Figure 1 shows the histogram of the projected range of future hydroacoustic survey estimates of sardine 1+ biomass that were simulated during the testing of OMP-08 (de Moor and Butterworth 2008) and Interim OMP-13 v2 (de Moor and Butterworth 2013). Assuming a single sardine stock hypothesis, the cumulative simulated probability of obtaining a survey estimate of sardine 1+ biomass of less than 750 thousand tons was simulated to be 21% under OMP-08 and 29% under Interim OMP-13 v2. Assuming a two sardine stock hypothesis, the cumulative probability of obtaining a survey estimate of sardine 1+ biomass of less than 750 thousand tons was simulated to be 86-87% under “MoveE1 ” and “MoveB2 ” and 24% under “NoMove3 ”
