International Tourists’ Expenditures In Thailand: A Modelling Of The Arfima-Figarch Approach

Abstract

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand for the period 2009-2010. The results of this research for this period confirms that the best forecasting method based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) method is the ARFIMA(1,-0.672,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.180,1) method. Furthermore, this method predicts the expenditures of tourists in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will be constant or decline. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thailand government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop the tourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailand.Thailand, ARFIMA-FIGARCH method, International Tourists’ Expenditure