GLMs relating penguin demographics to pelagic catches close to islands and to pelagic abundance

Abstract

Earlier GLM analyses of the impact of pelagic fishing in the vicinities of Robben and Dassen Islands on the dynamics of penguins breeding on those islands are extended to cover a wider set of data series, and to consider relationships involving sardine and anchovy separately as well as together. This in turn allows the estimation of the change in penguin population growth rate to be expected from suspending pelagic fishing in the vicinities of these islands. Interpretation of results is confounded by poor precision which is a consequence of the shortness of the time series. Likely the most that could be said with some confidence is that the results of the analyses do not support the hypothesis that suspending fishing around Robben and Dassen Islands would enhance penguin reproductive success there

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