This paper uses stochastic dominance principles to construct upper and lower
sample path bounds for Hidden Markov Model (HMM) filters. Given a HMM, by using
convex optimization methods for nuclear norm minimization with copositive
constraints, we construct low rank stochastic marices so that the optimal
filters using these matrices provably lower and upper bound (with respect to a
partially ordered set) the true filtered distribution at each time instant.
Since these matrices are low rank (say R), the computational cost of evaluating
the filtering bounds is O(XR) instead of O(X2). A Monte-Carlo importance
sampling filter is presented that exploits these upper and lower bounds to
estimate the optimal posterior. Finally, using the Dobrushin coefficient,
explicit bounds are given on the variational norm between the true posterior
and the upper and lower bounds