An unknown signal plus white noise is observed at n discretetime points. Within a large convex class of linear estimators of the signal, we choose the one which minimizes estimated quadratic risk. By construction,the resulting estimator is nonlinear. This estimation is done after orthogonal transformation of the data to a reasonable coordinate system. The procedure adaptively tapers the coefficients of the transformed data. If the class of candidate estimators satisfies a uniform entropy condition, then our estimator is asymptotically minimax in Pinsker's sense over certain ellipsoids in the parameter space and dominates the James-Stein estimatorasymptotically. We describe computational algorithms for the modulation estimator and construct confidence sets for the unknown signal.These confidence sets are centered at the estimator, have correctasymptotic coverage probability, and have relatively small risk asset-valued estimators of the signal
