Bocedi, Greta

Heikkinen, Risto K

Heliölä, Janne

Kuussaari, Mikko

Leikola, Niko

Pöyry, Juha

Travis, Justin M J

PLoS ONE

English

PubMed

<div><p>Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species’ capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (<i>Maniola jurtina</i>) and one generalist (<i>Issoria lathonia</i>). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.</p></div

Risto K. Heikkinen (413721)

Greta Bocedi (635801)

Mikko Kuussaari (635802)

Janne Heliölä (635803)

Niko Leikola (413723)

Juha Pöyry (635804)

Justin M. J. Travis (93889)

The Francis Crick Institute

Impacts of Land Cover Data Selection and Trait Parameterisation on Dynamic Modelling of Species’ Range Expansion

Risto K. Heikkinen

Greta Bocedi

Mikko Kuussaari

Janne Heliölä

Niko Leikola

Juha Pöyry

Justin M. J. Travis

Crossref

Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning

Risto K Heikkinen

Justin M J Travis

Directory of Open Access Journals

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

This work was supported by the SCALES project (Securing the Conservation of biodiversity across Administrative Levels and spatial, temporal, and Ecological Scales) funded by the European Commission as a Large-scale Integrating Project within FP 7 under grant 226 852 and the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA) project A-LA-CARTE (Assessing limits of adaptation to climate change and opportunities for resilience to be enhanced), funded by the Academy of Finland (decision no. 140846). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewe

The Open University

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion

https://figshare.com/articles/_Impacts_of_Land_Cover_Data_Selection_and_Trait_Parameterisation_on_Dynamic_Modelling_of_Species_8217_Range_Expansion_/1186163

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion

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The Francis Crick Institute

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Directory of Open Access Journals

The Open University