Managing the Hydra in integration: developing an integrated assessment tool for agricultural systems

Abstract

Keywords: modelling, bio-economic, farm, simulation, ontology, knowledge management, Europe, agricultural management, database, scenario Ex-ante assessment through science-based methods can provide insight into the impacts of potential policy measures or innovations to manage complex problems (e.g. environmental pollution, climate change, or farmers’ welfare). Integrated Assessment and Modelling (IAM) is a method that supports ex-ante assessment through modelling and modelling tools. One type of IAM links models focusing on particular processes on a specific scale into model chains covering multiple scales and disciplines. To achieve an operational model chain for IAM, methodological, semantic and technical integration is required of models, data sources, indicators and scenarios. In this thesis, methodological, semantic and technical integration focuses on two case studies. The first case study is on integration within bio-economic farm models covering two hierarchical systems levels involving a small team of scientists. The second case refers to modelling European agricultural systems. In this case, the integration covers five hierarchical systems levels and different types of models were linked by a large team of about hundred scientists. In the context of these two case studies, many different integration topics and challenges have been addressed: a review of the state-of-the-art in bio-economic farm models, a generic method to define alternative agricultural activities, development of a generic bio-economic farm model, development of an integrated database for agricultural systems, linking different agricultural models and a shared definition of scenarios across disciplines, models and scales. Ultimately, elaborating the methodological, semantic and technical integration greatly contributed to the development of an integrated assessment tool for European agricultural systems. This integrated assessment tool can be used across disciplines and for multi-scale analysis, and allows the assessment of many different policy and technology changes. </p