Balkovi, J.

Beer, C.

Cameron, D.R.

Ciais, P.

Cramer, W.

Kato, T.

Kuhnert, Matthias

Martin, R.

Mynemi, R.

Ramming, A.

Rolinski, S.

Soussana, J.-F.

Thonicke, K.

van der Velde, M.

van Oijen, M.

Xu, L.

English

We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems.The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation– Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by processbasedvegetation models. We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for  18 000 grid cells of 0.25 0.25  across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration(Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration. In this analysis, climate change leads to increased droughtrisks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15 %. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 gCm2 d1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80 %

Van Oijen, Marcel

Balkovic, J.

Beer, Christian

Cameron, D. R.

Ciais, Philippe

Cramer, Wolfgang

Kato, Toshihide

Kuhnert, M.

Martin, Raphaël

Myneni, R.

Rammig, Anja

Rolinski, Susanne

Soussana, Jean-François

Thonicke, Kirsten

Van Der Velde, M.

Archive Ouverte en Sciences de l'Information et de la Communication

Impact of droughts on the C-cycle in European vegetation:A probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

Identifiant Hal : hal-01136286We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems.The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation– Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by processbasedvegetation models. We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for  18 000 grid cells of 0.25 0.25  across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration(Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration. In this analysis, climate change leads to increased droughtrisks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15 %. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 gCm2 d1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80 %

Hal-Diderot

We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon
fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed
framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach,
risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem
vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from
the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is
calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based
vegetation models.

We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH,
LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests:
BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000
and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations
and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B
scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid
cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought
vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net
primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration
(Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration.

In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net
primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate
that risk will exceed 15%. The risks increase mainly because of greater
drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent.
Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will
also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1
according to most models, amounting to reductions in
carbon sequestration of 20 to 80%

M. Van Oijen

J. Balkovi

C. Beer

D. R. Cameron

P. Ciais

W. Cramer

T. Kato

M. Kuhnert

R. Martin

R. Myneni

A. Rammig

S. Rolinski

J.-F. Soussana

K. Thonicke

M. Van der Velde

L. Xu

Directory of Open Access Journals

Biogeosciences

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models.

We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration.

In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15%. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80%

Van Oijen, M.

Rammig, A.

Van der Velde, M.

Repositorium für Naturwissenschaften und Technik  (TIB Hannover)

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: A probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

van Oijen, Marcel

van Der Velde, M.

HAL-INSU

Abstract. We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models. We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for ~ 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 × 0.25° across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration. In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15%. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g C m−2 d−1 according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80%.</jats:p

Crossref

We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models. We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for similar to 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration. In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15 %. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g Cm-2 d(-1) according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80 %.</p

Beer, Christian,

Soussana, J. -F

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Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation : a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

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https://hal.science/hal-01136286v1/document

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation : a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

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