Hurkmans, R.T.W.L.

Uijlenhoet, R.

English

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Climate change modeling on Rhine discharge : Extremely low water levels in the Rhine, occurring more often, cause problems for water supply and navigation

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WWW.CLIMATERESEARCHNETHERLANDS.NL    45 
Climate 
change 
modeling 
on Rhine 
discharge
Extremely low water levels 
in the Rhine, occurring  
more often, cause problems  
for water supply and 
navigation. 
Climate scenarios suggest that Rhine 
river discharges in winter and spring 
may have increased by about ??% by the 
end of the century, whereas in summer 
and autumn they can decrease by about 
??%. In addition, the snow melt season 
starts up to ? months earlier in the year, 
and snow storage in the Alps is reduced 
dramatically.
To adapt water management in the 
Rhine basin to climate change, it is im-
portant to understand how the hydrolog-
ical regime and river discharge will be af-
fected. To investigate this, a hydrological 
model, the Variable Inﬁltration Capacity 
(VIC) model, is forced by three high-
resolution (??km) climate scenarios, 
each corresponding to a different IPCC 
storyline describing societal and techno-
logical developments. The high model 
resolution enables a better representation 
of convective (small-scale) precipitation 
events and orographic features, espe-
cially in the Alps. 
After correcting for structural errors in 
the global and regional climate models, 
the VIC-model, previously optimized 
for the Rhine basin[?], was forced by the 
climate scenarios and a reference model 
run for the ??th century. All three climate 
scenarios indicate a decrease in summer 
discharge and an increase in winter and 
spring discharge for the end of this cen-
tury, as well as  an increase in magnitude 
and frequency of streamﬂow droughts in 
summer and peak ﬂows in spring[?]. 
It should be noted that only one global, 
regional and hydrological model was 
used.  Seasonal changes in temperature 
and precipitation, are however, broadly 
consistent between models. Whereas 
increasing frequency and magnitude of 
peak ﬂows has been acknowledged in 
previous studies, the increase in summer 
droughts may have consequences for 
many sectors and perhaps pose an even 
larger challenge for adaptive manage-
ment in the Rhine basin.
RUUD HURKMANS 
recently completed his 
PhD-research at the Hydrol-
ogy and Quantitative Water 
Management group of 
Wageningen University. The 
research, of which the current article is a part, 
involves the effects of climate variability and 
land use change on the water budget of large 
river basins. He now works as a post-doc at the 
same group. 
+?? ??? ?????? / ruud.hurkmans@wur.nl
REMKO UIJLENHOET  
is Professor and Chair  
of Hydrology and Quanti-
tative Water Management 
at Wageningen University.
+?? ??? ?????? /  
remko.uijlenhoet@wur.nl
PROJECT A?? Developing Adaptive Capacity 
to Extreme events in the Rhine basin (ACER). 
PARTNERS: 
Alterra / Deltares / VU University Amsterdam 
/ Future Water / Royal Dutch Meteorological 
Institute (KNMI) / Seecon GmBh / Delft 
University of Technology / Universität 
Osnabrück / Wageningen University and 
Research Centre / Water Service, Ministry 
of Transport, Public Works and Water 
Management / Max Plank Institut für 
Meteorologie
REFERENCES
1] Hurkmans, R.T.W.L., H. de Moel, J.C.J.H. Aerts 
and P.A. Troch (2008), “Water balance versus 
land surface model in the simulation of Rhine 
river discharges”, Water Resour. Res.,44, W01418, 
doi:10.1029/2007WR006168.
2] Hurkmans, R.T.W.L., W. Terink, R. Uijlenhoet, P.J.J.F. 
Torfs, D. Jacob and P.A. Troch (2009), “Changes in 
streamﬂow dynamics in the Rhine basin under three 
high-resolution climate scenarios”, J. Climate, in press, 
doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3066.1.
A??


Climate change modeling on Rhine discharge : Extremely low water levels in the Rhine, occurring more often, cause problems for water supply and navigation

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