In this paper a demand time series is analysed to support Make-To-Stock (MTS)
and Make-To-Order (MTO) production decisions. Using a purely MTS production
strategy based on the given demand can lead to unnecessarily high inventory
levels thus it is necessary to identify likely MTO episodes.
This research proposes a novel outlier detection algorithm based on special
density measures. We divide the time series' histogram into three clusters. One
with frequent-low volume covers MTS items whilst a second accounts for high
volumes which is dedicated to MTO items. The third cluster resides between the
previous two with its elements being assigned to either the MTO or MTS class.
The algorithm can be applied to a variety of time series such as stationary and
non-stationary ones.
We use empirical data from manufacturing to study the extent of inventory
savings. The percentage of MTO items is reflected in the inventory savings
which were shown to be an average of 18.1%.Comment: demand analysis; time series; outlier detection; production strategy;
Make-To-Order(MTO); Make-To-Stock(MTS); 15 pages, 9 figure
