The vulnerability of the European agriculture and food system for calamities and geopolitics : a stress test

Abstract

During the 1960s and 1970s, the EU succeeded in becoming largely self-sufficient in food production, thus assuring its food security for the most part. However, it is unclear which areas of food security are still vulnerable and/or whether there are there new vulnerabilities. In this report we have focused on emergencies and geopolitical shocks that can have a major impact on food security, i.e. food volume. We have not included emergencies that affect food safety (such as a nuclear disaster) or emergencies that have a much broader effect than on food chains alone (such as a flu pandemic or power failure)