The reliability of a phylogenetic inference method from genomic sequence data
is ensured by its statistical consistency. Bayesian inference methods produce a
sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution given sequence
data. Hence the question of statistical consistency of such methods is
equivalent to the consistency of the summary of the sample. More generally,
statistical consistency is ensured by the tree space used to analyse the
sample.
In this paper, we consider two standard parameterisations of phylogenetic
time-trees used in evolutionary models: inter-coalescent interval lengths and
absolute times of divergence events. For each of these parameterisations we
introduce a natural metric space on ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We compare
the introduced spaces with existing models of tree space and formulate several
formal requirements that a metric space on phylogenetic trees must possess in
order to be a satisfactory space for statistical analysis, and justify them. We
show that only a few known constructions of the space of phylogenetic trees
satisfy these requirements. However, our results suggest that these basic
requirements are not enough to distinguish between the two metric spaces we
introduce and that the choice between metric spaces requires additional
properties to be considered. Particularly, that the summary tree minimising the
square distance to the trees from the sample might be different for different
parameterisations. This suggests that further fundamental insight is needed
into the problem of statistical consistency of phylogenetic inference methods.Comment: Minor changes. This version has been published in JTB. 27 pages, 9
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