Funding Information China Scholarship Council. Grant Number: 201606350028 Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. Grant Number: BBS/E/W/0012843A Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs UK Research Council NERC. Grant Numbers: ADVENT, 1806209, FAB-GGR (NE/P019951/1)Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Bullard M.

Dong M.

FAO/IIASA

Liu J.

NDRC (National Development and Reform Committee), CNREC (China National Renewable Energy Centre)

Xue S.

Zhuang J.

GCB Bioenergy

English

Spatially explicit farm-gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost–supply curves. The average farm-gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%-15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm-gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha, the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm-gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63￥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value)

Zhang, Bingquan

Hastings, Astely

Clifton-Brown, John C.

Jiang, Dong

Faaij, André

NARCIS 

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm‐gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China

Funding Information China Scholarship Council. Grant Number: 201606350028 Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. Grant Number: BBS/E/W/0012843A Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs UK Research Council NERC. Grant Numbers: ADVENT, 1806209, FAB-GGR (NE/P019951/1)Peer reviewe

Hastings, Astley

Clifton-Brown, John C

Faaij, André P C

Aberdeen University Research

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm-gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China

University of Groningen

Spatially explicit farm-gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost–supply curves. The average farm-gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus &amp; Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%-15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus &amp; Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus &amp; Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm-gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha, the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm-gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63￥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).</p

ARTS repository - University of Groningen

Crossref

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm‐gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus

https://aura.abdn.ac.uk/bitstream/2164/14255/1/zhang_et_al_spatiotemporal_assessment_global_change_biology_vor.pdf

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm-gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China

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NARCIS

Aberdeen University Research

University of Groningen

University of Groningen

ARTS repository - University of Groningen

ARTS repository - University of Groningen

Crossref