The dynamic aperture (D.A.) of the LHC is estimated by tracking a thin-lens model of the lattice over a real machine time of 9 seconds. This raw result is then processed to predict the D.A. over longer times and realistic conditions. We discuss the reliability and limits of the method, the phenomena limiting the D.A. and scaling laws used for fast estimates. The long-term dynamic aperture at injection is close to the requirements, with prospects of further improvements