As part of our series covering key Senate races in the 2016 election, Tom Sutton and Barbara Palmer take a close look at Ohio’s election, where former Governor Ted Strickland is challenging the incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman. While Portman was initially considered to be vulnerable, he is now nearly 15 percentage points ahead of Strickland, a lead which may be down to the GOP Senator’s superior fundraising and the funding of attack ads by outside campaign groups

Palmer, Barbara

Sutton, Tom

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11/3/2016Running a traditional ‘textbook’ campaign, Rob Portman has acommanding lead in Ohio’s Senate race, in spite of DonaldTrump.blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016/11/03/running-a-traditional-textbook-campaign-rob-portman-has-a-commanding-lead-in-ohios-senate-race-in-spite-of-donald-trump/As part of our series covering key Senate races in the 2016 election, Tom Sutton and BarbaraPalmer take a close look at Ohio’s election, where former Governor Ted Strickland is challengingthe incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman. While Portman was initially considered to bevulnerable, he is now nearly 15 percentage points ahead of Strickland, a lead which may be down tothe GOP Senator’s superior fundraising and the funding of attack ads by outside campaign groups. Ohio, the ultimate battleground for presidential races, has been the setting for a remarkablymundane race for the US Senate. Dominated in statewide campaigns by successful Republicancandidates, currently all Ohio statewide officeholders, with the exception of US Senator SherrodBrown (D) and one state Supreme Court seat, are held by Republicans, as are twelve of its sixteenUS House seats.  However, early in the 2016 election cycle, Democrats targeted incumbent SenatorRob Portman (R) in their quest to regain a majority in the US Senate.  Portman, running for hissecond term, was initially deemed vulnerable, facing former governor Ted Strickland.Portman began the 2016 race with middling approval ratings and low name recognition, despitehaving served for five years in the Senate. Prior to that, he was Director of the Office of Management and Budgetand US Trade Representative in the George W. Bush administration, which in turn had followed six terms as a USHouse member from the Cincinnati area.Strickland is also a former member of the US House (he and Portman actually served together) and was electedgovernor of Ohio in 2006 but was defeated by John Kasich in 2010.  Strickland quickly became the endorsedcandidate for the Ohio Democratic Party for US Senate in 2016, believing that his experience, name recognition,and moderate record in Congress and as governor would appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. Strickland also had close ties to the Clinton campaign, which was expected to be a plus factor in the campaign.The race was competitive through mid-July, with the candidates each at about 40 percent support.  Portman beganto pull ahead after the Republican National Convention, getting a slight bump to a three point lead.  Ironically,Portman’s lead grew more after the Democratic National Convention, and continued to build unabated to a doubledigit lead in early September.  As of October 31st, he was 14.5 points ahead of Strickland (51.3 percent Portman,36.3 percent Strickland).  How did Portman build such a lead in the space of two months?  The answer lies incampaign spending, a weak campaign by Strickland, and an effective text-book campaign strategy by Portman.1/3As of September 30th, the Portman campaign has raised $24.4 million, and had a balance of $7.7 million.  TheStrickland campaign has raised only $10 million, and had a balance of $598,658 as of October 19.  Given thatPortman is the incumbent, it is not a big surprise that he has had more success raising direct contributions.However, the broader fight for control of the Senate has attracted outside funding for both campaigns, pushing theOhio race to break records for campaign spending in the state.  An additional $35.6 million has been spent bygroups supporting Strickland, and $15.4 million more by groups supporting Portman.  The largest amounts camefrom the pro-Democrat Senate Majority PAC ($9.5 million) and the pro-Republican Freedom Partners Action Fund($9.4 million).  Major contributors to these funds include billionaires George Soros and Charles and David Koch. The combined totals initially made for a much more competitive race, with funds for Strickland at $45.6 million, and$39.8 million for Portman.Over 46,000 TV ads for the Ohio Senate race have aired, the most of any Senate race, and 88 percent of these werefunded by outside campaign groups.  Advertising against Strickland appeared to be more effective, focusing on theloss of 350,000 jobs during his term as governor.  Despite the fact that this was during the Great Recession, whenmillions of jobs were lost across the country, the negative attack resonated with Ohioans, who have also beenattracted to the pro-jobs, anti-free trade positions of the Trump campaign.  In another irony, Portman, despite being afree-trade advocate and former US Trade Representative, came out against the unpopular TransPacific Partnership(TPP) trade agreement.  Pro-Strickland groups and the Strickland campaign have focused on Portman’s support forNAFTA and claims of 320,000 manufacturing jobs lost since the 1993 agreement, but to little avail.When Portman’s lead grew in September, contributors on both sides pulled back.  The Freedom Partners ActionFund cancelled $3 million in ad buys, confident that Portman’s campaign had a comfortable lead.  The SenateMajority PAC (supporting Democratic candidates) cancelled $2 million in ad buys, redirecting funds to other tightSenate races.  The Strickland campaign pulled all ads out of 10 of the 12 TV markets in Ohio in mid-September,which meant reliance on free media coverage of live events.  Given these developments, it is little wonder that Ohiois no longer a competitive Senate race.Strickland has tried to attack Portman by associating him with Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, but this alsoappears to have been ineffective.  Portman seems to be one of the few Republican candidates who has been able tosuccessfully navigate the Trump presidential candidacy.  Portman initially endorsed Trump, but has never appearedwith him publicly and never mentions him on the campaign trail. Portman then withdrew his endorsement October2/38th after release of the 2005 video of Trump’s derogatory, sexual comments about women. The most recent pollshave Ohio as a toss-up in the presidential race, but give Trump a slight edge, suggesting that many voters will besplitting their tickets, given Portman’s large lead.Perhaps what is most surprising about this race is, in fact, its banality, putting it in sharp contrast to the presidentialcampaign.  Both of the candidates have traditional backgrounds and qualifications.  Both of the candidates arerunning traditional campaigns.  Both of the candidates have personalities that could, at best, be described as “lowkey.”  While many academics, journalists, and political consultants have suggested that the 2016 presidentialcampaign is like nothing they have ever seen before, the Senate race in Ohio has been extraordinarily ordinary. Featured image: Senator Rob Portman Credit: Gage Skidmore (Flickr, CC-BY-SA-2.0)Please read our comments policy before commenting.  Note:  This article gives the views of the authors, and not the position of USAPP– American Politics and Policy, nor ofthe London School of Economics.  Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/2e4RIqG______________________About the authorsTom Sutton – Baldwin Wallace UniversityDr. Tom Sutton is professor of Political Science at Baldwin Wallace University and holds the BurtonD. Morgan Chair in Entrepreneurial Studies.  He is director of the Community Research Institute,which conducts public opinion surveys for government and nonprofit agencies and mediaorganizations. Dr. Sutton serves as a political analyst for WEWS Newschannel 5, the local ABCaffiliate, as well as providing elections analysis a variety of national, state, and local media,including the NPR affiliate WCPN 90.3 FM and The Plain Dealer.Barbara Palmer – Baldwin Wallace UniversityDr. Barbara Palmer is professor of Political Science at Baldwin Wallace University and an expert oncongressional elections and the success of female candidates.  Her most recent book, with DennisSimon, is Women and Congressional Elections:  A Century of Change  (2012, Lynne RiennerPress).  She is also the creator and Executive Director of the Baldwin Wallace Center for Womenand Politics of Ohio.CC BY-NC 3.0 2015 LSE USAPP3/3

Running a traditional ‘textbook’ campaign, Rob Portman has a commanding lead in Ohio’s Senate race, in spite of Donald Trump.

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