SolarStat: Modeling Photovoltaic Sources through Stochastic Markov Processes

Abstract

In this paper, we present a methodology and a tool to derive simple but yet accurate stochastic Markov processes for the description of the energy scavenged by outdoor solar sources. In particular, we target photovoltaic panels with small form factors, as those exploited by embedded communication devices such as wireless sensor nodes or, concerning modern cellular system technology, by small-cells. Our models are especially useful for the theoretical investigation and the simulation of energetically self-sufficient communication systems including these devices. The Markov models that we derive in this paper are obtained from extensive solar radiation databases, that are widely available online. Basically, from hourly radiance patterns, we derive the corresponding amount of energy (current and voltage) that is accumulated over time, and we finally use it to represent the scavenged energy in terms of its relevant statistics. Toward this end, two clustering approaches for the raw radiance data are described and the resulting Markov models are compared against the empirical distributions. Our results indicate that Markov models with just two states provide a rough characterization of the real data traces. While these could be sufficiently accurate for certain applications, slightly increasing the number of states to, e.g., eight, allows the representation of the real energy inflow process with an excellent level of accuracy in terms of first and second order statistics. Our tool has been developed using Matlab(TM) and is available under the GPL license at[1].Comment: Submitted to IEEE EnergyCon 201