AIC, Cp and estimators of loss for elliptically symmetric distributions

Abstract

In this article, we develop a modern perspective on Akaike's Information Criterion and Mallows' Cp for model selection. Despite the diff erences in their respective motivation, they are equivalent in the special case of Gaussian linear regression. In this case they are also equivalent to a third criterion, an unbiased estimator of the quadratic prediction loss, derived from loss estimation theory. Our first contribution is to provide an explicit link between loss estimation and model selection through a new oracle inequality. We then show that the form of the unbiased estimator of the quadratic prediction loss under a Gaussian assumption still holds under a more general distributional assumption, the family of spherically symmetric distributions. One of the features of our results is that our criterion does not rely on the speci ficity of the distribution, but only on its spherical symmetry. Also this family of laws o ffers some dependence property between the observations, a case not often studied