad	thing	as	long	as	it	offers	voters	a	credible	alternative	in	terms	of	how	theauthorities	deal	with	the	COVID-19	crisis.______________________Note:	the	above	draws	on	the	authors’	published	work	in	West	European	Politics.British Politics and Policy at LSE: COVID-19 in parliamentary debates: Opposition sentiment started out relatively positive towards the government butincreasingly became more negativePage 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-01-12Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/covid19-opposition-party-sentiment/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/About	the	AuthorsOr	Tuttnauer	is	Alexander	von	Humboldt	Fellow	in	the	Mannheim	Centre	for	European	Social	Research	at	theUniversity	of	Mannheim.Tom	Louwerse	is	Associate	Professor	of	Political	Science	in	the	Institute	of	Political	Science	at	Leiden	University.Ulrich	Sieberer	is	Professor	of	Empirical	Political	Science	at	the	University	of	Bamberg.Rudy	B.	Andeweg	is	Emeritus	Professor	of	Political	Science	at	Leiden	University.		Photo	by	Branimir	Balogović	on	Unsplash.British Politics and Policy at LSE: COVID-19 in parliamentary debates: Opposition sentiment started out relatively positive towards the government butincreasingly became more negativePage 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2022-01-12Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/covid19-opposition-party-sentiment/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/

COVID-19 in parliamentary debates: opposition sentiment started out relatively positive towards the government but increasingly became more negative

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COVID-19 in parliamentary debates: opposition sentiment started out relatively positive towards the government but increasingly became more negative

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