Cole, Steven J.

Moore, Robert J.

Wells, Steven C.

NERC Open Research Archive

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 18, EGU2016-16175, 2016EGU General Assembly 2016© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use inoperations and investment planning over England and WalesRobert J Moore, Steven C Wells, and Steven J ColeCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK (rm@ceh.ac.uk)It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in responseto local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systemsmature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation,gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence.Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at acatchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when anintegrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment inflood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring.This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance hasbeen developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineeringconsultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessedwhich, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast andobserved hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. Onedisplay provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statisticsinclude skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicatingtheir probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting.The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function)and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the nationalG2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area-wide coverage across the fluvial rivers ofEngland and Wales, which can be assessed at gauged sites. Thus the performance of the national G2G modelforecasts can be directly compared with that from the local models.The Performance Summary for each site model is complemented by a national spatial analysis of modelperformance stratified by model-type, geographical region and forecast lead-time. The map displays provide anextensive evidence-base that can be interrogated, through a Flood Forecasting Model Performance web portal, toreveal fresh insights into comparative performance across locations, lead-times and models.This work was commissioned by the Environment Agency in partnership with Natural Resources Walesand the Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales.

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/513823/1/N513823AB.pdf

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

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