Ghosh, T.

Hutton, C.W.

Lazar, A.N.

Nicholls, R.J.

Rahman, M.M.

Salehin, M.

Nocholls, Robert J.

Hutton, Craig

Lázár, Attila N.

Rahman, Md. Munsur

Salehin, Mashfiquis

Ghosh, Tuhin

Hydraulic Engineering Repository

Article, Published VersionNocholls, Robert J.; Hutton, Craig; Lázár, Attila N.; Rahman, Md. Munsur;Salehin, Mashfiquis; Ghosh, TuhinUnderstanding climate change and Livelihoods in coastalBangladeshHydrolinkVerfügbar unter/Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/109192Vorgeschlagene Zitierweise/Suggested citation:Nocholls, Robert J.; Hutton, Craig; Lázár, Attila N.; Rahman, Md. Munsur; Salehin,Mashfiquis; Ghosh, Tuhin (2013): Understanding climate change and Livelihoods in coastalBangladesh. In: Hydrolink 2013/2. Madrid: International Association for Hydro-EnvironmentEngineering and Research (IAHR). S. 40-42. https://iahr.oss-accelerate.aliyuncs.com/library/HydroLink/HydroLink2013_02_Sea_Level_Rise_Adaptation.pdf.Standardnutzungsbedingungen/Terms of Use:Die Dokumente in HENRY stehen unter der Creative Commons Lizenz CC BY 4.0, sofern keine abweichendenNutzungsbedingungen getroffen wurden. Damit ist sowohl die kommerzielle Nutzung als auch das Teilen, dieWeiterbearbeitung und Speicherung erlaubt. Das Verwenden und das Bearbeiten stehen unter der Bedingung derNamensnennung. Im Einzelfall kann eine restriktivere Lizenz gelten; dann gelten abweichend von den obigenNutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.Documents in HENRY are made available under the Creative Commons License CC BY 4.0, if no other license isapplicable. Under CC BY 4.0 commercial use and sharing, remixing, transforming, and building upon the materialof the work is permitted. In some cases a different, more restrictive license may apply; if applicable the terms ofthe restrictive license will be binding.40 hydrolink number 2/2013In recent years, there has been a growingconcern about the effect of climate-inducedsea-level rise on the environment, populationand livelihoods around the worlds’ coastline.However, these issues are highly spatiallyvariable, as sea level is only one of severaldrivers of coastal change (Nicholls et al 2007). It was recognised in the 1980s (Milliman et al1989) that deltaic environments are amongstthe most vulnerable coastal areas to such risebecause of their low altitude and often large,poor and growing population. Threats act on multiple scales including global(e.g. sea level rise), regional (e.g. catchmentmanagement reducing water and sedimentinput) and delta plain (e.g. water extraction,sediment starvation, natural and more impor-tantly human-induced subsidence) scales. The result of these changes might result in anincrease in flooding, salinization of waterresources and soil, land loss due to erosion,subsidence and inundation, and degrading thequality of ecosystem services such as cropproductivity, fish stocks and protection againststorm surges. Thus, delta environments arecomplex social-environmental systems wherethe change is only partially driven by sea levelrise and climate change, and human-induceddevelopment activities are also critical drivers. Drivers of coastal change in South-West BangladeshThe Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) DeltaUNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHALIVELIHOODS IN COASTAL BANGBY ROBERT J. NICHOLLS, CRAIG HUTTON, ATTILA N. LÁZÁR, MD. MUNSUR RAHMAN, MASHFIQUIS Figure 2: Physical factors affecting deltaic changesFigure 1: Location and land cover of the study area within the overall Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Deltaand wider region. is one of the world’s most dynamic and signif-icant deltas (Figure 1). The total population is inexcess of 100 million people in bothBangladesh and India (West Bengal). Thesource of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers isin the Himalayas and freshwater travels throughfive countries (China, Nepal, India, Bhutan,Bangladesh) before reaching the GBM deltaand the Bay of Bengal. The delta is changingrapidly with a growing urban populationincluding major cities such as Dhaka,Chittagong and Khulna. At the same time, thedelta has important ecosystem services whichhave allowed this large population to be fed andto steadily grow the economy (e.g. intensive ricepaddy), as well as being home to the world’slargest mangrove forest, the Sunderbans. Thestudy area in Figure 1 is extremely low and flat:the elevation ranges from 1 m on tidal flats, to 1-3 m on the main river and estuarine floodplains.Hence, it is the most vulnerable area inBangladesh and there is significant poverty ofthe 14 million inhabitants (>50%, WRI 2005).There are multiple threats from human andclimate-induced upstream, deltaic and marinechanges, recently receiving internationalattention due to its high vulnerability to climatechange (World Bank 2010) and a succession ofmajor storms and cyclones such as CycloneSidr in 2007, Cyclone Aila in 2009 or TropicalStorm Mahasen in 2013. During storm tides andin times of low river flow, salinization is also ofmajor concern.  Biophysical Considerations of the DeltaWhen considering the physical processes(Figure 2), sea level rise, erosion, river floods,cyclones, storm surges, saline intrusion,upstream damming and subsidence affects themorphology of the delta plain (Woodroffe et al.2006). Relative (or local) sea level rise isestimated to be up to 8 mm/year (Singh 2002)implying significant subsidence (i.e. the gradualsinking of an area), which is alarming although41hydrolink number 2/2013this is disputed and needs better definition.Subsidence in Bangladesh is caused bytectonic movements, sediment compaction andanthropogenic changes (e.g. cropping/farmingmethods, deforestation, urbanisation, etc.).However, the other factors of coastal changemight be equally important. Erosion is a conse-quence of river flows (i.e. bank erosion), waves,and overland flows during heavy rainfall andflooding. River floods mainly occur during thewet season, when a large volume of water isreceived from the upstream catchments. Thisresults in 10-68% inundation of Bangladeshannually (FFWC, Salehin et al. 2007). Cyclonesand storm surges also occur frequently, causingincreased erosion, crop/livestock losses andinundation of land with saline water. This furtherincreases the already serious salinity issue,which has a detrimental effect on the agricultureproduction. If land becomes saline, there is littleoption what the land can be used for in thefuture: producing limited saline tolerant crops orturning the field into a shrimp farm. Thedamming of upstream river reaches and waterdiversion to irrigation and other uses in Indiasignificantly reduce the amount of incomingfreshwater and sediment during the dry season,which allows greater saltwater intrusion. Thissituation is further worsening by polderisation incoastal Bangladesh, where the land issurrounded by embankments to keep the salinetidal sea water and river flood water out of theagriculture fields. The long-term downside ofpolderisation is that river floods do not depositnutrient rich sediments on the fields and siltationtakes place in the rivers as a result of thedecrease in tidal volume during flood tides.Hence, elevation is lost through rise in river bedelevation and subsidence (making drainagemore difficult and increasing potential flooddepths and waterlogging) and the soil qualitygradually decreases unless expensive fertilisersare purchased. Socio-Economic Context of the DeltaThere is growing socio-environmental stress onthe delta. Populations are undergoing complexshifts in behaviour with net migration out of thedelta region to the main cities. This process isIAHRHANGE AND NGLADESHIS SALEHIN, TUHIN GHOSHTuhin Ghosh is afaculty memberin School ofOceanographicStudies,JadavpurUniversity, India.His researchinterests are in the field of coastalecology, geomorphology, disastermanagement and ICZM. His interest isin the socio-ecological research alongwith the climate change impacts andpossible adaptation strategies.MashfiqusSalehin’sresearchfocuses onhydrologicmodelling ofwater resourcesat regional andnational levels, hydrogeologicanalysis of coastal aquifers andsaltwater intrusion, and flood hazard,vulnerability and risk analysis. He hasa major interest in socio-eco-technicalapproaches to water managementand transboundary waterissues.Mashfiqus is a Professor atInstitute of Water and FloodManagement (IWFM) of BangladeshUniversity of Engineering andTechnology (BUET).Munsur Rahmanfocuses hisresearch onRiver andcoastal proces-ses and mana-gement, morpho-dynamics ofriverine and coastal ecosystem andrelated issues. He is interested inEcosystem services of river, coastsand floodplain system throughblending of Indigenous and scientificapproach. Munsur is a Professor atInstitute of Water and FloodManagement (IWFM), BangladeshUniversity of Engineering andTechnology (BUET). Attila N. Lazar is aResearch Fellow atthe University ofSouthampton, UK,working as theintegrativemodeller of theESPA Deltasproject. His research interest lies in themathematical representation ofcomplex systems such as sedimenttransport, aquatic ecological interac-tions and socio-ecological connections. Craig Hutton’sresearch,applied research& consultancyfocus lies at theintersectionbetween theenvironment andsocial implications of environmental/climate change and management forsustainable development. This socio-environmental  research emphasizesthe implications of climatechange/environmental vulnerability ofcommunities, land cover and earthobservation in decision-makingsupport systemsManagement (IWFM)of Bangladesh University ofEngineering and Technology (BUET).Robert J.Nicholls focuseshis research onto managing andadapting to theconsequences ofcoastal change,particularly floodand erosion management and climatechange. He is interested in large-scale morphological behaviour andthe integrated assessment of coastalareas. Robert is professor of coastalengineering at the University ofSouthampton. He led the coastalchapter of the 4th Assessment Reportof the IPCC (2007).42 hydrolink number 2/2013complex and a number of factors are involved.Shrimp farming is becoming an attractive optionwhere salinity has risen, but is becoming recog-nised as a temporary solution with inequitabledistribution of benefits away from the poor andprogressively landless. Extreme events cancause immediate catastrophic financial situa-tions for families, and there is only a limitedsafety net for the poorest. However, the growthsof flood warnings and cyclone shelters havegreatly reduced the death toll during extremefloods and cyclones. Bio-physical processesplay an important role in people’s lives. Cropproductivity, forest goods, fish stocks andarsenic pollution of groundwater resources aredirectly affecting the livelihoods of thepopulation. Governance DimensionsEach component of the ecosystem (i.e. water,fisheries, vegetation, forests and wildlife, etc.) isgoverned by a different legal regime which willbe identified. Laws and institutions rarely includecross-cutting issues and are often confinedwithin sectorial boundaries.  This is somewhatcompounded by a fragmented legal regime andinconsistencies within laws and regulations.Weaknesses in government planning structuresin combination with the heavy reliance on donorfunding potentially result in donor initiatedprojects that are not optimum in achievingnational goals and policies.The ESPA Deltas ProjectEnvironmental change and people’s livelihoodis complex in deltaic environments. There is alack of understanding of the relative importanceof the above factors.  The ESPA-funded“Assessing Health, Livelihoods, EcosystemServices and Poverty Alleviation In PopulousDeltas” project (2012-16,http://www.espadelta.net/) aims to address thisgap in a policy relevant way. The project wasfounded on the recognition of the interaction ofthe biophysical, governmental and socio-environmental factors unfolding on the deltaand has established an integrative researchprocess based upon these three main themes.The project is providing policy makers with theknowledge and tools to evaluate the effects ofpolicy decisions on people's livelihoods in thetidal influenced delta plain. It is beingconducted by a multidisciplinary and multi-national team (24 institutes from UK,Bangladesh, India and China) of policyanalysts, social and natural scientists andengineers using a participatory, holisticapproach to formally evaluating ecosystemservices and poverty in the context of the widerange of changes that are occurring. Theapproach is being developed in the coastalBangladesh study area (Figure 1) but isdesigned to be generic and transferable toother deltaic settings. The methodology is builtupon a combined system-based conceptuali-sation of the human-environmental interactionsand stakeholder engagement. The four majorbuilding blocks of the project are: (1) policyanalysis, (2) understanding of social interac-tions, (3) understanding of the status andchanges of the biophysical environment, and(4) integrative modelling of the system usingscenarios. The ESPA Deltas methodology is built onsubstantial stakeholder engagement anditerative learning throughout the project. There isparticipatory involvement of stakeholders (fromgovernment to civil societies) in all stages of theresearch starting from the identification ofresearch questions to developing scenarios andexploring these within model frameworks. Thisensures trust, interest and willingness to partic-ipate. This integrative tool will be used as aniterative learning instrument to explore a rangeof climate, social and governance scenarios inclose collaboration with decision makers. Theproject will identify perceived critical threats andinform policy makers of the potential benefits ofpolicy changes to promote sustainability, toreduce poverty and to embrace integratedmanagement. ReferencesMilliman, J.D., Broadus, J.M., Gable, F., 1989. Environmental andEconomic Implications of Rising Sea Level and SubsidenceDeltas: The Nile and Bengal Examples, Ambio 18, pp. 340–345.Nicholls, R.J., Wong, P.P., Burkett, V.R., Codignotto, J.O., Hay, J.E.,McLean, R.F., Ragoonaden, S., Woodroffe, C.D. (2007) Coastalsystems and low-lying areas. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F.,Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E. (eds.) ClimateChange 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contributionof Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK, 315-356.Salehin, M., Haque, A., Rahman, M.R., Khan, M.S.A., Bala, S.K.(2007). Hydrological Aspects of 2004 Floods in Bangladesh,Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, 4(1):33-44.Singh, O.P. 2002. Spatial variation of sea level trend along theBangladesh coast. Marine Geodesy, 25:205-212.Woodroffe, C.N., Nicholls, R.J., Saito, Y., Chen, Z., Goodbred, S.L.(2006) Chapter 10: Landscape Variability And The Response OfAsian Megadeltas To Environmental Change. In: N. Harvey (ed.),Global Change and Integrated Coastal Management, 277–314.2006 Springer.World Bank. 2010. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change(EACC) Report, Bangladesh, 2010.http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/EACC_Bangladesh.pdf World Resources Institute (WRI) 2005. in collaboration with UnitedNations Development Programme, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, and World Bank (2005). World Resources 2005: TheWealth of the Poor—Managing Ecosystems to Fight Poverty. WRI:Washington, DC.Abstract submission is now open!invites you to submit an abstractphoto by tony arborino

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Understanding climate change and Livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh

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Understanding climate change livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh

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