Presentation given at the Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Tampa, Florida 201

Cockings, Samantha

Martin, David

Smith, Alan

English

Southampton (e-Prints Soton)

Geography and Environment  24/7 Population modelling for natural hazard assessment  Alan Smith University of Southampton, UK Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL 11 April 2014 Background • Better population estimations are required for hazard risk assessment • Censuses typically provide a decadal ‘night-time’ population estimation • This does not take into account the large fluxes of temporary populations during the day • Events of 2011/12 have focused global attention on natural hazards and their impacts 2 3 Southampton, UK Conventional density maps Southampton 4 5  “Pop 24/7” overview • Spatio-temporal gridded population modelling – Variable kernel density estimation (KDE) – Utilises population centroids – Redistributes resident populations according to a temporal profile – Population subgroups • Removal of arbitrary administrative boundaries • Allows locations of zero population density (Eg. Water)   Space-time interpolation 6 Temporal Profile A retail example of a temporal profile derived from the Time Use Survey 2000 indicating potential shopper numbers for a given time. 0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.2000:00:00 02:30:00 05:00:00 07:30:00 10:00:00 12:30:00 15:00:00 17:30:00 20:00:00 22:30:00Time Mon-FriSaturdaySunday7 8  Results • Variable grid size, currently using 200 metre resolution • Visualization for public communication • Population weighted to background mask • Combination and analysis with hazard footprint data • Application to a UK flooding scenario, using the Environment Agency’s ‘Flood Map’.   9 10 11 Example weekday population 12 Example weekday population 13 Example weekday population 14 Example weekday population 15 Example weekday population 16 Example weekday population 17 Example weekday population 18 Example weekday population 19 20 21 22 Flood modelling (TELEMAC-2D) • Destabilized 25/07/2007 • M1 J32-34 closed 40 hours • 1000 evacuated • High voltage pylons • High pressure gas main  23 24 25  Next steps • Continued development of datasets and temporal profiles • Demonstrate improved exposure estimations • Advances in natural hazard risk management  Acknowledgments Developing the “Pop 24/7” methodologies: Professor David Martin Dr Samantha Cockings  http://www.southampton.ac.uk/geography/research/projects/space_time.page 26 Contact: Alan.Smith@soton.ac.uk  Geography and Environment University of Southampton Southampton, UK SO17 1BJ        @NatHazard  www.personal.soton.ac.uk/ads4g11    

24/7 population modelling for natural hazard assessment

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