Haese, L., D'

Haese, M.F.C., D'

Ndimubandi, J.

Nkunzimana, T.

Speelman, S.

Vandamme, E.

English

Wageningen Yield 

0Food security in crisis: Resilience of 
farming systems in postconflict
Burundi
Marijke D’Haese, Stijn Speelman, 
Ellen Vandamme, Tharcisse Nkunzimana, Jean 
Ndimubandi and Luc D’Haese
1
2Introduction 
• Burundi among the poorest countries 
in Africa
– Population of 9 million 
– Poverty headcount: 68%
– GNI per capita PPP: 300 US$ 
– Life expectancy at birth: 50 years 
– Child mortality under 5: 63/1000 births
– HDI ranking 166 out of 169
• 90% of people work in agriculture
• Civil conflict since 1993
• Highly vulnerable to changes in the 
farming environment
3
4Expected increase in population density 
5Agriculture, food insecurity, 
vulnerability 
• Small-scale, subsistence oriented family farms
• 85% of the cultivated area under food crops
• Farming strategy 
- On-farm diversification: mixed cropping
- Self-reliance: no/limited access to food markets
- Shortage of agricultural land: demographic pressure
- Lack of income earning opportunities in agriculture and 
non-farm – limited push diversification
- Poor and decreasing performance: 
• Per capita food production 2005 was 45% of the 1993 level
6
7Vulnerability and resilience
• Threats in Burundi:
- Cyclical ethnic violence
- Malthusian checks?? 
- Households in war-hit zones: including displacement 
- Underperforming agriculture: low incentives to invest 
- Climatic change??
• Conflicts: 
- Cause food insecurity, depress (food) production and 
income from cash crops and livestock
- Poverty, hunger, food insecurity, unequal income/land 
distribution generate anger, hopelessness...fertile 
ground for grievance and conflict 
8• Study the possible impact of civil war and 
demography on the agricultural production 
• Analyse dynamics in farming practices 
• Assess socio-economic and food security 
situation 
• Interrelationship between conflict and 
change in food security
Aim of the study
9Ngozi 
• Sample taken from:
- all villages (communes)
- 8 random hills (collines) per 
village
- 4 households random 
chosen per hill
• Total 468 households in 
1996 and 640 households 
in 2007
• 116 same collines in 1996 
and 2007
Muyinga 
Data
10
Methodology 
• 116 collines vistited in 1996 - 2007
• Output: 
• Difficult to assess agricultural production:
- Multitude of fields and plots
- Large diversity in crops 
- Mixed cropping patterns
- Limited surplus sales – household consumption
Sum of food output expressed in Kcal
Banana production in kg (‘semi-cash’ crop)
Coffee production in kg (cash crop)
11
Model 
• Poverty trap?
• Erosion of assets due to conflict
• Low returns to assets – absence of alternatives and 
entry barriers
• Comparative data analysis at colline level
• Frontiers estimated with Data Envelopment 
Analysis 
• Calculate the Malmquist index for TFP change
• Changes in efficiency levels between the two 
time periods 
MTR dddAdrARdAdY   '''
12
Mean 
(std. dev)
Ngozi 
(n=360)
Muyinga 
(n=280)
Test
Age head of household (years) 41 (12.7) 42 40 Ns
Household size (nb) 5.2 (2.4) 5.8 5.6 Ns
Farm size (m²) 11,248 (16,462) 9,919 12,952 **
Farm size excl. > 3.7 ha (m²) 8,346 (8,013) 7,639 9,269 ***
Total number of plots on hill (nb) 8.4 (4.7) 8.2 8.8 *
% food production (%) 76 73 80 ***
Households coffee in 2007 (%) 58 61 55 Ns
Households banana in 2007 (%) 95 95 97 Ns
Households with cattle (%) 12 18 4.5 Ns
Some descriptives
2007 data
13
Small farm sizes & unequal 
distribution 
14
Asset levels 1996-2007
1996 data
(n=116)
2007 data
(n=160)
Household size (nb) 6.3 5.7
Involvement in paid jobs (0 to 1:yes) 0.12 0.37
Number of coffee trees (nb) 365 233
Production food crops per person (kcal/day/person) 4,342 1,494
Production bananas (kg/year) 6,042 3,882
Coffee production (kg/year) 598 441
Number of plots (nb) 13 10
Farm size (m²) 11,235 11,054
Cattle (nb) 0.76 0.73
Total expenditure (US$ value 2007) 122 181
15
VRS efficiency levels 1996
and 2007
16
Mean (std.dev.)
Malmquist index 0.65 (0.43)
Efficiency change 1.34 (1.04)
Technical change 0.52 (0.15)
Scale change 1.03 (0.27)
Efficiency score VRS 1996 0.69 (0.25)
Efficiency score VRS 2007 0.76 (0.22)
Decrease in TFP mainly 
due to worsening 
technical change
17
Determinants of MI 
quartiles
• Dependent variable: Quartile Malmquist index
• Model: ordered logit
• Results:
- Probability of scoring in the highest MI Q:
• Smaller households
• Female head of household
• Having a regular paid job
• Lower on-farm diversity (herfindahl index)
• Farm size – U shape 
• Lower efficiency scores in 1996 (improving most)
• Location in Ngozi Province
18
• Continued impoverishment
• High levels food insecurity
• Lower capacity to produce and 
purchase 
• asset loss and lower returns
• Low resilience levels of farming 
systems to shocks
• Conflict
• Climate change?  
Conclusion


Food security in crisis: resilience of farming systems in post-conflict Burundi

Name not available

Food security in crisis: resilience of farming systems in post-conflict Burundi

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Wageningen Yield

Name not available